Indiana: It sure could be worse

… because you could be Illinois, where June gambling revenues went into the toilet (-21%). Which isn’t to say that Indiana‘s numbers look good only by comparison. In fact, the Hoosier State may be benefiting from the Land of Lincoln’s misery. It’s sort of a “Yes, but …” situation.

Yes, Indiana would be a lot worse off (-12%) without two new racinos, Hoosier Park and Indiana Live. Their addition has kept gambling revenues virtually flat from June ’07. And that’s two flat months (as in variance of less than 1%) after eight months of declines. In terms of gross, Hoosier Park vaulted into the #5 spot, while Indiana Live checked in at #9.

Yes, northern Indiana initially looks like it got clobbered (-11.5%). But once you back out Boyd Gaming‘s Blue Chip riverboat — which is something of a special case — the picture improves considerably. All northern riverboats except Resort International‘s are down, but not on average as much as the southern Indiana riverboats.

All of which suggests that gamblers fleeing Illinois’ new smoking ban are taking refuge aboard the northwest Indiana boats. Blue Chip, which is the closest one to the tribal Four Winds Casino Resort, across the Michigan state line, is really taking it on the chin: -39.7% in June. Boyd’s struggles here — and with its Florida parimutuel (which isn’t even shown on the company’s official Web site) — make it tempting to call for retrenchment. But, in the case of Blue Chip, it’s on pace for $190 million in revenue, which is scarcely chump change … good enough for the #6 spot in statewide gross.

Dollarwise, Harrah’s Entertainment‘s Horseshoe Hammond now enjoys the top spot, once the exclusive preserve of Penn National‘s Argosy Lawrenceburg. The latter, however, still has bragging rights to the largest slice of market share (just under 12%, according to the Indiana Gaming Commission) in the state.

Amongst the southern Indiana casinos, only Pinnacle Entertainment‘s Belterra enjoyed [sic] a single-digit decline in June, while almost everyone else suffered double-digit slumps.

The lone gainer was — surprise! — Columbia Sussex‘s Casino Aztar, up 2.5%. A recent, regulator-placating, promotion-friendly change of administration at Casino Aztar may be the X factor here, as the riverboat followed January-April declines with two months of gains … the only casino in the state to post that pattern. (Resorts Int’l must really be onto something, what with five straight months of growth in the teeth of an adverse economy.)

Casino Aztar‘s gain appears to have been French Lick Casino‘s loss. The lowest-grossing casino in the state, its novelty factor may have worn off, as it’s down by almost 25% in June. Then again, French Lick’s numbers have been all over the place this year, so who knows? However, it was perceived as the primary competitive threat to Casino Aztar, a challenge that may now have been blunted. We’ll see.

And can anybody tell me why two adjacent casino boats, owned by the same company (Don Barden‘s Majestic Star and Majestic Star II) can have such disparate results? One is off by 4% while the other is down 13%. Then again, who can explain anything Barden-related these days?

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