Las Vegas: The first shall be last

Don’t stay up late waiting for business in Las Vegas to return to “normal” levels. Sin City is uniquely vulnerable to downturns in the U.S. economy (think of the Great Recession) and a trailing indicator of gambling’s health. The prime beneficiaries of the reopening of the U.S. casino economy are going to be regional casinos, closely followed by tribal ones, then Atlantic City and finally Las Vegas. At least Atlantic City has an ocean to recommend it. Regional and tribal resorts are in an unexpectedly favorable position. With no live entertainment, much fine dining out of commission and not much to offer but gambling, Las Vegas has no compelling advantage over staying close to home. Good for the industry, which spurred regional diversification in the early 2000s. Not so good for Las Vegas, which relies on offering things you can’t find anywhere else. Not these days.

Nor is it just a matter of tourism. The recent collapse of Global Gaming Expo highlighted how vulnerable the Las Vegas Strip is to the vicissitudes of the convention business. If trade shows and expos don’t firm up in 3Q20 and 4Q20, the year will be a massive write-off, reliant upon weekend business to prop it up. Perhaps the best news Las Vegas can hope for is that the Moderna vaccine for Coronavirus continues to show promise (it has improved life for 45 test subjects to date) because, barring a watershed event in public health, Las Vegas is going to be something of a pariah. Then again, if Jacksonville becomes too fetid to host the Republican national convention, there are plenty of empty exhibit halls going begging in Sin City …