Case Bets: Kansas, Ohio & Singapore

Lyle Berman‘s casino project near Wichita is losing momentum. If you can’t afford to build even a 100-room hotel, times are dire indeed. Union Gaming‘s Bill Lerner makes the counter-argument that some casino is better than no casino. Raving Consulting pans Berman’s project, then gives it a thumbs-up (sort of like those fickle judges on Dancing with the Stars). A hotel of “something like a Hampton Inn quality” doesn’t spell “a true destination resort” to me, but expectations in Kansas have fallen so low they’re nearly prone on the ground by now.

The suddenly ubiquitous Berman also turns up in connection with the big casino push in Ohio. His own proposal having been voted down last year, Berman now finds himself on the outside looking in. The latest polling data shows Issue 3 (the casino plebiscite) headed for a landslide-sized victory, with 58% in support. The staunchest casino opponents are senior citizens and Republicans are of only modest help, being split right down the middle on Issue 3.

Unfortunately for the opposition, it hasn’t bothered to roll out one of its strongest potential arguments: Namely, by passing Issue 3, Ohioans will enshrine a duopoly (between Penn National Gaming and sports mogul Dan Gilbert) into the state constitution. S&G tends to frown upon that sort of restraint of trade but voters faced with high unemployment numbers are unlikely to overmuch concern themselves with such free-market niceties.

Singapore is banking on its two new casinos to deliver big time — as in growing visitation by seven million people from 2008’s 10 million. They’d better, since Singapore‘s paternalistic government is going out of its way to discourage its own citizenry from gambling. (The annual casino subscriptions mentioned in the article come with an exclusivity clause. So if you sign up with Resorts World Sentosa, you can’t play at Marina Bay Sands [above] for the duration of the year.) One analyst is sufficiently optimistic to predict 30% EBITDA or better. Although Las Vegas Sands frittered away its head start over Genting Bhd (the more established brand name in the region), its sleek $5.4 billion resort may wear better over the long haul over Genting’s cramped and tacky-sounding theme park.