Las Vegas Sands

Cosmopolitan drinks its own bathwater

Sucker bait.

Late yesterday Bloomberg broke the news that Blackstone Inc. is shopping The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas … for a $5 billion minimum price. What’s even more incredible is that apparently it has suckers, er, corporations already on the hook. Why is the asking price so absurd? Consider that the Cosmo was built for $3.9 billion back in 2010 and that Blackstone obtained it from Deutsche Bank for a fire-sale $1.7 billion. We’re talking some serious profiteering here, folks. (Ya ever hear of depreciation, Blackstone?) Consider also that the Cosmo has 3,027 rooms while $4 billion Aria has 4,000 and $4.3 billion Resorts World Las Vegas boasts 3,506. So Blackstone wants more money for a smaller property. They’ve got some nerve.

Even crazier is that Apollo Management, not yet having taken the $6.25 billion keys to Venelazzo, is already circling the Cosmo and that MGM Resorts International might splurge on the megaresort, perhaps with a view to augmenting CityCenter. Does Bill Hornbuckle light cigars with $100 bills? Between a $9 billion commitment to Osaka and a potential $5 billion-plus indulgence on the Cosmo, MGM hardly seems the epitome of carefully targeted investment. (Remember that the Japanese casino can only occupy 3% of the megaresort’s total square footage.) At Blackstone’s initial put, one would have to generate a near-impossible $600 million in annual cash flow to have a prayer of a 15% return on investment. In other words, it would have to be THE GREATEST GAMING JUGGERNAUT OF ALL TIME. And if you believe that, let me sell you this bridge in Brooklyn … Apollo may cover its ass by going halves with Vici Properties but we’re still talking a helluva heavy lift. Normally it would be cheaper to buy than build on the Strip but these are far-from-normal times.

CC by KK at XV

By Jeff Leatherock, guest contributor

CityCenter, the last and largest Las Vegas project by Las Vegas’ largest builder nears 15 years old. The concept probably started before 2006 and completion was a few years later. So, claiming 15 kinda fits in a lazy fashion.

Kirk Kerkorian was the most active and largest developer of Las Vegas casino properties in history. He liked to “go large”. His list of “largest” includes the International (currently Westgate) in 1969; the first MGM Grand (currently Bally’s) in 1973; the current MGM Grand in 1994, which were each the “largest hotel on earth” at the time of their construction. He then embarked on the “largest privately funded construction development in America” with “Project CityCenter” in the early 2000s. Kerkorian was in his 90s at the launch of CityCenter, so I think it is safe to say he never lacked for financial courage, vision or hope for the future.

CityCenter was planned for roughly 75 acres bounded by Las Vegas Boulevard on the east, I-15 on the west, Monte Carlo Hotel & Casino (now Park MGM) on the south, and parts of the Cosmopolitan, Jockey Club and Bellagio on the north.

Has Japan jumped the shark?

That in essence is the question posed today by Global Gaming Business, in an excellent article by Marjorie Preston. And if GGB is querying the viability of the Nipponese casino market you know things are bad. Even normally bullish Brendan Bussman tempers his optimism with caution as regards the 30% tax on casino revenues, saying “any time you have a tax rate at that level across the board on slots and tables, it’s difficult for any operator to make the numbers make sense. You could say the same thing about Chicago, which is a 40 percent effective tax rate. That’s why everybody’s pulled out of Chicago.”

Already the heavyweights are retreating. Sample verdicts include those of Wynn Resorts CEO Matt Maddox who said he’d withdraw “if it doesn’t make financial sense.” And it didn’t. Ditto Las Vegas Sands CEO Rob Goldstein: “We’re used to writing big checks, but all that money on one [megaresort] makes you stop, pinch yourself and ask if you can get the returns your shareholders deserve.” The only megawatt operator who’s favored to cinch a spot is MGM Resorts International, which will have to invest $9 billion for the privilege. Elsewhere, cities have chosen to go with obscure Canadian private equity firm Clairvest (?!?!?) and Casinos Austria, which doesn’t currently run anything remotely on the scale the Japanese government wants. Sure, Melco Resorts & Entertainment and Genting Group still have a shot at Yokohama but …

Open season in New York; Ohio, Missouri boom; Scientific baffles

Hero to zero in less than a year.

