G2E bargain at Station; analysts split on Sands

If you’re looking for an affordable room in Las Vegas during Global Gaming Expo, try Expedia‘s German site (“.de”). A European-based S&G source reports finding rooms at Boulder Station going for €57 and Fiesta Rancho asking €59 — or $79 and $82, respectively. Rooms at that house of horrors, Circus Circus, are bringing owner MGM Resorts International €124 (or $172), thanks to the clown palace’s greater proximity to the Sands Expo Center Las Vegas Convention Center. It certainly behooves Station Casinos to cultivate a wallet-friendly reputation: Since Las Vegas is deemed the major U.S. city that will be last to exit the Great Recession, by definition Station would be the last casino company to recover.

Motley Fool columnists take dramatically different perspectives on the future of Las Vegas Sands, depending on what metrics they employ. Anand Chokkavelu rated Sands a “terrible” stock last July and is somewhat chastened by the share price’s 96% ramp up since then — superior to companies with stronger fundamentals. I say “somewhat” because he has “no confidence this casino will ever stop loading up on debt and growing for growth’s sake.” Hard to argue with that. CEO Sheldon Adelson doesn’t have a history of learning from his mistakes and some of this recent proposals to grow the company — five $2 billion casinos in Florida, a comparable expansion into Texas — look borderline loony. Had Pennsylvania not thrown Adelson a lifeline in the form of table games, he’d probably be shopping around Sands Bethlehem even as we speak.

Sands’ emphasis on quality hotel-room product is yielding results in Macao, though, where gains by rival Melco Crown Entertainment properties are being offset by increased hotel stays at Adelson’s properties, which are enjoying an ADR boost. Both Altira Macau and City of Dreams are losing hotel business to Adelson, described as piggybacking on the latter’s success.

Adelson’s company also leads the gaming group in terms of “EVA momentum” (increasing profit percentage), trailed by Wynn Resorts. Fool columnist Dan Dzombak notes that this is a recent phenomenon for the gaming sector and there’s still much room for improvement overall. Back in Macao, Stanley Ho continues to bedevil Adelson, announcing 3Q10 results that include a sixfold increase in net profit, 100% growth in VIP-derived revenues and 69% revenue growth overall, to $1.8 billion (like a Vegas Strip unto itself). Adelson, nettled by unflattering comparisons of market share, maintains that cash flow is the true metric of success. Sands China‘s was $335 million against Sociedade de Jogos de Macau‘s $152 million. Score a big win for Sheldon, then.