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Sands low on Vegas, Boyd upbeat, mixed signals from Station

Yesterday it was Las Vegas Sands‘ turn with JP Morgan gaming analysts and the company was full of surprises. Little of its commentary had to do with the Las Vegas Strip, about which it was “downbeat,” what with conventioneers and high rollers being in short supply. “LVS hasn’t pursued the relatively less profitable drive-in customer, and doesn’t look to pivot from its group/convention focus as management still expects a full recovery here,” wrote analyst Joseph Greff, adding that layoffs had nonetheless been “limited.” Off the burner entirely is Sands’ planned U.S. shopping spree for casinos. This was “made under the presumption that assets would be deeply mispriced during the crisis, but at this point, they look to have largely recovered.” (Good news if you are a holder of said assets.) Instead Sands will look to pick up additional properties “where it already has a presence,” i.e., Asia.

The company’s focus was mainly on Macao and Singapore. In the latter, it expects recovery to be “gradual” rather than dramatic “as China will be prudent in allowing the number of visas to increase gradually over time.” As with MGM Resorts International, customer interest is said to be strong, especially in premium mass-market play, although Sands hopes its bread-and-butter players return in time for the rollout of the Londoner and Four Seasons Tower Suites. The company actually expects better cash flow in Macao this year than last. Locals and their slot play are keeping Marina Bay Sands “on the road to profitability,” despite zippo overseas patronage. But it won’t be business as usual until Malaysia and Japan reopen themselves to Singaporean traffic.

Caesars, MGM: Recovery slow but promising

Caesars Entertainment CEO Tom Reeg sat down with JP Morgan analysts to discuss the state of the Roman Empire. In a sentence, better than you might expect. On the Las Vegas Strip “weekend demand has been strong, but weekday demand remains a challenge,” reported analyst Daniel Politzer. Labor Day was good for business, with 95% occupancy. Meeting restrictions and “slowly grinding” air traffic impede midweek business for the moment. The revenue mix is normalizing, with gambling down from 50% during summer toward the usual 35% or 40%. Sports betting is bringing in a different-from-usual customer, and both terrestrial sportsbooks and online betting are profitable. Still, Reeg seems to have few illusions as to what he’s up against. “Management sees its most formidable competitors as FanDuel and DraftKings (proven ability to convert DFS into sports betting customers), PENN/Barstool (strong/engaged Barstool audience), and possibly MGM/GVC … CZR feels good about its market access, will continually be upgrading/improving its technology, and aims to give more detail on its plan for its brand/unlocking value by year-end.”

MGM rushes where Caesars fears to tread; Cullotta croaks

“By the end of the year” is MGM Resorts International‘s new timeline for reopening Park MGM. Archrival Caesars Entertainment is proceeding somewhat more circumspectly with its casino reopenings. “Caesars will open its remaining Las Vegas properties in line with customer demand, regulatory requirements and any additional health and safety considerations,” the company told the Los Angeles Times. Given that convention business is nada, zip, zilch, we’re puzzled as to why MGM has been so aggressive about rebooting the Las Vegas Strip unless it is for the sake of appearances … and to entice midweek business. As for Wynn Resorts‘ giant payroll dump of Le Reve, “I think that’s gotten a lot of people nervous in Las Vegas,” comments Las Vegas Review-Journal entertainment columnist John Katsilmotes. However, he thinks Cirque du Soleil will come back, bit by bit. “We’re still dealing with a kind of value customer in Las Vegas right now, the drive-in crowd who are looking for a bargain.” Cirque a bargain? If you say so.

