Atlantic City’s future: “Bleak”

Such is the prognosis from J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff after the November revenues rolled in from the Boardwalk. Basically, the double-edged sword that was table games in Pennsylvania and a casino in Philadelphia has swung, and lopped 12.5% off Atlantic City‘s already anemic performance (down 27 months in a row). November marks four months of double-digit declines for the seaside gambling destination and the worst so far. Of the last 23 months, only February 2010 was worse and that by the thinnest of margins ($100,000 to be precise).

Whether it was tables or slots, handle, hold or gross revenue, all market indicators pointed in one direction: down. To give you an idea, the good news for Wells Fargo analyst Carlo Santarelli was that Borgata‘s 6% decline was much less bad than expected. Over at Resorts Atlantic City, new CEO Dennis Gomes isn’t exaggerating the severity of the crisis facing his casino: Its $10 million take was the month’s worst (against Borgata’s market-leading $49 million), a 29% plunge from last year. One hastens to add that the November data doesn’t reflect Gomes’ stewardship, as that was Resorts last month under the disaster known as Colony Capital.

S&G has been saying for a while that Caesars Entertainment is badly overexposed in Atlantic City, where its four casinos had a 20% bite taken out of their collective ass. They were still good for $108 million but the declines ranged from 16.5% at sprawling Bally’s Wild Wild West ($30 million) to 26% at Caesars Atlantic City ($25 million). Atlantic City Hilton‘s death spiral continues, down 12%. It’s a tragic pity that the mooted Tilman Fertitta takeover from Colony seems to have been a will o’ the wisp.

Bright spots. Yes, there were a couple. Trump Marina (left) has evidently fallen so far it now has no place to go but up. Its $12 million take, while hardly a barn-burner, represented a 2% increase. Hey, you’ve gotta start somewhere. Even more impressive was the 11% increase notched by Tropicana Atlantic City, where the combination of old management and new ownership (Carl Icahn) is bringing gamblers back. The Trop’s $26 million haul was actually bigger than that of two of the Caesars-owned properties.

One hopes that autumn’s numbers, dire as they are, will instill a sense of urgency in the New Jersey Legislature. That august body is contemplating a slew of bills that comprise a rescue kit for Atlantic City. The package is coming together largely as Gov. Chris Christie (R) envisioned, with a couple of significant exceptions. It may not be perfect but — taken as a whole — it’s what the doctor ordered.

Today was also the deadline for Caesars to submit its proposal for bailing out the stalled Foxwoods casino project in Philadelphia. When you consider the inroads the Pennsylvania had made on Atlantic City, as well as the blow that SugarHouse has dealt Harrah’s Chester Downs, more’s the pity that the Caesars board — stuffed with private-equity execs — is unlikely and insufficiently casino-experienced to prevent CEO Gary Loveman from essentially putting a torch to Chester and Atlantic City alike with his value-destructive pursuit of a Philly foothold. Owners Texas Pacific Group and Apollo Management have placed themselves at the mercy of Loveman’s mercurial business temperament. Gentlemen, enjoy the ride.

Happy birthday to one of the quintessential prime-time vixens, Donna Mills, who turns 70 tomorrow. Geez, it seems just like the day before yesterday that she was the damsel in distress in Clint Eastwood‘s Play Misty for Me (a thriller that wears its years lightly; put it in your Netflix queue … you’ll thank me later) and yesterday that she was the silkily scheming Abby Cunningham on Knots Landing. It’s been nearly 18 years since my ex and I watched the following on May 13, 1993. Gawd, I feel old.

Speaking of middle-age reference points …

Baby Boomer boom. A new study by Preferred Hotel Group charts a sizeable upward curve in the number of Baby Boomers hitting retirement age (at least until Uncle Sam moves the goalposts). Starting next year, an estimated 11,000 Boomers a day will turn 65. Las Vegas has staked its future on DWMs (douchebags with money) and the indefinable “curious class.” If, in the wake of the Great Recession, the Boomers will still have that $3,324 in annual vacation budget, the question becomes: Why aren’t more of them spending it here? In two categories, Nevada in general and Las Vegas in particular rank no better than fifth in popularity … behind Alaska and Honolulu, respectively.

OK, those last two are hard to beat when it comes to scenery. But they’re a long haul and hella expensive. Maybe the Boomers, being older and wiser, aren’t wont to drop thousands of dollars a night in an ultralounge. So if the douchbagerie has an inherent advantage in the eyes of Vegas marketers, it’s that they’re young and stupid. After all, anybody who spends a lousy $3.3K in an afternoon at Rehab would be deemed a piker. On second thought, maybe Sin City ought to just stick to what it’s already doing.