Rather than face (well-deserved) impeachment, New York State Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned in disgrace today. Which happened to coincide with the disclosure of the companies which have applied to be online sports betting provider(s) for the Empire State. Cuomo’s not-a-moment-t00-soon departure means that the contenders can hope not to be shaken down or chosen on the basis of how usuriously they are willing to be taxed (isn’t that tantamount to bribe solicitation, guv?). And Cuomo’s obvious favorite, DraftKings, now faces a level playing field. At least that is our hope. The finalists will be Bet365, Penn National Gaming/Kambi, FanDuel/BetMGM/DraftKings, TSG/FoxBet, TheScore and a jumbled combination of Kambi/Caesars Entertainment/Resorts World/PointsBet/WynnBet/Rush Street Interactive. DraftKings still has a very good chance of getting one of the plums, if for no other than reason than it’s riding the coattails of MGM and favorite son Empire City Yonkers. The second Kambi combination platter also has an edge since it contains two other New York brick-and-mortar operators, Rush Street and Resorts World.

“We expect to learn of the winning consortiums, and we believe two will be chosen, in the next 4-6 weeks. Based on the criteria put forth in the RFA, we believe there are obvious front runners from the list, and those for whom the prospects appear dim, based on their track records relative to the RFA selection criteria. That said, it’s New York and anything can happen,” wrote Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank. Yes, anything can happen. Just ask Andrew Cuomo.

Wynn “strong” this summer; MGM returning to form

Wynn Resorts released 2Q21 results yesterday and JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff called them “strong” in both Las Vegas and Boston. In Macao, eh, not so much. He began by saying “results by region unsurprisingly reflect differences in vaccination rates and mobility/visitation availability.” Wynncore is gaining momentum as the temperature rises, posting the largest cash flow ever since except when it opened. Occupancy hovered around 95% on weekends and in the 80% neighborhood during midweek. “In Macau, limited mobility and small outbreaks continue to pressure travel, unsurprising and similar to 2Q commentary from” Sands China and Melco Resorts & Entertainment. As for WynnBet, it “expects to ramp up marketing ahead of the NFL season,” which seems to be a nice way of saying nothing much is happening right now. Wynncore generated $207 million in cash flow compared to a feeble (and worse than expected) $67.5 million in cash flow from all the Macanese properties. Wynn Macau and Encore Macau only contributed $14 million, while Wynn Palace has finally found its sea legs with a $53.5 million donation. Encore Boston Harbor was a little bit under certain projections at $47 million, though it improves month by month.

Due to a sharp decline in VIP play in Macao, Wynn Resorts is remarketing them as premium mass-market casinos, in order to get pre-Covid revenues without pre-Covid foot traffic. As Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli put it, “Las Vegas & Boston shine as Macau remains a waiting game.” Word! “We don’t think we heard anything from management tonight that will meaningfully change the view on the resumption of normalized operations in Macau, with management acknowledging an uncertain timeline, while noting encouraging trend that resemble pent up demand at certain times,” he elaborated. “We expect the Macau names to continue to trade on virus headlines and policy decisions, things we, nor most, can truly opine on with any legitimate confidence.” Back in Vegas, business is fueled by slot fanatics, with coin-in up 37% and table wagering down 3%. Blame the latter on a lack of international players.

MGM does the right thing; Killer chipmunks in Lake Tahoe

In a very george move, MGM Resorts International is donating two acres of Strip land to be the site of a memorial to the victims of the Mandalay Bay Massacre. The acreage, at the corner of Reno Avenue and Giles Street, is part of the larger area where the infamous Route 91 Harvest festival took place. The exact nature of the memorial remains to be debated and we’re sure it will be a contentious process. But we’re also certain that MGM could have seen megabucks for the two acres on the open market and chose to pass that up in favor of a generous gesture toward the Las Vegas community. (Sixty people died and hundreds were injured due to the act of domestic terrorism.) “Having a permanent memorial commemorating the victims and heroes of 1 October is vital to our community’s continued healing, and we are honored to donate a portion of the Village site to help bring that memorial to fruition,” read a formal MGM statement. We’ve often been critical of MGM’s response to the victims of the shooting but would like to think we’ve saluted it when it’s done the right thing. As it just did.

