Back on Dec. 21, we reported on nascent Oscar odds. What a difference 10 days makes. Babylon, “an early favorite to take home hardware at the 95th Academy Awards” according to one betting site, is spiraling from contention, thanks to its total implosion at the box office. Award-mooching Empire of Light also collapsed, meaning that both its star (adorable Academy fave Olivia Colman) and Babylon termagant Margot Robbie can kiss their Best Actress chances goodbye. Honors momentum continues to fill the sails of Everything Everywhere All At Once, Irish dramaThe Banshees of Inisherin and—I dread to say it—the pompous Women Talking. The first and third should receive last-minute Oscar tailwinds from the March 4 Independent Spirit Awards, and Banshees will likely get a Golden Globes lift on January 10.
The box office failures of several Oscar wannabes, like Steven Spielberg‘s charming The Fabelmans, ($40 million cost, $11.5 million return) are also sure to raise the award prospects of such event pictures as Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick, all of which had the commercial virtue of living up to expectations and then some. It’s been a long time since the Academy swooned over a large-scale movie but this might the year it A) forgives James Cameron for being an insufferable egomaniac; B) acknowledges the existence of Baz Luhrmann or C) decides to give Tom Cruise some overdue love, even for a mediocre action movie that did manage to save Paramount Pictures‘ bacon, at the cost of a $100 million paychek. Paramount is going to need all that Top Gun money to cover its $110 million Babylon fiasco.
DraftKings just weighed into the 2023 Oscar odds and was indicative of these shifting fortunes. Erstwhile frontrunner The Fabelmans (+150) is now running dead even with Everything … (+150). Only Banshees (+500) and Avatar (+700) are even close. Maverick is at +1,200 (as is Women Talking) if you feel like playing a long shot. Cate Blanchett (Tar) is still the pick for Best Actress (-125) but Michelle Yeoh continues to come from behind (+250). With Colman (+1,200) and Robbie (+1,100) on the outside looking in, new contenders are Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans, +700), Danielle Deadwyler (Till, +900) and Aña de Armas (Blonde, +1,000), although Deadwyler may be hurt by the fact that Till went largely unseen. The Woman King spawned controversy but the Academy loves Viola Davis (+1,100), so don’t count her out either.
Best Actor remains The Whale‘s Brendan Fraser‘s to lose (-185), but Colin Farrell is coming on strong (+225), blowing past Elvis‘ Austin Butler (+400), leaving Hugh Jackman (The Son, +1,400) and Christian Bale (Amsterdam, +2,000) even further back. Look for dark horse Bill Nighy (Living, +2,200) to move into serious contention soon. As for Best Director, Spielberg is still seen as a lock (-250) but DraftKings has Cameron a distant second at +550, with our favorite-to-upset, The Daniels, at +700, Sarah Polley (Women Talking) at +800—and some sites have her even closer—and Babylon‘s Damien Chazelle at +900 but we don’t think that will hold up. The Academy punishes box office disasters and Babylon is likelier to be the butt of scripted Oscar-night jokes than the recipient of nominations, as befits a film that’s on track to lose its entire production cost. Both Luhrmann and Banshees auteur Martin McDonagh are hanging out at +1,400, positioned to crack the top five.
Finally, Netflix, the N-word in Hollywood, should finally get out from behind the eight ball this year with Best Animated Feature. Nobody’s taking odds on it yet but the beloved Guillermo del Toro has a stop-motion Pinocchio in contention and it looks like a prohibitive favorite, if the Golden Globe nominations are any indicator. We think any del Toro picture (yes, even Nightmare Alley) is worth seeing and this year should be no exception.
