So much for the conventional wisdom that Phil Ruffin was just hanging onto Treasure Island for a few years to help MGM Resorts International through a rough patch. Seems he’s subsequently made offers for The Mirage (whose infrastructure is symbiotic with Treasure Island’s) and Beau Rivage. The latter is a valuable hedge against MGM’s overexposure on the Las Vegas Strip and even if The Mirage goes onto the market, Ruffin’s not going to bite unless MGM CEO Jim Murren comes down off those blue-sky valuations (like 12X cash flow) he’s been tossing around.
Penn National Gaming, however, which bragged about not bidding on the pirate place and implied that Ruffin overpaid for it, must be laughing out of the other side of its face now. Even if additional MGM or Caesars Entertainment assets on the Strip became available, their prices will never be low enough for CEO Peter Carlino and they’re likely to start inching upward again. Soon. Carlino will be remembered as the CEO who offered too little and waited too long to try and get onto the Strip, and whose moment has probably passed. (Of course, there’s always the Westin Casuarina.) As for that abortive Fontainebleau caper, I can only try to channel Frank Caliendo‘s interpretation of Dr. Phil and ask Carlino, “What! Were! You! Think.Ing?”
Speaking of which … what is Steve Wynn thinking with this deal? (The question is not rhetorical.) A business venture that has one foot in the notorious tax haven that is Monaco and another in the notorious terrorist haven that is Qatar probably needs all the good advice it can get, so hopefully Uncle Steve can steer his new proteges clear of trouble.
Those who freak out about so-called “reservation shopping” might do well to take note. While it’s always good for a laugh to refer to certain Wisconsin casinos as “Blow-Chunk,” the reality is that the Ho-Chunk Tribe is propping up a goodly swath of the state’s economy. Ho-Chunk representatives like Anne Thundercloud are tactfully refraining from gloating over the fact that the white man is now reliant upon Native American largesse … though few could blame them if they took a victory lap.
Happy anniversary to one-year-old Boot Hill Casino, which took in $36 million in its initial 12 months of operation. Of all the Kansas casinos, this once seemed like the longest of long shots but instead it’s celebrating a birthday while one other casino (Penn’s) is still under construction, another (Peninsula Gaming‘s) awaits final approval and one license continues to go begging. Congratulations to Boot Hill. May the second year be as auspicious as the first.

I enjoy your blog and try to read it everyday. One comment on this story however. Qatar is not in any way a “terrorist haven” as you so casually put it. As I said I enjoy all of your writing about Las Vegas, however, your knowledge in this instance of Qatar is lacking. It’s very irresponsible journalistically to make such a casual (and untrue) slander against another country. And in this particular case, I think we get enough misinformation and propaganda about middle eastern countries – I would hope that you would not contribute to it.
Please keep writing about all things Las Vegas, I look forward to reading your blog regularly.
RE: Qatar, just from this past month. Decide for yourselves.
Dec. 29
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/ipad-application/qatar-soccer-terror-threat/story-fn6bfm6w-1225975197722
Dec. 8
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/09/opinion/09thu1.html?_r=1
Dec. 6
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2010/s3086132.htm
Plus a couple of items from recent years:
http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/joe_conason/2007/11/30/giuliani_qatar
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article387163.ece
Penn National Gaming got the deal they wanted when they paid around $230 million dollars for M Resort, which is a very nice property but it is 10 miles south of The Strip. Penn probably also made a low offer on the Rio (I would assume no more than $300 million dollars). By the way, have you heard of any other casino company trying to buy the Rio? Caesars Entertainment needs the money so you would figure they would try and sell the Rio to someone.
Somehow I don’t think it’s better than an even bet that Strip real estate prices have bottomed out. Las Vegas is very sensitive to higher oil prices and huge stalled projects like Fontainbleau are a real drag.
Just learning, if 12X cash flow is too much to pay for a well located casino hotel, what is a more reasonable price?
Tom, 7X cash flow is the usual benchmark for a casino price, more if it’s on the Strip. However, 12X EBITDA for a 21-year-old property (even a Steve Wynn one) is pushing it, especially in a buyer’s market.
Paul, Penn Nat’l is an odd cat, constantly reversing field. Publicly, it’s still hankering for a Strip property, although Peter Carlino practically spat on the Trop and Riviera (which he may come to regret). More recently, CFO William Clifford was spinning some revisionist B.S. that F’bleau wasn’t such a bad deal since CityCenter hadn’t diluted occupancy and room rates as much as feared (the old “It coulda been worse” defense).
IIRC, $300 million is the bare minimum for which Caesars could sell The Rio, due to loan covenants — but there are still financial penalties for taking such a lowball offer. Since Carlino can never find a Strip property cheap *and* nice enough to suit his criteria, Penn is on pace to miss its opportunity altogether.