It’s lonely in Massachusetts; A dose of realism

While the distribution of vaccines may look like a panacea for the economy, Terry Monroe, founder of American Business Brokers & Advisors begs to differ, predicting that it will take into March just to immunize healthcare workers and other high-priority individuals. (Michael Beschloss reported that White House staffers were stepping all over each other to get vaccinated. Totally predictable.) “That would leave well over  200 million Americans still in need of the vaccine as we head into spring,” writes Monroe. The stock market continues to levitate above 30,000, as Wall Street whistles past the graveyard. But for small business (including hole-in-the-wall casinos) it may be a different story. Says Monroe, “Outside of government, companies with less than $7 million in sales and fewer than 500 employees are widely considered small businesses by the U.S. Small Business Administration. And the expectation for small businesses to return to what we considered normal pre-pandemic is not going happen anytime soon.”

This is in part due to the restriction and sometimes (17%) outright closure of restaurants across the country. Continues Monroe, “In November 2020, the national unemployment level of the United States stood at about 10.74 million unemployed persons, which equates to a little over 10%. However, this number only tracks the number of people who are unemployed. It doesn’t record the people who are not drawing unemployment benefits and are out of work. So, in reality the number is larger than the 10.74 million. With businesses closing and laying people off, no jobs for people to replace what they lost, and no income for the owners of the businesses, vaccine or no vaccine there is not going to be anyone working to turn the economy around. It will take most of 2021 to make the vaccine available to the millions of people who will want it, but many of the unemployed still will have no work to go to after they get the vaccine and the economy continues to sit.”

The author takes issue with the popular contention that vaccine = economic surge. Habits have changed during the pandemic, Monroe says, and with fewer entertainment and dining options (sound familiar?), why go out? And why get dressed up when you have no place to go. (Adios, clothing sales.) Plus “states keep changing the rules”—see above—engendering volatility in the marketplace. “It is obvious that small businesses are not going to return to pre-pandemic levels with so many businesses closed in such a short time period.” In other word, normality will not return until 2022, which squares with most of what we’ve been reading about the casino biz.

Derek Stevens is betting that Gov. Steve Sisolak‘s capacity restrictions will have eased by Feb. 7. What’s so important about that date? The Super Bowl, of course! “With the biggest game in sports right around the corner, we are gearing up for an epic takeover in Downtown,” Stevens was quoted as saying. “No matter what team you’re rooting for on February 7, one thing is for sure: you’re going to have the time of your life.” Assuming a best-case scenario, the Super Bowl will be the acid test of the drawing power of Stevens’ two crucial venues, Stadium Swim (with five different admission packages, all pretty elite) and the epic sports book, with its four game-viewing areas. Good luck, Derek. If anybody can pull this off it’s him.

Time for our Bad Beat of the Week. This one goes to a bettor who’s $40,000 lighter in the wallet after a series of wing-and-a-prayer laterals by the Cleveland Browns ended in a safety, sealing a 47-42 win by the Baltimore Ravens. There went the three-point spread, at least for Cleveland fans. The big loser had placed an additional bet for the Browns to cover 4.5 points. Whoops. The safety left him a half-point short. Easy come, uneasily go.

In a totally counterintuitive development, the population of Las Vegas has actually been growing during the Covid-19 pandemic. For every person who has moved away from Sin City, 1.3 have relocated to the area, putting us #9 for growth. Other casino-enabled cities in the top 10 are Phoenix (#2) and Tampa (#4). Casino-less Austin leads everybody, in case you’re curious. Those moving into Vegas will find four new attractions from entrepreneur Ryan Doherty, who is investing heavily in Downtown’s Fremont East. His headline offering is, er, Discopussy. Its name is justified by a giant, animatronic octopus whose tendrils entwine above the dance floor. Then there’s Lucky Day, a tequila bar “with a canopy of 15,000 custom handmade programmable LED lights in all shapes and sizes” and Oddwood, a cocktail bar with a “digital maple tree.” (Doherty is big into overhead décor.) Finally there’s Museum Fiasco “an assault on the senses, offering art you can feel, curated to within an inch of its life.” Sounds like a must-see destination.

Speaking of such things, the Mob Museum has made two remarkable acquisitions. One is a document from March 19, 1947 transferring the Flamingo to Bugsy Siegel and expelling Billy Wilkerson. “This document bolsters the true story that Wilkerson actually conceived and started building the Flamingo.” So does a check signed by Wilkerson to pay for the original 33 acres on which the Flamingo would be built, dated March 5, 1945. It made Margaret Folsom $9,500 richer—later $84,000 when Wilkerson finished paying for the parcel. Try buying Strip acreage for those prices today. And hurry to see the artifacts: They’re only on display through Jan. 10.

Jottings: Resorts World New York is holding a series of thank-you events for frontline workers, including a coat drive, fundraiser, breast-cancer donations and several food drives. Thank you, Genting … Miss the old El Cortez floral carpet? It’s not gone, just in storage and soon you will be able to buy pieces of it, if you’re so inclined … Culinary Union members at Wynncore could join 1,000 of their Encore Boston Harbor fellows on the breadline. Wynn Resorts has been trying a more-workers/fewer-hours regime. The Culinary wants more hours. Wynn is threatening layoffs if this continues.