Penn survives bad quarter; Summer gaming recover possible

Penn National Gaming reported 4Q20 earnings today and they were down 23% from last year. Many reasons were cited, including lower consumer spending, casino closures in Illinois, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and new restrictions in Ohio and Maine. Oh yes, and Covid-19. Fortunately for Penn, it had done a sufficiently good job of lowering expectations that Wall Street wasn’t fazed by the numbers. After the New Year ‘skinny stimulus,’ Penn is describing January business as “thus far encouraging,” with more foot traffic and longer stays. Sports betting is also providing a critical boost. JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff wrote that Penn “is continuing to see encouraging growth in the younger demographic tiers of its database, and expects the roll-out of vaccinations will encourage more guests in all age segments of its database to return to land-based facilities soon.”

The company is hardly on the ropes, having $1.9 billion cash on hand plus a $670 million line of credit. It also continues to retire debt, a good sign. Barstool Sports has had over 72,000 sign-ups and has generated $300 million in handle. Its Michigan rollout was even bigger than the Pennsylvania one, engendering $3 million in revenue. Half of the handle was placed on bets exclusive to Barstool. It’s a rising tide that’s lifting all boats: Penn says the gaming positions near its sports books are seeing higher traffic. Specifically, at Ameristar East Chicago table game and slot volumes were up 26.5% near its Barstool book. The news is nothing but good, with Penn expecting to be live in 10 states by year’s end and with Barstool’s social-media following having grown 20% (to 105,000) from when Penn took its 36% Barstool stake, making CEO Jay Snowden look like an absolute genius.

Barstool fell into Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli‘s “other” net revenue category, which shot up 175%. The South was least affected last quarter, down 7%, while the Northeast slipped 24%. The “West” region, which includes the unloved Tropicana Las Vegas, was dreadful, plunging 50%, while the Midwest fell 32.5%, for an overall net revenue of $1 billion, only $79.5 million of which came from Nevada. Under any other circumstances such a quarter would be regarded as a calamity but Penn has clearly done a good job of talking Wall Street off the ledge.

Planning a Las Vegas vacation? That’s what the Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority would like you to do, cutting a spate of new spots. But is it healthy? First the good news. The U.S. is showing a remarkable, 44% decline in Coronavirus cases—admittedly off of stratospheric November and December numbers. Theories abound, including an increase in the number of antibodies and sheltering in place (the silver lining to canceled conventions). 8% of Americans have been vaccinated (including Mom), putting the Biden administration on pace to achieve its goal of 100 million dosages in 100 days. But we need 65% to get to “herd immunity,” we’re told. Even with so much reason to cheer, World Health Organization General Director Tedros Adhanom cautions “Over the past year, there have been moments in almost all countries when cases declined, and governments opened up too quickly, and individuals let down their guard, only for the virus to come roaring back.” [cough*Sweden*cough]

Even in a best-case scenario, a post-Memorial Day recovery for destinations like Las Vegas and Atlantic City looks just shy of optimistic. Just vaccinating the most vulnerable will take “well into spring,” predict some. With 52 Americans over age 65 (a key casino demographic), the guvmint is going to have its work cut out just getting them vaccinated. Then you have the 45% of the adult population (like me) who have Covid-19 comorbidities. The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are apparently doing the job but the much-touted Johnson & Johnson one-shot vaccine has only 66% efficacy. We don’t like them odds. There are other complications. The National Review‘s Jim Geraghty reports, “One of my readers in New Jersey is trying to get appointments for two elderly aunts. He describes the process of trying to get them registered in the state’s Kafkaesque system. The locations for vaccination are few and far between, the website is glitchy when it works at all, and the rare open appointments are filled before he can finish filling out the online form.” And if you’re not tech-savvy you’re pretty well screwed.

As for sampling Vegas’ fine dining during the pandemic, Eater‘s Elazar Sontag warns that “the growing government laxity around restaurant dining is not a sign that either practice is necessarily safe, nor that decreasing positivity rates will continue without ongoing vigilance,” adding that the current state of affairs “may make this moment more dangerous than the early stages of the coronavirus outbreak, for workers and diners alike.” He warns of a second wave of Coronavirus mutations in March. “A stew of virus” is what Stanford Health Care‘s Dr. Ann Liu calls parts of the country. “So now,” resumes Salazar, “it’s up to diners to differentiate between decisions made with public health in mind, and those fueled by economic or political pressures.” That’s especially true of eating out, which requires being maskless most of the time.

The casino industry has done a superb job in its anti-Coronavirus measures, unlike certain state and federal governments, but visiting a high-density gaming destination (complete with fine dining) seems an inherently risky proposition at this tipping point in the war against Covid-19. While this author is looking forward to his Global Gaming Expo trip in October, we’re not in a hurry to get back to Sin City. It will still be there in six-10 months. “We have every reason to believe that in a few months, things are going to be a lot better,” says Dr. David Dowdy of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “If people are able to hold out for another two, three months, things are going to warm up. It’s going to be easier to eat outside. We’re going to have the vaccine.” Amen to that.

Jottings: January sports-betting handle in Michigan was $27.5 million. It would have been bigger had the Detroit Lions not ended their season one week prior to launch … Who are the (many) stiffs and (few) georges of Washington, D.C.? One waitress tells all. Let’s just tease it by saying you don’t want to have to dance attendance on senile Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) … Trying to handicap the Oscars? It’s anybody’s guess, except that Nomadland seems to be the early Best Picture fave. The Golden Globes were no help, going gaga over Hamilton (a stage performance recorded on film) and completely blanking Spike Lee after the National Board of Review went all-in for his Vietnam War picture Da Five Bloods. Nice way to kick off Black History Month, Globes.