Belated Christmas presents, Midwest edition

To quote Stephen Sondheim, everything’s coming up roses … or close enough, anyway. Last Friday, strong numbers out of Iowa — of a non-caucus ilk — showed the state’s casinos rebounding to the tune of 16% (on a $121 million) gross, fueled by double-digit increases in play. Even after backing out newbie Grand Falls Casino, that’s still good for a same-store comparison of +11.5%. Isle of Capri Casinos had particular reason to smile, its fleet garnering an aggregate increase of 16%. The smaller the vessel, the more spectacular the gains, but let’s not rain too hard on the parade of the two Diamond Jo boats (+31%) or little outfits like Wild Rose Emmetsburg (+17%). December tends to be good for business at Caesars Entertainment‘s Horseshoe-branded racino and thus was the case last month, with a 16% surge.

Faring much less well was Harrah’s Council Bluffs, -5% for the month, -13% for the year and -11% for the 2010, displaying negative comparisons in 23 of the last 24 months. At least Gary Loveman can take solace in the fact that such declines have narrowed in the last two months, implying that local management is finally getting a handle on the situation. But if Harrah’s remained submerged, Isle’s Rhythm City riverboat finally came to periscope depth, posting its first positive month (+11.5%) in the last two years. As for the remaining big boys, Penn National Gaming and Ameristar Casinos, they closed out the year strongly, with above-average gains at Argosy Sioux City and Ameristar Council Bluffs. But it would be a stretch to say that Iowa casinos are doing significantly better than last year, so let’s hope that Gov. Terry Branstad doesn’t think that Santa Claus has gift-wrapped him an excuse to jack up casino taxes, a wish near and dear to his heart.

Directly southward, it might have seemed difficult to improve on December 2010’s 10% increase but Missouri managed to extract another 5% from gamblers last month, for a $137 million gross. Slightly higher foot traffic, an extra weekend day and — at Pinnacle Entertainment‘s River City only — loose slot hold (8.8%) were cited as contributory factors. Cannibalization has eased off in St. Louis, with only Pinnacle’s upscale Lumiere Place having reason for discontent (-2%, on a low-ish gross). Elsewhere, the gains ranged from boffo (24% at River City, #3 in the market but climbing rapidly) to impressive (11% at Harrah’s Maryland Heights) to respectable (2% for Ameristar St. Charles, #1 by a whisker).

In Kansas City, Ameristar (-2%, left) ended the year with an inglorious eight-month skid and, in December, lost market share to Harrah’s (+5%), Argosy Riverside (+2%) and Isle of Capri Kansas City (+5%). Isle had the single most-improved property in the market, in terms of year-long financial performance. Gains of 13% for Lady Luck Caruthersville and 11% at Isle’s Boonsville boat weren’t quite enough to salvage a 2011 that was subpar for the former (-3%) and flat at the latter. At least a December uptick of 2% for indie St. Jo Frontier put a positive finish on an otherwise horrible year (-22%) for that vessel, which booked no revenue in July and August, and scarcely any in September. Of all Show-Me State operators, only Pinnacle did notably better (+12%) in 2011, thanks to having a full year of revenue from River City — a property that’s doing so well you have to wonder again why ex-Pinnacle CEO Dan Lee wanted to triple down with yet another riverboat in the St. Louis market.

Growth in Illinois is, once you account for Neil Bluhm‘s new powerhouse in Des Plaines, illusory. On a same-store basis, the Land of Lincoln was -5% last year and -4% in 2010. It’s a “growth market” only in the fevered imagination of state Rep. Lou Lang (D), the Dr. Pangloss of Illinois. Minus Bluhm’s contribution, December revenue goes from +32% to pancake-flat. Gamblers are visiting less (-4%) and still spending less (-2%), even with clement weather acting as an incentive to get out of the house.

Rivers Casino, with its $33 million, dwarfed all competitors. Excepting Boyd Gaming‘s Par-A-Dice riverboat (7% up), Caesars had the best month, registering gains at both Harrah’s Joliet (7%), rebounding from 13 adverse months, and Harrah’s Metropolis (2%). Also finishing the year positively were Jumer’s Casino Rock Island (18%) and Casino Queen (11%), down in East St. Louis. December was mostly coal and switches for Penn, which saw grosses down at Empress Joliet (-7%) and Hollywood Aurora (-6%), and flat at Alton Belle, where one hopes that the worst is finally past.  Having an even harder time of it was MGM Resorts International‘s Grand Victoria Elgin (-12%, above), pummeled yet again by Bluhm. Six months was all Rivers needed to become Illinois’ third-highest-grossing casino. Grand Victoria managed to be both the top grosser ($266 million) and the biggest loser* (-10.5%) of the year, while Jumer’s (+8%) had the biggest growth story outside of Des Plaines.

(* — Technically, Harrah’s Metropolis had the biggest decline, -15.5%, but it lost most of May to flood waters, which should count as a mitigating circumstance in Caesars’ favor. Incidentally, revenue fluctuations below 1% are counted as “flat” for S&G purposes.)

What’s an extra weekend day worth? That’s the $5 Million Question for Indiana, which eked out a 2% increase in gambling revenue last month, for $218 million. Unlike Illinois punters, Indiana ones visited casinos more (9%) but that didn’t keep them from spending less (-6% per visitor). It wasn’t a great month for the ponies, what with racinos Indiana Live (-9%) and Hoosier Park (-6%) both off their feed. Despite a flat December, Horseshoe Hammond still topped the leader board with $41.5 million. Nearby rival Ameristar East Chicago had one of its best months of the year (up 8%), suggesting it may finally be turning the page on the infamous Cline Avenue Bridge closure. All Hoosier State riverboats did well, save for Horseshoe Southern Indiana (-13%, above) and the second of the Majestic Star vessels (-10%), an ex-Donald Trump boat. Double-digit gains were prevalent statewide, led by French Lick Casino (+18%), with Pinnacle (+11%), Boyd (+10%), Penn (+11.5%) and Tropicana Entertainment (+12%) all bearing tidings of gladness to their shareholders.

Indiana ended 2011 off the previous year’s already unimpressive pace by 3%. Horseshoe Hammond had an 11-month slalom, as players seem to have drifted away … but it’s still the only casino in the state to gross over a half-billion dollars. Penn’s Hollywood Lawrenceburg comes remotely near that high-water mark and, at $436.5 million, “remote” is the operative word. No casino owner enjoyed a breakout year and only Caesars (-9%) had what you’d call a poor one. However, the impending incursion of Ohio casinos and a groundswell of support for racinos in Kentucky are two auguries that must have Hoosier casino operators entering the new year with some trepidation.