Covid tourism at Bally’s; College football conundrum

When Bally’s Las Vegas announced that the Real Bodies exhibit would be adding “Covid-19 Content” we admittedly feared the worst: corpses of Coronavirus victims on display. While cashing in on Covid-19 is in questionable taste, Real Bodies seems to be attempting a conscientious job of educating the public: “The attraction, featuring 20 real, perfectly preserved human bodies and more than 200 anatomical specimens now includes the latest science-based information about the novel coronavirus, including 3-D printed virus models, and a COVID-19 short film explaining in everyday language how the virus reacts to your body and how it can be spread. Interesting facts about the virus, including how it affects each of the different body systems,” reads the press release. (emphasis in the original) Now the question is whether Sin City tourists, trying to escape pandemic coverage, will welcome a refresher course. Then again, who thought a display of cadavers would be one of the Las Vegas Strip’s longest-lasting tourist attractions?

New hope for Station; Raider Nation exiled

Station Casinos reported second-quarter results yesterday and JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff came away “encouraged” and “impressed.” He wrote of “less bad results in April and May and much better positive [cash flow] generation in June.” How so? In its first month of resumed operations, Station generated $100 million in net revenue. Closed properties were only a “modest” drag on the numbers. “July is reported to be similar to June (though seasonally July is not as strong as June) with revenues benefitting from being ‘one of the only games in town,’ with limited national sports to watch and closed bars, theaters and nightclubs in LV.” Marketing is down, as are salaries (7K fewer employees). Greff predicts a “leveling off” in the second half of 2020, explaining, “Some of the positive spend and visitation activity in June and July is likely not sustainable (think of recent unemployment benefits, which is probably one of the reasons why younger versus older casino patrons were stronger).” On the other hand, lower levels of casino employment cut into Station’s player base.

The Wildfire properties are on hold, according to Greff, given Gov. Steve Sisolak‘s policy on bars. But most other Station casinos are back on line. Visitation is trending down but individual spending is up, as is coin-in. Las Vegas operations suffered 78% compared to 2Q19 and Native American management income was down to $6 million, a 75% slippage. Oh, and CEO Frank Fertitta III floated the possibility that the Palms, Texas Station, Fiesta Henderson and Fiesta Rancho might never reopen, just en passant. Greff didn’t see fit to mention it but, if economists like John Restrepo are right, the Las Vegas economy is headed for a major realignment.

Case Bets

Something good came out of Washington, D.C. today. (How often can one type that sentence?) Reps. Dina Titus (D) and Guy Reschenthaler (R) introduced bipartisan legislation to repeal the excise taxes and head taxes (a $50 annual levy on every employee receiving bets) imposed by the guvmint on legal sports books. We don’t know how an avaricious Congress will react, but go for it. Or, as American Gaming Association President Bill Miller said, “To absorb the unnecessary burden of these taxes, legal sportsbooks are forced to offer worse odds and payouts or reduce investment in promoting legal betting channels to the public. Furthermore, the head tax serves as an impediment to hiring at a time when providing jobs is critical.” Amen.

By the way, we’re still admiring Miller’s verbal jujitsu before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Intransigence would have gotten him nowhere but, if you read between the lines of Miller’s statement to the committee, he outlines what sort of federal regulation (emphasizing a crackdown on illegal betting sites) the gaming industry will and won’t accept. We hope Sens. Mitt Romney (R) and Chuck Schumer (D) were listening. As for committee chairman Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), he’s so far off on the fringe regarding gambling that his views are probably irrelevant.

“Extreme” pessimism in Las Vegas; The D pisses for safety

Writing off the 2Q20 results as “less than relevant,” JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff was guardedly optimistic about Las Vegas Sands, even though management’s conference call “shed little light on the path of recovery in Macau SAR, Singapore or Las Vegas,” the latter being described as “impaired in the near term.” (We’ll say!) Greff’s outlook was buoyed by the lifting of quarantines in China that “will allow for improving [gross gaming revenue] trends in Macau, a gaming-/travel-dependent market that experienced the COVID-19 downturn first and should experience a bounce/recovery earlier, at least in relation to potential recoveries on the Las Vegas Strip and in U.S. business travel lodging markets.” Singapore will be a relative laggard “given airlift dependency and sourcing players from multiple geographies that are also reeling from various travel restrictions.” As for Sin City, “Las Vegas was described in extremely pessimistic terms given that market’s airlift capacity and group/convention dependence, the latter of which was described as a zero for the rest of 2020 and a big segment of its (normalized) profit.” (emphasis added)

