Bullish Boyd; Inside Station’s crystal ball

Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli met with Boyd Gaming‘s brain trust and liked what he heard, but I’ll let him tell it in his own words: “Within Las Vegas, management is encouraged by
unrated play, particularly in the Downtown segment, where unrated play growth is outpacing that of rated play. Similar to comments we heard from other LV operators, BYD believes they have pricing power around peak periods/major events in LV and management is comfortable pushing [room rates] around those periods. At the California [Hotel], BYD is enjoying a 10-15% ADR increase on renovated rooms and customer feedback has been very positive.”

Boyd also told Santarelli it was testing new managerial technology “in order to rationalize promotional spend,” the better to sweat your comps. Slot inventory is unlikely to be upgraded as management doesn’t think the product out there justified the capex investment. While Boyd is open to selling any of its casinos for the right price, as an acquirer it is being more cautions, saying that “a significant number of assets [are] being marketed, but believes asking prices, on account of the presence of REITs, are elevated.” Those darn REITs!

* Speaking of technology, Seminole Hard Rock Tampa is the first casino in the U.S. to add International Game Technology‘s Sphinx 4D™ slots to its gambling floor. Considering that the fourth dimension is time, presumably the “4D” is to increase time on device, the slot manager’s bread and butter. “This is the world’s only glasses-free 3D machine in full ultra-HD resolution. For those who are seeking an interactive experience and who enjoy variety and big bonus action, these machines will definitely be appealing,” stated Dan Ingster, slots boss at Seminole Tampa. Congratulations on the Seminoles for being so forward-thinking.

* As long as we’re on the subject of bread and butter, the tax bill presently before Congress is very bad news for the casino industry. Not directly: Casinos wouldn’t face a heavier impost, as far as we know. However, Baby Boomers and Generation X would be very badly impacted by proposed removals of the standard mortgage deduction and the itemized-medical-expenses deductions. Wall Street can talk about “pent-up” demand until it’s blue in the face, but when Joe Average players are short of discretionary income, casinos will be s**t out of luck. You can’t fill 4,000-room hotels with whales.

* Santarelli was a busy man last week, visiting also with Station Casinos, which was forecasting good things from the phased-in use of its IGT casino-management system. “Recall, mgmt. believes returns on the $50 mm investment will move into the double-digit range over time. With respect to organic growth trends, [Station] does not believe share gains in the 3Q17 came at the expense of one particular operator. We continue to see upside in RRR at current levels, as we believe valuation remains very reasonable, especially given its leverage to the LV locals market, which remains one of the healthiest domestic gaming markets, with superior sightlines into future outperformance given macro conditions.”

Station leadership was bullish on its two-phased Palms renovation, predicting eventual double-digit ROI. They also spoke optimistically of local discretionary spending, contingent upon the construction of the pricey new stadium for the Oakland Raiders. The Fertitta Brothers‘ current focus is split between the Palms and bringing Palace Station up to state-of-the-art casino-hood. Durango Station will be revisited somewhere down the road and Reno is off in the hazy yon, despite a promising economic ramp-up in the region.

This entry was posted in Boyd Gaming, Downtown, Economy, Florida, IGT, Internet gambling, Marketing, Palms, Reno, Seminole Tribe, Sports, Station Casinos, Taxes, Technology, Tribal, Wall Street. Bookmark the permalink.