Play ball!; Wall Street hearts casinos

Handwaving questions about maintaining player safety and how to recompense their employees, Major League Baseball rolled out a plan for belatedly starting the 2020 season around the traditional All-Star Break. The owners are not without their priorities: The sacred Designated Hitter will be imposed on National League teams, probably as a backdoor way of making that odious position universal to the game. 82 games would be played to empty stadiums, mostly home fields with some spring-training facilities and neutral sites mixed in. Playoffs would be widened to 14 teams, in another suspicion-raising move and the Fall Classic would hopefully be played in October. A two-week spring training would start in a month. Leagues would be realigned in such a way that one would see the Boston Red Sox playing the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins (nothing says ‘baseball’ like that traditional Beantown-Miami rivalry), Tampa Bay Rays and, oh yes, the New York Yankees. The Toronto Blue Jays would play in the great Canadian city of Dunedin, Florida. There will probably be no All-Star Game nor minor-league season, players from the latter being folded into MLB supplemental “taxi squads.”

Testing will be a headache. As the Red Sox’s J.D. Martinez said, “Everyone would need to get tested—players, coaches, the media, security guards. If you come in the ballpark, you get tested. I’m not an expert on this virus, but you need daily testing.” At least players would be offered a 50% revenue split but the players’ union sees that as the nose of the salary-cap camel poking its way into the MLB tent. The shortened-season plan, by the way, hews closely to the most elaborate of three scenarios outlined by iGaming Player. Give them kudos for prescience.

With the confidence of either the extremely well-informed or the completely insane, NFL owners have published their own 256-game schedule. The heavy-contact sport will ostensibly resume with a September 10 reprise of the most exciting 2020 playoff gaming, pitting the Houston Texans against the Kansas City Chiefs. The newfangled Las Vegas Raiders start on the road against the talent-denuded Carolina Panthers, stay on the road for a Monday-nighter against the New Orleans Saints, schlep to Massachusetts to play the New England Patriots, then finally get to christen Allegiant Stadium on October 4 against the Buffalo Bills. They finish the season—guess what?—on the road again, in Denver.

As for fans in the stands, Miami Dolphins CEO Tom Garfinkle has a plan. It involves A) staggered admission to the stadium; B) a 75% cut in attendance; C) mandatory face-mask wearing at all times; D) concessions would have to be ordered by mobile phone and picked up when ready “to eliminate concession lines.” Good luck with all that, especially if you try to enforce social-distancing rules on Raider Nation. We don’t encourage dissident behavior—quite the opposite—but rowdy football fans are going to be a challenge to manage.

* Defying the odds, gaming stocks have staged a comeback in the face of Coronavirus-forced lockdowns. April—a month with no revenue—has seen double-digit gains or “It’s crazy,” as Innovation Capital Managing Director Matt Sodl says.“They’re not trading on fundamentals. This is hope—the silver lining around when the industry can get back open.” Adds Stifel Nicholas veep Brad Boyer, “This had never happened before. And these guys were leveraged going into this. So there were concerns about solvency and [debt] covenants.” So what impelled Wall Street‘s newfound confidence? Liquidity. Casino companies had plenty of it and were prepared to get through the income drought. Boyer predicts a brief “sugar high” for the industry: “I’ve been talking to these guys, and what I’m hearing is there’s huge pent-up demand, especially in the regional casinos. People were used to going to these properties, in a lot of cases, at least once a week. The people who have a social predisposition to go to casinos, the frequent players, that portion of the industry, is going to come back. I think the initial numbers can look pretty good.”

He explains, “People who may have wanted to go to Vegas won’t want to travel. If you’re in Denver you’re going to take the drive up the mountain to Black Hawk.” Boyer adds that the same holds true for tribal casinos. But … “Any market where travel is key, you’re going to see lingering softness there.” Besides, people are going to have to get used to walking down the Las Vegas Strip amidst gaggles of people wearing masks, to say nothing of a rethought nightclub experience. But if you’re sitting in a trance in front of a slot machine the experience is the same as it was on March 1.”

His prescription is for cost cuts to be made—and passed on to the consumer, telling investors that the company is growing; less reliance on conventions, no more $12 bottles of Fiji Water and, for Pete’s sake, no more resort and parking fees. Will Big Gaming listen? We’re not betting on it.

* Friday is the date certain that Harrah’s Ak-Chin and Fort McDowell Casino reopen, with new social-distancing policies in place. Harrah’s plans are pretty standard by now: spaced-out slot machines and fewer players at the blackjack tables. No poker, keno or bingo. Employees will be masked. Bingo will resume at Fort McDowell on May 22, the casino having promised an “aggressive new health and sanitation program.” This will include temperature screenings of guests upon entry. Employees will wear gloves and masks. Talking Stick Resort is holding off until June 1, while all other Arizona casinos remain on the shelf for now.

* The Covid-impelled cash crunch on casino companies could spell the end of some of their would-be ventures in Japan. What to do? Global Market Advisors analyst Brendan Bussmann recommends yet further delay of the decade-long process. Say not so!