Atlantic City: The fix was in

In a sham ritual (only two of five members were present), the New Jersey Casino Control Commission green-lit the Eldorado Resorts takeover of Caesars Entertainment. Effectively rebuking the recommendations of the Division of Gaming Enforcement, the two commissioners allowed deed restrictions imposed by Caesars remain in place at the Showboat, Atlantic Club and Claridge Hotel. Regulators are sometimes accused of stifling economic development and this would be a clear case in point. What’s more, gaming-entitled Boardwalk land is in finite supply and the NJCCC has effectively reduced it further, in its prostration before Eldorado. NJCCC Chairman James Plousis voiced platitudes that the merged companies “would be in a position to harm fair competition in the Atlantic City market.” Yet it was his idea to leave the deed restrictions in place.

Las Vegas: The first shall be last

Las Vegas: The first shall be last

Don’t stay up late waiting for business in Las Vegas to return to “normal” levels. Sin City is uniquely vulnerable to downturns in the U.S. economy (think of the Great Recession) and a trailing indicator of gambling’s health. The prime beneficiaries of the reopening of the U.S. casino economy are going to be regional casinos, closely followed by tribal ones, then Atlantic City and finally Las Vegas. At least Atlantic City has an ocean to recommend it. Regional and tribal resorts are in an unexpectedly favorable position. With no live entertainment, much fine dining out of commission and not much to offer but gambling, Las Vegas has no compelling advantage over staying close to home. Good for the industry, which spurred regional diversification in the early 2000s. Not so good for Las Vegas, which relies on offering things you can’t find anywhere else. Not these days.

Nor is it just a matter of tourism. The recent collapse of Global Gaming Expo highlighted how vulnerable the Las Vegas Strip is to the vicissitudes of the convention business. If trade shows and expos don’t firm up in 3Q20 and 4Q20, the year will be a massive write-off, reliant upon weekend business to prop it up. Perhaps the best news Las Vegas can hope for is that the Moderna vaccine for Coronavirus continues to show promise (it has improved life for 45 test subjects to date) because, barring a watershed event in public health, Las Vegas is going to be something of a pariah. Then again, if Jacksonville becomes too fetid to host the Republican national convention, there are plenty of empty exhibit halls going begging in Sin City …

See Vegas and die

See Vegas and die

Phil Ruffin and Terry Caudill are singled out as bad actors in a sweeping new lawsuit being filed even as we speak by the Culinary Union. It alleges, among other things, that neither Circus Circus nor the Four Queens nor Binion’s Gambling Hall has an employee-safety plan in place. (Before the casino shutdown, S&G graded Ruffin’s Treasure Island safety response an “F.”) Many of the names of other alleged offenders remain unknown but the Culinary charges that only 11 operators test their employees for Coronavirus, leaving 55% that don’t. The lawsuit appears to be a preemptive strike at any hold-harmless legislation that might sneak out of Washington, D.C. (After all, one Vegas resort owner currently occupies a nice pied-a-terre at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.)

The Culinary has been pretty tight-lipped but spokeswoman Bethany Khan loosened up sufficiently to say, “The lawsuit alleges casino hotels have not protected workers, their families, and their community from the spread of Covid-19, and that the current rules and procedures in place for responding to workers contracting Covid-19 have been wholly and dangerously inadequate.” That’s a pretty damning assertion. We’ll see today what the Culinary has to back it up.

Penn, Boyd bushwhack jobs

Penn, Boyd bushwhack jobs

There’s still no timeline for Tropicana Las Vegas to reopen, certainly not by mid-July. That news comes as Penn National Gaming slashed 2,575 jobs over eight states. Evidently Penn doesn’t expect the current surge in business to last, as most of the job cuts will come in August, with more in September. Hollywood St. Louis, one of the company’s most lucrative casinos, is targeted for 455 sackings, while nearby River City eliminated 329 jobs. Hollywood Columbus and Hollywood Dayton will lose 300 positions. M Resort will get hit with 328 firings, Argosy Riverside in Kansas City with 289 and Kansas Speedway casino with 218.