Gaming & Leisure Properties Inc. is dropping ominous hints about the future of the Las Vegas Tropicana, feeding into speculation that owner-to-be Bally’s Inc. will demolish the venerable resort so that its 35 acres can be converted into a baseball stadium. This would be the cruelest in a series of cruel blows to the Trop, which has suffered from a series of poor or inattentive ownerships. Admittedly, at 64 years of age, the Trop is ancient history by Vegas standards—and Bally’s might be left at the altar. The Oakland Athletics have reopened negotiations with Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf, suggesting that Sin City just got played by the big boys. Since the A’s are committed to Oakland through 2024, Bally’s doesn’t have to make any rash decisions regarding the Trop’s immediate future.

Masks back on, Las Vegas!; All’s right with the REITs

Mincing few words, MGM Resorts International CEO Bill Hornbuckle sent a letter to all employees, urging them to quit dithering and get their Covid-19 vaccinations, if they haven’t already. He pleaded, “In addition to the heart-wrenching thought of more illness and death, I fear that progressively more restrictive measures, including a return to social distancing and capacity restrictions, could be around the corner if we continue on this path. This would be a significant blow to our community, industry, and economy.” Clark County‘s current vaccination rate currently stands as a dismal 44%. The county is reliably “blue” territory, so this crisis goes beyond political chumming of the anti-vaxxer waters. Playing to his audience’s wallets, Hornbuckle warned that, as Las Vegas‘ health goes, so does its economy. If Coronavirus worsens and scares tourists away, furloughs and layoffs could follow. He wrote, “After the pain endured by so many these past 16 months–and the tremendous progress made in 2021–I can think of no more damaging scenario for us as a community.”

We think that Hornbuckle and others in like positions in Big Gaming are stopping one step short and need to mandate vaccination for their workers. If little outfits like Google, Facebook, Twitter, Netflix, Lyft, Morgan Stanley, Saks Fifth Avenue, The Washington Post, Ascension Health and BlackRock can do it, MGM can. We know you’re feeling cabin fever and ‘pandemic fatigue’ out there, America. We feel your pain. It would be great if events ran in a bright, linear fashion. But this is a war, a once-in-a-century calamity and, had we been so easily discouraged in the 1940s, the Axis powers would have won World War II (gladdening the heart of Imperial Palace founder Ralph Engelstad).

LV Sands overpromises, underdeliver; Court to Station: Unionize!

Shares of Las Vegas Sands traded down yesterday after the company missed its second-quarter estimates. Wall Street expected cash flow of $290.5 million and LVS delivered $244 million, a significant shortfall. (Mind you, Sands no longer reports earnings from Venelazzo.) Revenue overall was $1.17 billion, not the expected $1.37 billion. Sands execs blew sunshine up Wall Street’s keister, predicting better Macao business in the third and fourth quarters, albeit conceding that Singapore was harder to predict. Due to Marina Bay Sands-derived Coronavirus cases, the megaresort is closed from today through August 5. As for LVS’ new focus on i-gaming, the company is thinking small, planning to act as a supplier to other online companies and make minor purchases. Or, as President Patrick Dumont wisely put it, “I don’t think we’re going to buy our way into a business.”

Back on terra firma, CEO Rob Goldstein is still in denial about Texas after the company’s stunning rejection there, while continuing to ramp up ($17 million and counting) a ballot drive in Florida to permit new resort casinos. The company is concentrating on the gaming-averse northern part of the Sunshine State, going out of its way not to antagonize the powerful and well-heeled Seminole Tribe.

Las Vegas flirting with disaster; Pennsylvania sickly

With the exception of brave outliers Las Vegas Sands and Westgate Las Vegas, most casinos in Sin City are reacting to the resurgence of Covid-19 by doing … nothing. There’s a ‘been there, done that‘ attitude toward crisis-period measures like requiring guests to wear masks or stepping up hotel sanitization (one recent guest to Harrah’s Las Vegas says his room was cleaned once in four days). “Where we sit right now with the information we know, that’s the best approach, for each operator to evaluate their own situations,” said industry apologist Josh Swissman. “It really comes down to what makes the customers feel comfortable.” And if that means sickness and death, isn’t that the cost of doing business in Las Vegas? About the only hammer that could be deployed to motivate a robust response would be new safety mandates from the Nevada Gaming Control Board and we don’t seem to be at that desperate juncture yet. (Operative word “yet.”)

