
An anonymous British financier will have to wait another 24 hours to find out if his $5 million bet on Donald Trump comes up a winner. He’ll pocket $15 million from Curaçao bookies if it does. The flutter, made after consultation with Trump insiders (who had better crystal balls than Biden ones) is said to be the largest political bet ever made. What’s more, there was heavy movement toward Trump (75% of bets at Ladbrokes) in the waning days of the presidential campaign. Paddy Power did even more: 93% pro-Trump bets. Ladbrokes’ Jessica O’Reilly said, prior to the vote, “[Joe] Biden looks home and hosed according to the bookies and pollsters, but even at the eleventh-hour punters are continuing to back Trump at the odds on offer.” Bets on Biden wouldn’t yield much if he won: $1,986,903 on a $1.3 million wager, so the ‘red wave’ makes sense. GVC‘s supremo of political betting, Matthew Shaddick said, “It is twice as big as 2016, easily making it the biggest political event ever.”
We spoke recently with BetMGM Vice President of Trading Jason Scott and he thinks the U.S. gaming industry is missing out on something huge: “I’d love to see the first [state] to allow betting on elections. The 2016 U.S. presidential election was the largest betting event in the world, ever, and it will get doubled next week by the 2020 election … Those like us that are doing the right thing, betting in a regulated market, in a way we’re disadvantaged, so I’d love to see elections get regulated.”

I don’t understand your contention that Nate Silver had a “dismal” night, he predicted that Biden would win, and he said it was a very fine line between a landslide and a narrow victory… When all the results are tallied, Biden will win the popular vote by a margin very close to the final National polls, there are millions of uncounted votes from states like New York and California. We live in a closely divided polarized country, and just a few states control the outcomes, as predicted by Silver and other stat guru’s, it came down to Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania…
Nate Silver is a poll aggregator, he takes in data from myriad sources… The polls were exactly right in Georgia and Pennsylvania, both showed essentially tied races right before the election, as did North Carolina. The margins were off in Michigan and Wisconsin, but the winner was predicted by the polls, there is some merit to the theory that some Trump voters just will not tell the truth to pollsters. Lets hope that there is a smooth transition, lets hope that there is no violence…