At the corporate level, 233 positions will be eliminated. As bad as all that looks, it’s nothing compared to the austerity program underway at Boyd Gaming, which has warned of 60% workforce reductions at some of its casinos. (As many as 1,800 jobs at The Orleans could be impacted.) As for Penn, it said the layoffs “are the unfortunate result of COVID-19 related business circumstances that were sudden, dramatic, and beyond our control,” in a letter to the Nevada Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation. It continued, “These significant drags on our business will likely continue for the foreseeable future.”

“The calculus of reopening”

There seems to be a perception abroad in the land that, because Coronavirus is abating we’re out of the woods and can revert to pre-Covid-19 conduct. Reports of people wildly disregarding social distancing (now being downgraded to “appropriate distancing,” whatever the Sam Hill that is) on casino floors bear this out. And the recent spate of civil-rights marches poses an existential question of whether protesting heinous injustice outweighs creating one’s own roving “hot zone” (a complex conundrum with which we continue to wrestle). Former casino boss Richard Schuetz has a column today that is must-reading (as Schuetz usually is). He talks about the grim realpolitik of reopening casinos, saying, “Anyone who suggests there will not be any deaths associated with coronavirus as a result of the reopening of the casinos simply does not

Union: Where there’s a will, there’s a way

Discontent with casino management is spreading from Las Vegas to the Gulf Coast and beyond. In a Unite-Here teleconference, local union President Marlene Patrick Cooper expressed the general sentiment, saying, “This is a disaster that’s 10 times worse than Katrina. They chose to keep their stockpile of cash for the investors. That came off the backs of these workers.” Added bartender Jaron Ashley, “The money is not the problem. It’s the want-to.” Like their Vegas counterparts, Mississippi casino employees want to be kept on the payroll throughout the duration of the Covid-19 crisis. Bartender Jason McKnight, dialing in from Harrah’s Resort in Atlantic City, called for casino accountability, “You’re going to go to the government and say, ‘We need a bailout,’” he said. “Well, where’s our bailout?” Indeed, low-interest loans from the guvmint are intended, in large part, to keep workers

Macao bad, worse to come; No casinos for Brazil

Macao bad, worse to come; No casinos for Brazil

“With the government keeping limitations on individual and group visas into the market and transportation options remaining impaired we believe the Macau market could take five to seven months to start stabilizing and showing improvement,” Stifel Financial analyst Steven Wieczynski says. ‘Impaired’ is putting it nicely. If you’re returning from Macao through infected Guangdong Province, you face a 14-day quarantine upon returning home, which could send Macanese tourism into even more of a tailspin. Also, unless you have a visa predating the February shutdown (since lifted) or a business one, you can’t visit the gambling capital of the world. Visitors from outside China are banned outright.

Playing at a Macanese casino is hardly conducive to a good time. You have to wear a mask and have your temperature taken. Private VIP gambling salons are reputed to be

No recovery in Macao

No recovery in Macao

Despite the lifting of a government quarantine, casino revenues in Macao did not bounce back last month, down 80% to $664 million. That’s worse than forecast (70%). Tourism restrictions prompted by a second boomlet of Covid-19 in Macao didn’t help. Only 230 tourists visited last Sunday. Macanese leadership is resisting pressure to close casinos again and is pressing Beijing for a lift on visa restrictions. Operators may have made a couple of critical mistakes: One was to shut hotel rooms to Coronavirus patients even though the Macanese government was willing to pay for their use, denying themselves room revenue. The other was to bank on

Boyd opens its wallet, stringency at Scientific, improvidence at MGM

Boyd opens its wallet, stringency at Scientific, improvidence at MGM

Boyd Gaming, which had previously been reported to be giving two weeks pay (misreported as one week by the Las Vegas Review-Journal) to employees idled in Las Vegas by the one-month casino shutdown, has gotten “george” and extended the hardship pay through April 10. Ditto health benefits. Cautioned CEO Keith Smith, This is a highly fluid situation, and it is too early to determine at what point we may be able to resume operations at each property.” Workers will still have to cannibalize paid time off to scrape by the week between the cutoff of severance pay and the April 17 scheduled resumption of business, but this is a praiseworthy move nevertheless, as is Boyd’s suspension of dividend payments.