Atlantic City plays catch-up; Pennsylvania, Michigan flex online muscles

Casinos in Atlantic City are having trouble catching a wave from the Great Reopening. Last month’s brick-and-mortar revenues were $214.5 million, 9% down from 2019. Slot win ($154 million) was 8% lower on 11% less coin-in and luck wasn’t with the house at the tables: 16% less revenue ($58.5 million) on only 1% less wagering. Borgata ($56.6 million) was luckier in that respect than most, with its table win flat despite 11% less betting, while slots plunged 20% on 23% less coin-in for an overall -13%. The Caesars Entertainment threesome slid 15%, on 17% lower slot win (18% less handle) and an 8% dip at the tables, where players bet 7% less than two years ago. Caesars Atlantic City fell 14% to $20 million last month, Harrah’s Resort slipped 13% to $21 million and Tropicana Atlantic City tumbled 18% to $21 million.

The only-revenue positive casinos were Ocean Resort, gaining 14% to $23 million (outdoing any Caesars property), and Hard Rock Atlantic City, surging 17% to $35 million. It will take more than new, pink windows to turn around Bally’s Atlantic City, plummeting 30% to $11 million. Also falling on hard times was the Golden Nugget, down 23% to $12 million, which left Resorts Atlantic City, down 11% to $14 million.

Nevada conventions healthy, Nevadans not so much

Tourism to Las Vegas in May was 12% higher than April and June should continue the climb, even if long-awaited World of Concrete was a flop (one-sixth of the expected attendance). Next up was the Nightclub & Bar Show, which drew 9,000 attendees. “I have goosebumps,” said one conventioneer of the back-to-almost-normal atmosphere. Despite the pounding techno music, amenities ran toward such mundane finger foods as Cheetos and tater tots. Portable bowling alleys and karaoke machines were among the items of interest. Evidently attendance was a last-minute decision for some, judging from the on-site registrations spotted by the Wall Street Journal. Most of the products on display were rather humble, such as a new drinking game (patent pending?) and a green-colored schnapps called Nuke Waste—how apt for Nevada.

It wasn’t quite the Nightclub & Bar Show of years past, being significantly chastened by Covid concerns. Where the expo had once been synonymous with six nights of clubbing, this year there were but two. Panels and (the more important) happy hours were also curtailed. Attendance was down 15%, exhibitors by 20%, which is still a lot better than World of Concrete managed. “Most of my sales from 1980 until today are still in-person,” said game entrepreneur Bobby Earp. “There’s no substitute for the contacts we make here.” Attendees were more worried about rising labor costs and flagging social-media presences than about Coronavirus. Even if the event was rather muted, the expo floor was awash with booze, which was freely sampled, one of the great bonuses of almost any Vegas convention. With 35 large-scale events booked between now and the end of the year, the Sin City convention calendar looks surprisingly healthy.

Case Bets

Crown Resorts is in the soup again. Businessman and fugitive from justice Michael Gu allegedly used Crown Melbourne as a sieve through which to strain $8 million in Ponzi scheme money. “Authorities believe he conned clients by claiming he was buying a portfolio of commercial property in Australia. In fact, he and his CFO, Harry Huang, were misappropriating investor funds to pay other investors while living the high life, according to a report by administrator KPMG,” reports Casino.org. Where did the money go? Try two Lamborghinis, a Rolls Royce Wraith, a Ferrari GTB, an Audi Q7 and a McLaren Spider. Gu also deposited ill-gotten funds at Crown Melbourne over a three-year period and withdrew them for gambling.

In no position to appear lax, Crown thundered, “We are treating this matter seriously and have immediately launched an investigation into the allegations. Crown will ensure regulators, the royal commissions, and other relevant authorities are informed and updated as required.” The company had better get on the stick. Australian regulators have discovered that Crown Melbourne helped move $120 million out of China over a four-year period, a red flag if ever there was one, especially since the money was used to book nonexistent hotel rooms.

