While the voters have not yet spoken (although they’re getting an early start here), the betting markets are feeling less restraint. While the amount wagered online on the results of today’s presidential election — $16 million, according to one source — may seem frivolous, if not excessive, it’s a droplet compared to the obscene amounts spent by the candidates and their PACs, those truth-averse pustules accountable to no one. (Disclaimer: I voted for neither of the two Major Leading Brand candidates.)
If Mitt Romney is president-elect tomorrow, punters who wagered with Betfair will be out $25 million, as 78% of the action has been laid in favor of Barack Obama. The incumbent 
also enjoys favorable odds (a 71.5% chance of victory) at Intrade. However, online bookie Paddy Power could be very red in the face — and in the ledger if Romney bucks the odds and wins. Paddy Power is so confident (overconfident?) in its numbers it has already paid out $650,000 in pro-Obama wagers. Compound that with the $4 payout for every $1 wagered on a Romney victory and Paddy Power could get clocked something fierce. William Hill has been taking five-figure wagers both on the President and his Republican challenger, although the odds again heavily favor the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Hill’s odds are, however, more inclined (5-2) toward a Romney popular-vote victory.
Alas, if any of you were hoping for a Chris Christie candidacy in 2016, William Hill has depressing news: According to its boffins, it’ll be Hillary Clinton against some permutation of the Romney/Paul Ryan duo. Care to wait four years to see if that bet pays off?
$89 Million Question. If dollars spent campaigning were votes cast, Question 7 would be a shoo-in with Maryland voters. MGM Resorts International is putting $45.3 million into the pro-Question 7 push, outspending its enemy, Penn National Gaming by $4 million. (Despite its opposition to the casino-expansion measure, Cordish Gaming has kept its wallet shut.) Even if Penn wins, its victory may be Pyrrhic, as it will be out $41.3 million with no discernible gain to show. Incidentally, this intra-industry tussle has seen more pro- and con- spending than the last four Maryland gubernatorial races combined. Considering the low rate of return on in the Old Line State, one can only look at the sheer volume of money splurged and borrow a phrase from Chris Berman: C’mon, man!
Regardless of Maryland, Penn continues pressing forward on some fronts and trying to hold the line on others. When Iowa regulators decided to retire Argosy Sioux City in favor of a dry-land casino, it looked as though Penn was erased from the picture, having fallen out with partner Missouri River Historical Development. However, it has vigorously elbowed its way back into the discussion. It is proposing two possible Hollywood Casino sites. If the downtown iteration is chosen, the $160 million facility will be done in stages — casino and amenities first, hotel later. The slightly more expensive rural version (pictured) would all be done in one go. Penn’s main rival is the Ho-Chunk tribe, although dark-horse candidate Sioux City Entertainment has franchised the Hard Rock brand, the most recognizable name of any in contention.
Penn CEO Peter Carlino (below) is also taking the keys to Harrah’s Maryland Heights, a property 
that Caesars Entertainment sold for $610 million in quick cash, in a major strategic error, taking it out of the St. Louis market. Naturally, Penn will also put its Hollywood moniker on the casino, which is said to be long overdue for upgrades and will get $61 million of them. Since casino expansion in Illinois is more a matter of “when” than “if,” Carlino ought to start getting his Argosy Casino Alton player base into the Maryland Heights habit and position the low-grossing Alton facility for resale. The political culture in Illinois is so inimical to current operators that they should get out while the getting is good.
