New York state of mind; Moody blues for Las Vegas

Like Massachusetts casinos, those in New York are not expected to reopen until July. Lago Resort & Casino General Manager Lance Young told journalist James Rutherford he’s monitoring reopening protocols as far away as Macao but has received no concrete guidance from the Empire State yet. “We’re all kind of talking back and forth about the things we hear from around the country, making sure we’re all aware of best practices,” he said. All told, 20 casinos and racinos in New York State have been idled by the Coronavirus pandemic, which has been at its worst in N.Y. MGM Resorts International has already indicated that its Empire City racino in Yonkers will be the Tail-End Charlie of its reopenings and Rivers Casino in Schenectady has furloughed staff through the end of June. That would make for a three-and-a-half-month hiatus. It’s also $387 million lost in VLT taxes and $34 million in casino levies. As Young tells Rutherford, they’re just hanging in there.

* Do you know the way to San José? Or Washington, D.C. or Durham, for that matter? For those are among the cities that Moody’s Analytics posits are best-poised to recover quickly from the Covid-19 fallout (whenever it dispels). Who isn’t in the elite? Who’s down at the very bottom of the chart? Las Vegas, that’s who. Even Coronavirus-swept Boston is far better positioned, as is Detroit. Low “educational attainment” is largely to blame. Yes, Nevada’s scorn for educating its citizens has finally bit it in the ass. Kind of hard to diversify the economy when you raise your children to clean hotel rooms. As though to drive the point home, in the current recession the hospitality industry has shed 47% of its jobs. Nationally, the jobless rate stands just shy of 15%, a modern worst. That includes 1 million casino workers.

Moody’s projects Nevada to have a 20% unemployment rate in July (by which time casinos should be reopened), making it the state estimated to be #1 economic victim of Covid-19. Why? It has the highest percentage of workers in high-risk industries (33.5%), is 18th in Coronavirus deaths as of April 27 and sixth-highest in unemployment claims (343,075) since mid-March. It’s also likeliest to have one of the most poorly served populaces as huge cuts in state and local programs are inevitable in the wake of the tax hole eaten by the pandemic.

Added Senior Research Economist Adam Kamins, “big densely populated cities … are going to be viewed as inherently risky.” Unlike Durham and Madison, Las Vegas isn’t built around a major university (sorry, UNLV). As for probable comeback kids Omaha and Des Moines, “But both of those actually have a pretty strong financial services sector, a fairly well educated population, especially compared to the kind of surrounding regions at lots of opportunity to kind of spread out.” Maybe the casino industry should be investing a bit more in those markets—and continuing to promote higher education at home.

* Regional casinos are expected to bounce back far more quickly than Las Vegas, apparently on the strength of young players. Synergy Blue has found that two-thirds of those under 29 are ready to play again, while the Baby Boomer crowd is much more cautious: Only 40% are primed to gamble soon. Since Boomers are the most at-risk demographic that only makes sense. The dark lining of the silver cloud: respondents plan to curtail their casino budget and only 22% are inclined to visit a casino if it entails air travel. (Good news for Atlantic City, bad news for Vegas.) Health is not the only concern. Some 58% of respondents cited unease about the economy, an understandable concern. Why gamble money you don’t know you’ll have?

* It’s official: Six to a craps table, four to roulette and poker, and three to blackjack, as the Nevada Gaming Commission handed down its reopening rules. It’s not at all entirely bad news. Small meetings (249 people or fewer) are permissible under the new regimen. No nightclubs or day clubs, however, even with reduced capacity. “These are unprecedented times that require unprecedented measures,” NGC Chairwoman Sandra Morgan told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “We are confident that these policies are sound, not only for our licensees but for our employees and guests.” Casinos have to have their paperwork in seven days before reopening, so better start filing it now.

* Making one-off compacts with Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) comes with a price: Both the Comanche Nation of Oklahoma and the Otoe-Missouria Tribe have been suspended from the Oklahoma Indian Gaming Association. Chairman Matthew L. Morgan rationalized that OIGA “works best when its membership can speak frankly and with the trust that all members are working together to support our industry as a whole.” For his part, Stitt has vowed to wallop tribes near major thoroughfares with much higher exclusivity fees than those he negotiated with the Comanche and Otoe-Missouria bands.

Jottings: If Poker News Daily wants reliable projections on when MGM Resorts International Strip resorts will reopen, perhaps it should ignore Facebook postings by “Kurt Coleman” and read Joseph Greff‘s earnings reports instead … On his 1Q20 earnings call, Penn National Gaming CEO Jay Snowden announced “tragically, we have lost three of our own valued team members to the coronavirus.” Penn also lost $608.5 million but shares jumped 15.4% perhaps boosted by the company’s strong online performance, perhaps because Penn’s overall performance was better than expected … Following the Golden Gate‘s lead, South Point has set up drive-through registration for sports-wagering accounts. With the UFC, NASCAR and PGA coming back, bettors have a more appealing menu of wagers to tempt them … The Preakness is safe, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) having approved a bill that will see the issuance of $375 million in bonds for renovations of Pimlico Race Course. The monies will be repaid out of lottery proceeds and casino taxes.

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