Florida gets tag-teamed; Penn upbeat on 2021; Vegas room rates soar

This is how it’s done. Or supposed to be done. DraftKings and FanDuel are teaming to back a petition drive to legalize sports betting in Florida. Aimed at the November 2022 election ballot, the resolution would dedicate tax revenues from sports betting to funding for education. As opposed to Gov. Ron De Santis‘ Hard Rock International-controlled setup of sports betting, the proposed constitutional amendment would create an open market. The federal Interior Department is currently scrutinizing the DeSantis compact, which uses a rather absurd construal of ‘tribal lands’ whereby you could place a mobile wager from your back porch and—because it must pass through a Seminole Tribe computer server—it is deemed ‘tribal’ gaming. Also, the Florida Lege is constitutionally enjoined from authorizing any expansion of gambling in the Sunshine State. Even if Interior Secretary Deb Haaland signs off on this misshapen afterbirth of the congress between DeSantis and the Seminoles, litigation at the state level is already in train. We hate to agree with Rob Sowinski of No Casinos but the compact really needs to be struck down.

We don’t know the full details of the DraftKings/FanDuel proposal yet but it appears on the surface to be a more-palatable alternative. One thing Florida Education Champions don’t address is tribal sports betting. Their amendment would simply deal parimutuels and professional sports parks into the action. Seminole Gaming spokesman Gary Bitner fumed that the petition drive “is a political Hail Mary from out-of-state corporations trying to interfere with the business of the people of Florida.” Ah, but it was those same people of Florida who decreed that the Lege had no say in the spread of gaming. Harrumphed Bitner, “They couldn’t stop Florida’s new gaming compact, which passed by an overwhelming 88 percent ‘yes’ vote from Florida’s elected legislators and enjoys 3-to-1 support from Floridians and guarantees $2.5 billion in revenue sharing. The guarantee is the largest commitment by any gaming company in U.S. history.” Constitution be damned! The next hurdles for the PAC are to get 891,589 valid signatures and to have the Florida Supreme Court OK the ballot language. What could hobble them out of the gate is that the window is rapidly closing to collect campaign contributions, capped at $3K apiece as of this Thursday. Petition drives are seven- and eight-figure enterprises, so DraftKings and FanDuel may run out of money sooner than signatories.

Same to you, fella; Mega-Jottings

We were stumped for a lead item until we got this snap from our Atlantic City bureau. One has to puzzle at Borgata‘s cretinous idea of a welcome, particularly its implicit slap at women. Did property President Melonie Johnson sign off on this affront?

Next door in Pennsylvania, terrestrial casinos are still having a difficult time catching up to the palmy days of 2019, being 2.5% behind last month for a gross of $278.5 million. Surely what we’re seeing is a saturated market, exacerbated by a string of new-casino openings that has not yet played out. Parx Casino continued to be untroubled, up 5% to $56 million. As for the other Philadelphia-area casinos, Philadelphia Live‘s tight-fisted marketing habits may be catching up with it. It slipped incrementally behind Rivers Philadelphia (still -33%), which came in $300K ahead of Live’s $19 million. Valley Forge Resort suffered a bit, down 10% to $11 million and Harrah’s Philadelphia suffered a lot, sliding 21.5% to $16.5 million. Cordish Gaming won $8.5 million at Live Pittsburgh, while competitors Rivers Pittsburgh ($28 million, -14%) and The Meadows ($16.5 million, -23%) felt the pinch. Rivers Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is upping its game with a $60 million hotel.

Aside from Parx, the only revenue-positive casino in the state was Mount Airy, up 8.5% to $17.5 million. Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs was down 12% to $18 million and Wind Creek Bethlehem won $36.5 million, a -16.5% slippage. Presque Isle Downs dropped 16% to $10 million, Hollywood Penn National made $20 million, off 8% and Lady Luck Nemacolin tumbled 29% to $2 million.

Las Vegas heats up; Zombies overrun Atlantic City

In a benchmark development, three of the four major Las Vegas Strip operators posted higher midweek rates for the July 4-July 10 period than in 2019. Caesars Entertainment was flat, probably due to its sheer proliferation of hotel rooms. MGM Resorts International inched up 2%, Wynncore was +22% and Venelazzo rose 9%. And we’re not even into convention season yet. Weekend rates tended to be stellar: MGM leapt 41%, Caesars hopped 19%, Wynn Resorts vaulted 54% and Las Vegas Sands was up 28%. Obviously the holiday weekend is a big contributor to this phenomenon but who would have thought the Strip would be outperforming 2019 so soon?

