Casinos in the Catskills have been touted as an economic panacea for nigh unto a decade. We all know the ensuing score: much hype, little accomplishment. Still, that has not prevented one New York gubernatorial candidate from dusting this idea off today and making it the newest plank in her platform. “Manhattan Madam” Kristin Davis is projecting $1 billion/year/casino (based on win/gaming position of $250/day) if her proposal is enacted. To pencil out, that would require insane amounts of slot play — as much as $900/day — and Davis’ projected tax haul of $750 million a year implies a revenue projection of $562.5 million/year/casino, which is still one helluva stretch, even if the casinos were to draw 25%-33% of their play from out of state, as predicted. Davis’ pitch would allow for at least 3,000 slots and 62 tables per casino and the tax rate (30%-35%) would be comparable to Pennsylvania‘s 34% blended rate, while remaining much higher than New Jersey‘s 8%.
Given Davis’ notoriety and the obvious long-shot nature of her campaign, today’s announcement from the “Manhattan Madam” is more entertaining — in a wonky sort of way — than newsworthy. However, given the way that the governor’s office has been prostituted by incumbent David Paterson (D) in l’affaire Aqueduct, there’s something to be said for a candidate who came by the Oldest Profession honestly … and no, I’m not referring to Ms. Davis’ background in hedge funds. However, when it comes to assuming that casinos are some kind of cure-all elixir for the Empire State’s tax base, she’s just another politician full of blue-sky assumptions that appear tenuously connected to reality.
