No, that’s not the sound of the Las Vegas Review-Journal‘s Jennifer Robison going weak in the knees at the sight of CityCenter again. It’s J.P.Morgan‘s analysts getting turned on by early numbers from Marina Bay Sands. So excited were they that they put out a “buy” recommendation on LVS, calling its Singapore strength “underestimated.”
JPM’s research indicates Marina Bay is doing $3.6 million per day, even without e-roulette or 75% of its hotel rooms, let alone a “meaningful” marketing effort. That daily figure, were it to remain consistent would extrapolate to $1.3 billion in annual revenue — pretty impressive, if well short of Las Vegas Sands‘ fantastical $1 billion/year profit prediction. While much of Wall Street expects CEO Sheldon Adelson to wring $700 million in annual cash flow from Marina Bay by 2012, according to JPM staff, the latter are raising the prospect of $1 billion in Singapore-derived EBITDA. Since that number doesn’t include taxes (12% to Singapore alone) or debt service, Adelson’s going to have to do much better than $3.6 million/day (nothing to sneeze at, mind you) to make his profit prediction come true.
Across the bay, “pretty healthy initial results, and much better than anything experienced in U.S. markets” is what’s taking place at Resorts World Sentosa, which was on pace for a billion dollars in annual cash flow — at least until Sands crashed the party. That dilution caused Resorts World parent Genting Bhd to take a cautious outlook despite a profitable first quarter. (Genting is beneficiary of many a “buy” recommendation, too.) The company is looking to sell non-core assets but it also talking up U.S. casino investments. These would include a tribal casino now mooted for Fall River, Mass. However, that project is contingent on a number of ifs and maybes, both at the state and federal level.
Whatever the future holds, robust gambling in Singapore appears to have lit a match under the government of Macao. It’s launched a marketing offensive against India, long presumed to be a critical market for the success of the Singapore resorts. Adelson and his Macanese comrades say they’re not worried about a Singapore vs. Macao scenario, and Indian tourism to the former Portugese colony has been ramping up rapidly. Still, it can’t hurt to shore up that flank all the same, especially when Sands has just persuaded Playboy Clubs to switch its loyalty from Melco‘s Studio City Macau to Adelson’s fold.