Perhaps visitors got a sneak peek at WalletHub‘s finding that Nevada is the third-most-fun state in our great country. It’s tops (like, duh) in access to casino and fourth in arts, entertainment and recreational venues. Surprisingly, the Silver State is 15th in access per capita to amusement parks and 17th in performing-arts theaters (all those casino showrooms, you know … although Las Vegas boasts a remarkably vigorous theatre scene). We could do better in access to national parks, ranking only 24th. Only California and Florida outdid Nevada (we blame Disney), while Mississippi and West Virginia are the least-fun places to be. Nevada has the fifth-fewest marinas per capita but, with the way Lake Mead is shrinking, can you blame us?

Big Trouble in Little China; The thieving nun

Carrying a 20-year-long grudge, businessman Marshall Hao is suing Las Vegas Sands for $12 billion, claiming it wronged him when it jilted his Asian American Entertainment Corp. in favor of a (short-lived) partnership with Galaxy Entertainment to get into Macao. Although he’s not alleging such, political reasons may have been involved. Hao is a citizen of Taiwan, while Galaxy is firmly China-rooted. He wants 70% of Sands’ operating profits from the 2004-2022 period. The trial will be gaveled into session on June 16. Alas, we no longer have the addled, combative testimony of Sheldon Adelson to anticipate. In the past Sands has stated, “Using a different lawyer every time, AAEC has repeatedly filed lawsuits trying to take credit for that which they didn’t do.” However, the company has a history of promiscuity with regards to its Macanese partners. A $70 million court award to Richard Suen for an unpaid “success fee” still hangs over Sands’ head and the company quietly settled with three local Chinese businessmen for a similar favor.

The timing of the trial is unfortunate for Sands, with reexamination of casino concessions due next year. Whatever dirty laundry is aired is unlikely to redound to LVS’ benefit. Official company rhetoric has even taken a turn for the pessimistic. One of the key points on which the case is sure to hinge is Hao’s contention that the joint proposal submitted by Sands and Galaxy was identical to one already drafted with AAEC. In light of the present imbroglio, Sands will surely line up behind Sociedade de Jogos de Macau in petitioning City Hall to push concession reviews back to 2023. SJM CEO Ambrose So gave the rather weak excuse that the concessions shouldn’t be under consideration while they’re performing poorly financially, thanks to Covid-19 (as though they didn’t have a lengthy track record already). More to the point, he said it would be unfair to some of the concession holders if current travel restrictions prevent them from coming to Macao to testify. Former lawmaker and present casino executive Melinda Chan agreed, doubting that the government could wrap up the process in a year. In any event, Sands is sure to want whatever extension it can get.

Don’t make mine Manhattan

That’s the word from key legislators, who have made it clear that Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) would be putting a casino in Manhattan over their dead bodies. “I believe it would be seriously detrimental to the residential and commercial quality of Manhattan,” said Assemblyman Richard Gottfried. Cuomo’s idea of compromise was to allow Manhattanites to hold their nose and choose where on the island a megaresort would go. Sort of a pick-your-poison deal. But lawmakers said that was spinach and to hell with it. “This got really close. It fell apart in the wee hours of the morning,” a source told the New York Post.

Meanwhile, executives for the three interested companies—Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts and Bally’s Corp.—are waiting until January, when solons may revisit the issue. For Sands, which essentially builds convention centers with ‘big barn’ casinos tacked on, a Manhattan site may be crucial. As for Cuomo, he has sugarplum fairies bearing $1.5 million in licensing fees dancing in his head. In theory, it should be a five-way race for a three full-spectrum casinos but everyone and their brother expects MGM Empire State in Yonkers and Resorts World New York in Queens to be juiced into the first two licenses, leaving Sands and its ilk squabbling over the last one.

Caesars, MGM lead Vegas recovery; Florida compact dicey

Let’s start with some good news. JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff laid out a series of benchmarks for a Las Vegas comeback across the second half of 2021 (one year earlier than anticipated). “We think these data points are indicative of the strong and relatively quick inflection of demand on the LV Strip, with particular importance for group/convention business into the fall,” he wrote. While this rising tide should lift all boats, Greff picked MGM Resorts International and Caesars Entertainment to be particular beneficiaries, with Station Casinos and Boyd Gaming getting a lift off the back end.

