Dream on (really); Golden gets downgrade

Dream on the south Las Vegas Strip is looking more like reality, Shopoff Real Estate Investments having purchased the requisite 5.25 acres. The exact location will be at the Strip at Russell Road, just south of Mandalay Bay. Calling the location “iconic,” William Shopoff immediately contradicted himself, remarking that the area “has historically been a little bit ignored.” He stressed the relative proximity to the stadium, saying, “that whole area is going to be activated be the stadium and all of the events that will take place there. To be a potential anchor to the stadium made this a really interesting dynamic for us.” The start of construction is still almost a year away, with completion envisioned for 2023.

While proximity to the Las Vegas Raiders will presumably drive lots of foot traffic, Shopoff & Co. haven’t squared that yet with their 450-suite “dynamic new boutique hotel” model. Also, the initial announcement of Dream called for a casino but that aspect of the project is somewhere in the hazy yon at this point.

* This just in … the stock market vaulted 1,200 points today as investors pinned their hopes on a Federal Reserve bailout, perhaps in the form of lower interest rates. We’ll have news on the performance of the gaming group as we get it. “The only way to get a positive market reaction is to deliver more than expected,” remarked Bank Policy Institute Chief Economist Bill Nelson. Tourism stocks fell, tech and biotech ones gained. The rally comes against a continued backdrop of uncertainty of how much the current health crisis will impinge upon normal economic activity. As CMC Markets Chief Analyst Michael Hewson said, “For all the talk of lower rates the one thing a rate cut can’t do is get people back to work and supply chains back running again.” Tell that to all the people who can’t get visas to Macao.

* Speaking of Wall Street, after boosting Churchill Downs this weekend, JP Morgan analyst Daniel Politzer took Golden Entertainment down a peg, rating it “Neutral.” He cited disruption at The Strat and “more downside risk than upside potential in the stock right now.” Overexposure to Southern Nevada (90% of operations) and high leverage were also cited as disincentives. He also hinted at “a potential slowdown in tourism,” while noting “the LV Strip has a strong lineup of large events/trade show rotations in 2020,” from which GDEN could certainly benefit. One thing we would note in Golden’s favor is that it is poised to benefit from population growth in the southwestern Las Vegas Valley. As Station Casinos continues to manifest a weak trigger finger on Durango Station, Golden’s network of taverns, restaurants and slot routes are enviably poised to soak up locals-casino action.

* Kansas is one big step closer to legalizing sports betting, after the state Senate passed it 23-15 in six contentious hours of debate. Republicans projected $600 million in handle while Democrats balked at a tax rate so low the Sunflower State would only take home $3 million. “At the end of the day, this has to be profitable to the state,” protested state Sen. Tom Holland (D) while GOP counterpart Jeff Longbine evangelized for the bill, saying, “It certainly has put us in a position where we can establish sports gaming in Kansas and pull wagers from the black market—offshore, unregulated, untaxed market—bringing Kansas under a regulated state market.” Holland fought back with amendments to bring sports betting under the remit of the Kansas Lottery, which owns the casinos, saying, “We own the success. We own the failure. And my point to the body is, if we’re going to get into this business, it needs to be financially worth it for the state.” Fellow senators turned a deaf ear to his plea.

Sports betting would be the province of Kansas’ four casinos, taxed at 7.5% of retail profits (not gross revenue, mind you) and 10% online. Such state proceeds as are realized would be divided between horseracing subsidies (what else?) and fighting white-collar crime. A tiny trickle of taxes would also go to combatting gambling addiction. (Lawmakers will be able to say they did something.) At least the problem-gambling money will now be protected by statute from being pillaged for other state uses. Less well-received was an amendment to revive horse racing at Woodlands, one of Phil Ruffin‘s pet projects. Since the move would have involved giving the track’s slot machines a vastly preferential tax rate, it was ixnayed by a one-vote margin.

The bill now goes to the House, where state Rep. John Barker (R) wants to see wide-open sports betting. Or, as he put it, You could be able to go down and buy a lottery ticket and bet on the K-State-KU game, hopefully buy a loaf of bread and 10 gallons of gas or whatever and go home.” Whether the House lifts Senate-imposed crimps on online-lottery ticket sales remains to be seen. So far this has been a big win for the casinos, which have gotten everything they could have imagined.

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