Lies, damned lies & Illinois; Casino overboard!

Way to go, Joe Canfora! The Merit Casino CEO shows how impressive a statistic can sound when taken out of context. By stating “there are more slot machines per 100,000 people in Iowa than there are in Illinois,” Canfora craftily implies that the Land of Lincoln is somehow underserved. Let’s look at other numbers, shall we?

In August, the putatively casino-famished Illinois grossed $137 million while Iowa revenues were $117.5 million. One might add that both Iowa’s casino regulators, its operators, and Gov. Terry Branstad (R, right) have all been firmly of the opinion that the state is saturated and doesn’t need more gambling positions, a position firmly rooted in the bottom line. Coming off a flat 2010, Iowa casinos are revenue-positive for 2011 mostly because of recently opened Grand Falls Casino Resort, up near the South Dakota border. Subtract the Grand Falls Effect and 2011 has been a tale of four flat months, two positive ones and two revenue-negative ones. So no, Mr. Canfora, more slot machines does not automatically equal more revenue, although I’m sure some impressionable simpleton is parroting your specious talking point even as I type these words.

(Interestingly, Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn [D] is revamping the membership of his state’s gaming commission, to emphasize financial oversight. By contrast, when fiscal insight was most needed in Nevada’s casino industry, the Jim Gibbons administration mindlessly appointed a succession of lawyers.)

Speaking of Iowa, the supposedly detail-oriented execs of Caesars Entertainment might want to stage a managerial intervention at Harrah’s Council Bluffs (left). In a 20-month stretch, it only posted one revenue-positive month (last December). Even compared to a gloomy 2010, the riverboat has really gotten walloped in June-August 2011: down nearly 20% for three months running. It appears to be bleeding market share to Ameristar Casinos‘ rival vessel, up in 10 of 11 months, through August. Year to date, Ameristar Council Bluffs is crushing its Harrah’s counterpart, $113 million to $47.5 million. The former’s larger gaming inventory (1,725 positions vs. 1,150) accounts for some of that disparity — but not to the extent of a 2.4X larger gross! Either Harrah’s CB is the world’s unluckiest casino or local management has screwed up mightily.

Thanks to its Horseshoe-branded racino, Caesars still has the largest market share in Iowa by a comfortable margin. However, the sustained deterioration of Harrah’s Council Bluff’s revenues is symptomatic of Gary Loveman‘s absentee-landlord regime.