For starters, airlines are coming back in a big way. Airlift capacity into Las Vegas is expected to be at 93% of 2019 levels by June and 97% by July, compared to a national average of 85% and 89% for those same months. And in September, when convention season starts in earnest, airlift is expected to be above 2019 levels. As for room rates, 3Q21 prices still lag 2018 by 8% but 6% higher on weekends. Caesars’ occupancy has already risen to 84% in March from on 72% in February and can be expected to keep moving the needle, with weekends sold out “for the foreseeable future.” As payrolls grow in other industries, discretionary income increases and unemployment continues to drop, the benefits trickle down to Boyd and Station.

Casinos collapse in Texas, advance elsewhere

All Sheldon Adelson‘s horses and all Sheldon Adelson’s men couldn’t put Texas megaresorts together. Or, as they said in Brooklyn (in a non-gaming context), wait ’til next year. Two separate bills to authorize everything from full-service casinos to poker rooms died in committee without even getting so much as a vote. The late Adelson put all his eggs in the Texas GOP basket and the party failed to show much gratitude, as the dismal performance of gaming legislation evinces. At least the lower house’s version of the bill got a hearing. No such luck in the state Senate. Even had the Lege gotten its act together, the casino push was an uphill slog, facing an increasingly likely veto from Gov. Greg Abbott (R), never mind the need to obtain a two-thirds supermajority at the 2022 ballot box, had Abbott reversed field. Polling showed majority approval but fell well short of 66%.

Despite the Lege’s truly dismal performance, Las Vegas Sands‘ man in Austin, Andy Abboud, remained optimistic, blowing sunshine up solons’ asses. “We have said from the beginning that we’re committed to Texas for the long haul. We have made great strides this session and have enjoyed meeting with lawmakers about our vision for destination resorts and answering all the questions they have.” Given the short shrift he got from lawmakers, we’re not so sure about Abboud making any “great strides,” and the deployment of literally scores of lobbyists, led by Karen Rove, yielded so little progress that it has to be chalked up as a giant flop. Losers other than Sands included Golden Nugget owner Tilman Fertitta and several Native American tribes who would have qualified for Class III casinos. It’s difficult to scavenge much upside from this result and Abboud might want to think about making some friends on the Democratic side of the aisle. The Texas GOP is so casino-averse that Abboud was ultimately spitting into the wind.

Illinois’ surprise; Scandal at Churchill Downs; Palms complications

Gambling revenue of $108 million out of Illinois last month looks pallid at first glance. But consider this: It was only 6% off April 2019’s pace, when casinos were at full capacity and last month they did it at 50% capacity. So the demand is the definitely manifesting. One of the stars of the market was Grand Victoria (pictured), up 1% to $13.5 million. Of course the marquee performer was Rivers Casino Des Plaines, grossing $41 million for a 7.5% lift. Nearby rivals Empress Joliet and Harrah’s Joliet were down 16% and 17% respectively, grossing $7.5 million and $12.5 million. Hollywood Aurora slipped 9.5% to $8.5 million. Mid-state, the tailspin continues for Casino Rock Island, spiraling -37.5% to a meager $3.5 million. Par-A-Dice, meanwhile, dipped 6% to $6 million. In the St. Louis area, Argosy Belle slipped 20% to $3 million while DraftKings Casino Queen was down 23% to $6.5 million. Harrah’s Metropolis was steady as she goes at $6 million.

Sports betting continues to lag casino reporting by a full month, so we are only now getting the March numbers. Handle was $633.5 million, from which $50 million in revenue was derived, including a tax haul of $6.5 million. Noteworthily, Illinois was just a few whiskers behind Nevada ($641 million handle). Silver State, look to thy laurels! The prohibition of bets on University of Illinois and Loyola College may have put a damper on March Madness action ($177 million), with professional basketball engendering $366 million in wagers. “March Madness helped deliver a huge month for Illinois, but March is essentially a ‘last hurrah’ for the state’s rapid growth,” warned PlayUSA analyst Joe Boozell. “Illinois will still be one of the largest U.S. markets because of the population of the state, but it will be difficult to maintain its current status as the U.S. No. 3, much less catch Nevada. No matter how appealing a market, there isn’t any easy way to overcome the inconvenience of in-person registration.”

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