Nevada disappoints but Atlantic City bombs

If there’s a saving grace to August’s rather glum Nevada gambling win (-3%), it’s that the month ended on a Friday, so there may be some as-yet-unreported slot revenue that will fluff the September results. (That optimism must be offset, though, by the fact that August 2012 had one more weekend day than the year before.) Lighter slot play depressed Las Vegas Strip results (-1%), which were buoyed mainly by boffo baccarat win (+32%), hold (+12%) and money wagered (+30%). Other table games were down 8.5%, with metrics declining across the board.

Mesquite and Primm, along with other nebulously defined “balance of Clark County” markets could take consolation in being flat during a month in which the locals market got hammered. Symbolic of this plight was Boyd Gaming, down 8% on its home turf. Downtown casinos were 8% off last year’s win, blighted North Las Vegas fell 13% and the Boulder Strip took a -17% thwack. By contrast, Laughlin‘s 2% decline was practically cause for celebration.

Strip revenues ($491 million) were the best of the warm-weather months, except for July’s $597.5 million. Since so many of Las Vegas Boulevard‘s tentpole events (like Chinese New Year and the Super Bowl) are frontloaded into the first quarter, long stretches of the calendar are wont to look deceptively lean. Compared to 2011’s 3% increase, the pace of recovery has slowed this year … although the manic-depressive alternation of good and bad months makes one leery of drawing sweeping conclusions.

Stick a fork in it. OK, sure, I said we should wait 8-12 months before drawing conclusions on Revel. However, its effect has not been to reverse Atlantic City‘s fortunes but to cushion the fall. Without Revel, the Boardwalk would have been 12% off last month. With it, the decline is 6%. Pick your poison. In four months of full operation, Revel has not performed appreciably better than during its two-month “soft opening”: $17 million last month vs. $14 million in May (which was bolstered by Beyoncé and other Memorial Day treats).

Since Revel was underwritten, in part, with tax exemptions from the State of New Jersey, if its numbers don’t improve during the 4Q12 and 1Q13 — i.e.,  the cold-weather months — this could be the “Solyndra” of the casino industry. Having made a $261 million wager with the state budget, Gov. Chris Christie (R, right) will find himself drawing to a much weaker hand, thanks to Revel CEO Kevin DeSanctis and his near-total screwup of Atlantic City’s first megaresort opening in nearly a decade and certainly its last ever. Pressure from legislators to put slots into horse tracks and/or Meadowlands will be much, much more difficult to stave off unless DeSanctis pulls a rabbit from his seemingly empty hat.

For Borgata, it was a glass half-empty/half-full month. Its $55 million gross makes Revel look downright pitiful, but it was still 6% off from last year. Boyd Gaming got cleaned out at the tables — as appears to happened even worse to Tropicana Entertainment — whether in terms of hold, win (-20%) or money wagered (-9%). Tighter slot holds offset some of the damage at the tables. The Caesars Entertainment quartet was down 9% overall. Bally’s Wild Wild West, slated for a refit, suffered the most (-23%) while Caesars Atlantic City got off fairly lightly, down 7.5% on a $33 million gross.

The sole gainer was Golden Nugget Atlantic City (+8%), in its eighth revenue-positive month out of the last nine. Whatever Tilman Fertitta‘s doing, his competitors should be studying it. Slightly outgrossing the Nugget was bargain-driven Atlantic Club, only 2% off last year’s pace. Pulling in a mingy $9 million (-19%), on-the-block Trump Plaza will be a tough sell. But despite a shocking 29% falloff, to $21.5 million, Tropicana Atlantic City still managed to outgross Revel by $4.6 million. What’s wrong with this picture?