It almost goes without saying right now that any earnings report is going to come in slightly below Wall Street’s consensus. That’s just the way the dice are bouncing these days. Such is the case with MGM Mirage, where Strip revenues are down 6% year/year, but JP Morgan finds some pleasant surprises in the Beau Rivage and MGM Grand Detroit numbers.
The Strip results also bear out what Majestic Research has been diligently reporting all along — a separation between MGM’s highest-tier properties, Bellagio and Mandalay Bay, which continue to ascend to the top (+14.4% at M’Bay) while the others lag, “especially the lower end.” MGM’s buyout of Mandalay Resort Group looked better on paper than the Harrah’s Entertainment/Caesars Entertainment one because MGM’s risk was spread between all price categories, including the bargain niche. Who could have foreseen this turn of events?
But there are glimmers of light at the end of the tunnel, particularly with regard to convention bookings. Also, CityCenter looks to be $1.65 billion closer to closing that $3 billion gap in its financing.
Ameristar cutting comps. It’s hardly “death spiral marketing,” but Ameristar Casinos‘ response to a below-expectations earnings report is to start whacking away at comps, “as they now believe incremental revenue growth via promotional expenses is no longer prudent.” Expect to start feeling it this summer and even more so in Oct.-Dec., eventually returning to ’07 levels. A big springtime promotional push (+30%) didn’t produce significantly improved results, hence the rollback.
Still, with Harrah’s rolling out a gargantuan new, $550 million riverboat in the Hammond, Ind., market this hardly seems the time for Ameristar to be playing possum, raising again the question of whether the fellows at the top are in it for the long haul. Also, Ameristar is holding the line (in terms of revenue, less so in cash flow) pretty well in all its markets except Black Hawk, Colo. (-10%), so why the apparent defeatism? The company was sufficiently aggressive to make capital improvements to several of its flagship properties. Ergo, the sudden volte-face comes as a surprise.
Management also says that $20 million in payroll, in the form of 394 jobs, has walked the plank. The brunt of the cuts fell upon Ameristar’s East Chicago boat, yet another move that seems to wave the white flag. Heck, if you went by the Ameristar Web site, you’d be forgiven for thinking that property doesn’t even exist.
A hotel tower in Black Hawk has also been moved to the back burner, but the Colorado market’s future is so clouded that Ameristar’s decision is prudence, pure and simple. While revenue and profit expectations have been revised downwards, increases of 3% and 11% respectively are expected next year.
JP Morgan analysts are also bullish on the stock because, as they note, Penn National has “dry powder” in the form of as much as $1.475 billion in breakup fees from its aborted LBO. The expectation that Penn has Ameristar in its sights “will likely drive ASCA higher as investors speculate on a potential transaction.”
Speaking of Penn …
Less room at the top. With former Harrah’s COO Tim Wilmott aboard as president/COO of Penn, that left Leonard De Angelo, the company’s executive VP of ops, on the outside looking in. Wilmott was quite a catch for Penn after he left Harrah’s as part of an executive exodus. But it seems that, in order to give Wilmott a portfolio commensurate with his stature, De Angelo was rendered rendundant. Been there, done that. Mr. De Angelo, you have my sincere sympathies.
