Culinary vs. Wynn; Illinois sports betting explodes

The revenue picture across America is a mixture of Bad and Worse. Louisiana casinos have been ordered to restrict capacity to 50% (down from 75%) and Covid-19‘s resurgence is scaring people away, from all appearances, anywhere you look. Pelican State revenues tumbled 25% to $152 million, with New Orleans toppling 35.5%, Lake Charles down 22%, Shreveport/Bossier City slumping 25% and Baton Rouge off 16%. In the latter, orphaned Belle of Baton Rouge plunged 44% to $1 million, as Casino Rouge slipped 15.5% to $4 million and L’Auberge Baton Rouge was down 12% to $11 million. In New Orleans, the eponymous Harrah’s resort had a calamitous month, falling 44% to $15 million. Scarcely better were Treasure Chest (-34%, $5.5 million) and Amelia Belle (-33%, $2 million). Meager revenues were also to be had at Boomtown New Orleans (-24%, $7 million) and Fair Grounds racino (-28%, $3 million).

No doubt thanks to its Texas-derived business, Lake Charles did better, by far the highest-grossing jurisdiction in the state. Isle Grand Palais remains hors de combat (-100%) but L’Auberge Lake Charles was off only 8.5%, grossing $23.5 million, while Golden Nugget slipped 14.5% to $22.5 million. Delta Downs grossed $11.5 million, -22%, and Boyd Gaming‘s rural Evangeline Downs took in $5 million, -20%. (It was not a good month for Boyd.) As for Shreveport/Bossier City, Penn National Gaming posted the only revenue-positive result in the state, as Margaritaville defied gravity by 8%, grossing a market-leading $14 million. Keeping pace was Horseshoe Bossier City, down 26% to $12 million. Bally is having a hard time getting a handle on Eldorado Shreveport, plummeting 37% to $5.5 million, while Boyd nearly got blanked at Sam’s Town, spiraling down 45% to $3.5 million. Boomtown Bossier shed 17.5% to $3 million and Harrah’s Louisiana Downs slid 19.5% to $3 million. As for Caesars Entertainment‘s sale of Belle of Baton Rouge to CQ Holdings, the price has not been released which, in this case, probably means it was too embarrassing to disclose. We’re surprised anybody wanted that rattletrap for anything other than its license, as they’re going to have to start from scratch—at least if Louisiana regulators have any say in the matter.

Another bit of good news for Penn: Its Plainridge Park slots outperformed the market average for Massachusetts. Plainridge did $211 win/slot/day compared to MGM Springfield‘s $164 win/slot/day and Encore Boston Harbor‘s pallid $112.

December will be a month to forget for Pennsylvania casinos, closed by gubernatorial order, but November wasn’t so hot either. Revenues slumped 31% with no bright spots. Live Pittsburgh debuted with $2 million, while regional competitors Rivers Pittsburgh ($18 million, -43%) and The Meadows ($11.5 million, -40%) struggled. In the Philadelphia area, SugarHouse grossed $12 million before being closed (-52%), Harrah’s Philadelphia slipped 24.5% to $16 million, Parx Casino mustered a state-leading $40.5 million (-19%) whilst Valley Forge Casino Resort slid 32.5% to $8 million. (Boyd just threw it a lifeline in the form of B Connected status.) Outstate, Mohegan Sun Pocono Downs fell 38% to $11.5 million, Wind Creek Bethlehem tumbled 32% to a still-robust $27 million, Presque Isle Downs plunged 39.5% to $6 million, Mount Airy managed only an 8.5% decline ($13.5 million), Hollywood Penn National slipped 26% to $14 million and Lady Luck Nemacolin dove 26% to $1.5 million. All of the publicly traded casinos are underperforming JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff‘s cautious 4Q20 projections, which gives you some idea of the immensity of the problem.

Sports betting was a bright spot, with revenues of $37.5 million on $492 million in handle. The take would have been $48.5 million were it not for heavy promotional spending. Online, Valley Forge/FanDuel dominated the market with 41% of net revenue, followed distantly by The Meadows/DraftKings (19%) and BetRivers (11%). Barstool Sports is catching up with the pack quickly, with 10% of net revenue ($4 million, thanks to a sharp reduction in promotions). Despite fewer weekend days, i-gaming matched October’s tally of $60 million. BetRivers’ $16.5 million was tops, then DraftKings ($11.5 million) and Valley Forge ($10.5 million). Online slots dominated play (66%) and table games represented 30% of action.

Said analyst Dustin Gouker, “a lack of NBA, NHL, and college basketball games, along with the struggles of Penn State, an Eagles bye week, and a Steelers game postponed to December, conspired to slow bettors in November.” Handle grew 36% year/year but fell short of October’s $526 million high-water mark. “November’s results show that each state is different in what are unprecedented times, and the relatively high win rate by sportsbooks may have dissuaded some bettors,” added PlayUSA.com analyst Valerie Cross. Gouker resumed, “The Barstool app has been successful in shaking up the market, becoming the first online operator to legitimately challenge the stranglehold that FanDuel and DraftKings have had on Pennsylvania’s market.” As strong as the Keystone State is, New Jersey remains the big man on campus, with $931 million in handle last month.

In Illinois we frankly don’t want to know how bad the casino-gaming numbers were, except for sports betting, which was robust: $367 million in handle. (Face it, with casinos and slot routes closed, it’s the only game in town.) That flowed through to $37 million in revenue for operators. BetRivers grossed $13 million, followed by DraftKings (#1 in handle) with $11.5 million and Par-A-Dice/FanDuel with $11 million. “Illinois has long been an intriguing market, but nobody expected this kind of start,” said Joe Boozell, analyst for PlayUSA. “The market is still nowhere near maturity and yet it may still challenge Pennsylvania and Nevada in the coming months. We projected the market to one day take in $10 billion in bets annually, and while that is still likely a few years away, it could come quicker than anyone dreamed, too.” Of DraftKings’ ascendancy, Boozell added, “BetRivers has really done well in getting a head start on DraftKings and FanDuel, but holding off the two largest sportsbooks operators in the country is all but  impossible.”

“In every regulated market, when local teams do well a corresponding uptick in betting is expected, so it’s not a surprise to see that in Illinois,” Welman said. “That said, the weeks since October haven’t been as kind for the [Chicago] Bears. But that early interest has been baked in, so it shouldn’t get in the way of overall market growth.”

Congratulations on Rep. Deb Haaland (D) on being named Secretary of the Interior in the Biden administration. Haaland is the first Native American to be nominated to the post, something that’s long overdue. Tribes got a mixed bag from the Trump regime, although not the raw deal they received when George W. Bush was calling the shots. Haaland’s appointment is a big step in the right direction.