Harrah’s $1.5B Bratislava bet; Marina Bay Sands booms; Falcons swoop upon Hilton, etc.

With almost no exception other than The Newspaper That Shall Remain Nameless, a $1.85 billion Metropolis project headed up by Harrah’s Entertainment has flown completely under the radar of the U.S. media ever since its announcement last October. Oh, some European bloggers took note of the megaresort, which will sit astride a highway (a daring design touch that no U.S. casino will ever achieve). But the mainstream media is starting to pick up on the story, which will grow legs if Harrah’s continues to be coy about the size of its monetary commitment to Metropolis.

While there’s definitely heft to the argument that, given the shriveled U.S. casino market, it makes sense to go where the money is (i.e., Eastern Europe), that point might resonate more convincingly were it not coming from a company that’s been poor-mouthing its creditors no end. Or, as Stern Agee bond analyst David Hargreaves put it, “HET’s post-LBO history has been a string of false promises … investors bought guarantees only to be smothered with second liens only to be smothered [again] with first liens … If our thesis bears out, we expect that investors will be asked to make further concessions in classic ‘gun-to-our-heads’ fashion.”

But somehow Harrah’s had enough “pin money” stashed away to sink into Metropolis. Interesting. The potential for triangulating the Vienna, Budapest and Bratislava markets spells “major opportunity.” Harrah’s & Co. are expecting 100 euros per player per day ($122) in casino revenue. And, in terms of investment, they’re pikers compared to the Hard Rock (aka Seminole Tribe) and its “EuroVegas” outside Budapest. That’s a $6.1 billion project … an insane outlay, even bigger than the $5.7 billion Las Vegas Sands spent in Singapore. At least the Harrah’s project looks like it’s got a good chance of penciling out but “EuroVegas” will probably be found in the recipe file under “Disaster.”

As for Sands, its public pronouncements continue to be head-scratchers, such as the latest set of Marina Bay Sands projections from the $2 Million Man, LVS prexy Michael A, Leven. Although Marina Bay is producing the highest per-slot revenue of any Sands property anywhere (yes, including Macao), Leven had the cheek to call the results “somewhat disappointing.” As for the glitch-plagued opening, $2 Million Man sayeth, “The amount of complaints we’re getting are pretty typical of any opening.” Speak for yourself, Sands. The rolling fustercluck that is a Sands opening is not “typical” of, say, Wynn Resorts nor as good as the debut of rival Resorts World Sentosa.

To his credit, Leven tips his hat to Genting, calling Resorts World “very formidable” and better schooled in the mass-market segment. The Sands megaresort is on pace for a 10% ROI in its first seven months of operation but Leven thinks even that is a lowball figure. Perhaps that’s because the $71 entrance fee has proven no deterrent to Singaporean gamblers. If anything, it makes them want to stay and play longer in order to justify the investment. If that keeps up, will U.S. casinos begin to contemplate casino-admission fees? Hey, who expected “resort fees” 10 years ago?

Sands’ Macao casinos aren’t getting the job done, judging by their market share. With only 20% of the Macanese market, CEO Sheldon Adelson again finds Steve Wynn‘s Macao properties nipping at his heels. Stanley Ho is way out in front, of course, with 32% and Melco Crown Entertainment is vying for parity with Wynn, at 14%. MGM Mirage continues to beat its head against the wall, stuck in last place with a 7% it has to split with Pansy Ho. For a company that took so many risks to get into Macao, its $1.2 billion MGM Grand Macau has never given Wynn Resorts a run for its money even when the companies each had but one casino apiece. A reliance upon mass-market play at MGM (or a dearth of VIP action, if you prefer) seems to be the root of the problem.

Finally … a reason to visit the Atlantic City Hilton. Or are the falcons drawn by the carrion that is Colony Capital and its casino portfolio? If the little falcons don’t warm the cockles of your heart, the bird-loving Hilton employees surely will.