Case Bets: Adelson vs. China; Cirque du Avatar? Indiana wallops Illinois

In a lengthy Asia Times dispatch, the reliable Muhammad Cohen runs through various scenarios about why the government of Macao would pull back two Cotai Strip™ sites from a ‘george’ investor like Las Vegas Sands. Since the acreage will probably be reallocated to tacky local favorite Stanley Ho, city hall’s preferred “economic diversification” argument doesn’t quite wash. The bottom line, per Cohen, is that the Chinese did this to Sheldon Adelson because A) they could and B) they don’t like him anymore. An Asia Times source says that the mogul has morphed into the Ugly American, crass and pushy. Sensational allegations of Adelsonian misconduct level by recently sacked Sands China CEO Steven Jacobs, may have also put Mr. Sands in bad odor with officialdom. Adelson’s recurring urge to publicly humiliate his former underlings has come back to bite him in the tuchus and it could very well cost him the completion of “Asia’s Las Vegas™.”

King of the Cirque? Although James Cameron might inject a soupçon of testosterone into the namby-pamby PC antics of Cirque du Soleil, is supersized 3-D Cirque going to scare the children? I’m setting the over-under at five years in production and a $329 million budget. Now they just have to find some clowns who are fluent in N’avi.

Windy City casino? I can’t think of any downtown areas in the U.S. less in need of casino enhancement (unless it’s up to the standard of MGM Grand Detroit or a Steve Wynn property) than that of Chicago. However, such an enterprise is pretty high on the wish list of Illinois lawmakers. Never mind that gaming revenue is at a 10-year ebb, it’s damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead. As casino lobbyist Tom Swoik says, it’s “like saying, ‘Homes have lost 32% of their value and the number of people buying homes is at an historic low, so let’s build more homes until we have three times the number we need.'”

But in Indiana … Last month’s revenues from Indiana are out and, in the Chicagoland market, Indiana-based casinos continue to clobber Illinois ones, $94 million to $66 million. Although Boyd Gaming‘s Blue Chip riverboat ($13.5 million last month) draws largely from Michigan, that’s still a stark disparity. Caesars Entertainment‘s Horseshoe Hammond riverboat is raking in more than double what Harrah’s Joliet brings in, $44 million to $20 million. All northern Indiana boats except Blue Chip (-2% and facing new tribal competition) were up in November while the four greater Chicago-area casinos in Illinois were all down.

The numbers also cosset some good news for Ameristar Casinos, whose property in East Chicago has halted a year-long skid set off by a bridge closure. Down south, several months of decline at Penn National Gaming‘s category-killing Hollywood Casino Lawrenceburg are bottoming out, too, as players appear to be gravitating back to Hoosier State racinos and even to long-suffering French Lick Casino (three solid months of gains). Although it’s much farther from Cincinnati than is Hollywood, the Grand Victoria riverboat looks seriously imperiled by the prospective opening of a Caesars Entertainment casino in the Queen City. It’s easily the weakest performer in the area and is having a rough time keeping pace with the competition that’s already in place.

No easy choices. That’s what confronts new Resorts Atlantic City boss Dennis Gomes, who has to reverse the tailspin the property experienced under the calamitous stewardship of Colony Capital. Between being relieved of Colony’s crippling debt-service burden and cutting down payroll, Gomes projects the casino will be back in the black by late 2Q11. Still, the road to profitability is lined with tough choices, such as whether or not to risk secondhand smoke on your casino floor or letting go an employee who’s been with the property since 1983. That’s very sad — but inevitable in a city that’s got more casinos than the market will support.