At the winner is … Isle of Capri; Big shakedown in Ohio

That ongoing Isle of Capri Casinos Comeback Tour comes to Nemacolin Woodlands Resort, which won Pennsylvania‘s final “resort casino” license earlier today. Situated in the greater Pittsburgh area, the rural getaway is owned by lumber tycoon (and “george” political donor) Joe Hardy. The vote wasn’t even close, as Hardy and Isle were handily granted the right to 600 slot machines and possibly 50 table games, too. Fernwood Resort up in the casino-saturated Poconos, and backed by Penn National Gaming, got one vote. Limited liquidity at Isle, while an issue, wasn’t an insuperable obstacle for Nemacolin’s bid.

Totally shut out were laughinstock applicant (see bottom of story) RV World in Mechanicsburg and the controversy-plagued Mason-Dixon Resort & Casino, outside Gettysburg. The latter’s location made a lot of sense from the standpoint of its proximity to Maryland, where the casino industry has had great difficulty getting its act together — partly due to unceasing machinations by Penn National — leaving a wide-open market for south Pennsylvania to tap.

Wells Fargo gaming analyst Carlo Santarelli has run the numbers on Lady Luck Nemacolin and likes what he sees. It’s a hella good deal for Isle, which pays a fee to Hardy, plus a percentage of any casino revenue above $30 million. Isle’s $50 million construction cost also buys the company 10 years at the helm in Nemacolin and 100% of the cash flow, with the exceptions noted above. By Santarelli’s estimate, Isle is looking at a 21% ROI. Execs at Isle are celebrating today (and Tweeting about it) — as well they ought. Congratulations!

Change partners and litigate. Across the state, the jinxed Foxwoods Philadelphia project has a new, mystery partner and is back in court. The argument before the Commonwealth Court is that losing a casino license is “an excessively draconian sanction” for not being able to get one’s ass in gear, despite having had five years to do so. The Ed Snider-led cast of changing characters would like another 17 months to try and get the job done. They’re counting on the peremptory speed with which their concession was pulled to work in their favor. Or, as their attorney says, the Snider group “understood, shared, and still shares the board’s apparent frustration that its casino project could not be completed quickly, as both the board and [Foxwoods Philly] had hoped and envisioned. But frustrated expectations do not justify erroneous, arbitrary, and capricious decisions.”

Speaking of Penn National, frustrations in Maryland mean good news for its Charles Town racino and its Hollywood Casino at Penn National Race Course, in Grantsville, Penn. Both are posting better-than-expected revenues for early 2011, leading J.P. Morgan analysts to raise their share-price targets and cash-flow estimates. Penn’s two newest properties, its Perryville slot parlor, near Baltimore, and freshly acquired M Resort have seriously underperformed (through no fault of Penn’s in the case of the Vegas property), so the numbers coming out of the West Virginia and Pennsylvania racinos must be strong indeed. Morgan, however, attaches an over-optimistic timeline of 2012 for the opening of Penn’s Ohio casinos.

The company’s wrangles with local officials have cast some doubt about that and now Buckeye State Gov. John Kasich (R, left) could thwart a 2012 opening outright, spending time — and mucho diñero on consultants, and making financial demands that probably push casino completion well into 2013. We might even be talking 2014, depending on how long the $400/hour consultants take to chew their cud … and if the state’s financial insatiability forces Penn and Caesars Entertainment to downgrade and redesign would-be destination properties to grind joints just to break even. It’s quite something to listen to Kasich’s irate, ill-founded and undignified whining (click on audio link) on this subject. As tantrums go, it’s a doozy. All that’s missing is the flinging of the gubernatorial baby rattle through the bars of a crib.

At least Kasich’s backed off from job-killing demands that would have required a 2012 re-vote of the terms and tax rate under which casinos operate in his fair kingdom. He’s merely using “a little leverage,” he says, to extort wrest “help” additional revenues, in the form of extra fees plus a liberal interpretation of the Commercial Activity Tax (i.e., taxing all wagers as revenue), as well throwing the prospect of racinos and Indian gaming onto the table. His message? ‘Nice little duopoly you got there. Hate to see something bad happen to it.”

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