It’s certainly a more time-sensitive one that the recommendation of MGM China to—Ka-ching!pay out $41 million in dividends. Hello? Heard of Coronavirus? The thing that shut your casinos down for 15 days and has caused business to become

The last good month; NBA to resurrect in Vegas?

Las Vegas Strip gaming revenue was flat in February at $596 million and probably should have been better, given the presence of an extra weekend day. (Statewide, revenues were up 3%.) Strip slots were robust, gaining 7% on 7.5% higher coin-in, but non-baccarat table win was flat despite 9.5% higher wagering. Baccarat win was the spider at the picnic, falling 11.5% on 1% less wagering. Given that the comparison was a -2% February 2019, surpassing last year shouldn’t have been difficult. Locals casinos were flat, too, especially at the slots, where coin-in was up 3%. Some end-of-January handle got rolled into February but the latter also ended on

Stimulus is here, recovery … who knows?

It’s still not a done deal but what Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) calls “emergency relief” emerged from the Senate yesterday. A few jerks tried to hold it up with the preposterous argument that “the expanded unemployment benefits were overly generous and would encourage workers to get laid off.” They were beaten back and the unemployed got their due. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D) complained that the final bill didn’t go far enough, but the perfect will always be the enemy of the good. Or as Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) wrote to his colleagues, “Like all compromises, this bill is far from perfect. But we believe the legislation has improved sufficiently to warrant its quick consideration and passage.”

Among the areas prioritized for relief are “businesses that have been forced to make huge job cuts in recent weeks,” which certainly applies to the casino industry. American Gaming Association President Bill Miller greeted the passage of the bill by

Wynn Resorts defended; Trump stiffs hotel employees

JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff came riding to the aid of Wynn Resorts this week. “COVID-19’s evolving impact has created a lot of share price carnage in the gaming and lodging sector, to state the obvious. Its impact should be significant and its magnitude and duration uncertain, but it should not have a permanent, forever impact. And one of the more interesting values, in our view, when we look across this carnage, is WYNN,” he wrote. That isn’t because Macao is improving (“it’s really not”) or that China‘s government is easing up on visas (it isn’t) or even that Las Vegas will rebound speedily (it probably won’t). No, Wynn’s “low levels are good entry points for those with a longer time horizon and a buy-and-hold view.” Although it’s wallowing around $57/share right now, Greff sees WYNN shooting back up to $93/share.

Greff argues that the market is crediting “almost zero net value” to Wynn’s Las Vegas and Boston assets. “To us, this seems overly

Poverty in the suites; Industry ramps up bailout pressure

Sheldon Adelson is worth $28 billion today. Which doesn’t sound so bad until you consider that he was worth $40 billion before the Wall Street crash. That’s the literal price of owning 432,000,000 shares of Las Vegas Sands. Not that ill-fortune is crimping Sheldon’s lifestyle. He just put down $17 million on a pied-a-terre in Malibu, his ninth residence in the Colony gated community. Compared to the $138 million that Steve Wynn wants for his SoCal mansion, we’d say Adelson is a real bargain hunter. Speaking of the Wynn family, Elaine Wynn lost a cool billion in the stock market, bringing her wealth down to $1.4 billion. The Fertitta Brothers are now worth $1.6 billion apiece, which they’ll need as the fallout of a Las Vegas recession on Station Casinos would be dire indeed. But the really ill-advised tycoon may be

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