A tale of two Nevadas

October was a tale of two Nevadas, one of which (the north) did quite well whilst the other did not. Gaming revenue statewide was down 19.5%, with the Las Vegas Strip acting as a drag anchor, minus 30% at $375 million. Slots were loose, with revenue down 32% on 25% less coin-in. The house played lucky at baccarat, with win up 3.5% but it was a hollow victory, wagering being 42.5% downward. What was gained at baccarat was lost at other table games, which plummeted 38% on 19.5% less wagering. (Good for the players, bad for the house.) Amidst all this bad news, Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) left the door open to a second casino closure, although he was vague about how far his Covid-mitigation measures might go. “Speculating on whether these enhanced restrictions will impact the tourist casinos is challenging to predict,” said casino-law expert Anthony Cabot.

If Sisolak goes the full monty, a two-week closure would probably be insufficient as far as public health goes. Explained Stephen M. Miller, director of UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research, “You probably need more than 14 days to see significant effects, since positive tests, hospitalizations, and deaths follow a dynamic path.” Even if a vaccine debuts next month (a big and complicated “if”), “It is hard to imagine a world in which we don’t see more restrictive operating environments for U.S. retail casinos across the next two quarters,” forecast Eilers & Krejcik Gaming analyst Chris Grove.