Massachusetts hit hard; NFL playoffs a tossup

Between Covid-19 capacity restrictions (33%) and statewide curfews (9:30 p.m., when the night owls are just getting rolling), Massachusetts casinos were between a rock and a hard place last month, with revenues falling 40% to a meager $50 million. If there was a silver lining for anybody, it was at Plainridge Park, whose slots collected an above-average win/slot/day of $247 and whose market share was 18%, closing the gap with MGM Springfield‘s 23%. Encore Boston Harbor remained dominant with 59%. Encore revenue plummeted 46% to $29 million, MGM made $11.5 million (-40%) and Plainridge Park won $9.5 million, only 10% off the pace on 10% less coin-in. (They must have some pretty loyal customers.) MGM saw 33% less slot handle (an anemic $118/win/slot/day) and a disastrous 60% plunge in table game revenue. Where JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff had predicted a 15% decline in the fourth quarter, MGM delivered -34%.

At Encore, it was the opposite story. Greff expected a 50% 4Q20 decline and Encore managed -34%, a victory of sorts we suppose. Slot handle fell 29% and so did revenue from the one-armed bandits. Table game win was $2,972/table/day (contrast that to MGM’s $543). But even tightening the hold on the slots didn’t help that department. Plainridge Park is obviously doing things right, Encore somewhat the same but a serious rethink of MGM’s gaming product appears in order. Connecticut tribes who feared competition from Springfield can sleep easily at night.

Patrick Mahomes‘ concussion threw a big question mark into next week’s AFC conference finals, complicating the job of oddsmakers. It’s no cinch that Mahomes will play (my sister got concussed once and it’s not something you just shake off), so odds have been swinging from 1.5 in favor of the pass-happy Buffalo Bills and 2.5 for the home-field Kansas City Chiefs. “It’s rare that the status of a team lynchpin like Patrick Mahomes is so uncertain ahead of a conference championship game, so the consensus point spread will likely keep shifting as bettors make speculative plays,” said Brett Collson, analyst for TheLines.com.

The most impressive of the playoff teams, the Green Bay Packers, are looking at 3.5-point edge over the GOAT and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, odds that are not hurt by the fact that the Pack will have “frigid” Lambeau Field conditions at its back. “I think the NFC championship could be the highest volume non-Super Bowl game ever,” forecast Westgate Las Vegas sports book director John Murray. “It’s [Tom] Brady versus Rodgers at Lambeau Field. You couldn’t ask for a bigger game. It will be a massive handle through the roof.” If the Chiefs can indeed eke out a win over the Bills, then they will have a well-rested (in theory) Mahomes for Super Bowl LV, in which they would be +200 favorites, with the Packers close behind at +220. The Bills are at +325 and the Bucs are the closest thing to a long shot at +450.

BetMGM, it appears, will take a pass on acquiring partner Entain. The latter, having rejected MGM’s all-stock offer, is not expected to receive a firm or revised bid. Wrote JP Morgan’s Greff, “While we are genuinely surprised MGM didn’t up its consideration (particularly since it had the support of potentially equity buying shareholder IAC to offer a cash component alternative to its prior all stock deal), we don’t think this changes MGM’s ability to secure equity value enhancing benefits from the attractively growing US sports betting and iGaming pie.” (In case you missed, IAC’s Barry Diller was willing to pony up an additional $1 billion.) Given the dilution of MGM Resorts International‘s equity by increasing the stock offer to 50% of the combined companies, MGM shareholders were expected to reject it like a Drew Brees passing attempt. Then again, if nobody else comes calling, Entain may—it is thought on Wall Street—experience some seller’s remorse and come back to MGM cap in hand.

The American Gaming Association is extending its Have a Game Plan responsible-gambling initiative to include the PGA. The message is “Know When to Lay Up” and bet responsibly. The content will be disseminated over a variety of platforms, including PGA Tour Radio. The golf institution joins NASCAR and the NHL as AGA partners. Two of the messages are 1) know the odds and 2) set a budget. (Offshore books are also frowned upon.) “As legal sports betting continues to expand in both availability and popularity, it is imperative that responsible gaming education keeps pace. Today’s announcement is a testament to the [PGA’s] thoughtful approach to sports betting and marks an important step in continuing to engage all industry stakeholders in our shared responsibility to educate fans on safely and responsibly betting on sports,” said Casey Clark of the AGA.

Speaking of gambling responsibly, there’s a thought-provoking piece in Global Gaming Business today, questioning whether cashless gaming could lead to more disordered play. Since cash-handling is the second-most germ-friendly profession, according to the University of Arizona, the allure of the cashless casinos is obvious. Even garbage collection is safer. “Our concern is that a lot of states and companies are rushing to expand cashless payments without really studying or even thinking about the potential downside,” warns Keith Whyte of the National Council on Problem Gambling. Counters Alan Feldman, a distinguished fellow in UNLV‘s Responsible Gaming program, “there are very few facts or evidence that anyone can point to, so nothing can be proven out. At the Gaming Institute, it’s incumbent upon us to do something rather than wait for a jurisdiction to come to us and says, ‘Help us understand it.’” Still, some companies are pushing the envelope. We recently profiled one for Casino Life whose software allows users to write checks they can’t cover, in return for a promise that the money will be in the bank in 28 days, max. That’s worrisome.

As Whyte tells GGB, “The menus and features that makes cashless gambling exciting for consumers and lucrative for the industry are the very same features that can push gamblers into problems: removing barriers, easing the speed and size of transactions.” He’s not a fan of AGA President Bill Miller‘s push for making digital payment a high priority. “When they remove the daily limit on debit transactions as well as the limit on number of transactions a day, you can swipe your card theoretically every five seconds. We’re now seeing innovations in what they call cashless markers, like applying for a credit. It’s given to you on cell phone. It’s like writing a bad check. ” We’d be tempted to call Whyte an alarmist if we didn’t know better ourselves.

Siegfried Fischbacher‘s death is now attributed to complications from surgery on pancreatic cancer. The obituary has an interesting take on how Fischbacher and Roy Horn democratized the Las Vegas showroom experience. For that we owe them a debt of thanks.