Macao economy flounders; Massachusetts bonanza illusory

Macao got a double-barreled blast of bad news. First off, China‘s gross domestic product has slowed to growth rates not seen in almost 30 years. In fact, the R-word (“recession”) was invoked. Slow investment growth was blamed, as was the trade war with the U.S. “China’s economy is grappling with both external and internal headwinds,” economics researcher Frederic Neumann told Bloomberg. At least the jobless rate remains low, at 5%.

Secondly, passenger traffic into Hong Kong continues to fall. One carrier, Cathay Pacific, was moved to cut earnings forecasts. “Our expectation is that rest of 2019 will remain incredibly challenging for the airline,” said its chief customer and commercial officer, Ronald Lam. “The mainland China market has been hit especially hard. Intense competition together with an increasing reliance on transit passengers over the short term has continued to apply additional pressure on yield.“ The airline is also cracking down on employees who voice support for pro-democracy forces in Hong Kong. “The status quo for Cathay has changed forever after the protests,” airline analyst Shukor Yusof told Bloomberg. “The question now is about their survival. The Chinese will want to send a very clear message.” Message sent.

* One news report implies that outgoing Encore Boston Harbor President Robert DeSalvio was pushed, rather than jumping. It points to successor Brian Gullbrants‘ experience opening original-flavor Encore in 2008. For support it leans on Penn National Gaming President Jay Snowden (not an uninterested party), who says, “At the high end of our database, no question that Encore would like to have those customers. Their slot business I think has not hit what they forecast. They’re spending a lot of money on slot marketing right now.” We’ll bet Penn is too.

As for the dreaded Penn National Effect (overoptimistic revenue forecasts), it appears to have hit Massachusetts. The Boston Globe called last month’s gaming receipts “lackluster.” Added Boston College‘s Richard McGowan, “I would imagine we’ve pretty much plateaued. Basically, this market is not going to grow anymore. If anything, it’s going to shrink.” The one hope he held out was sports betting. Meanwhile, MGM Springfield continues to find out that Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods Resort Casino are stronger forces than it reckoned. “We continue to maintain strong volumes and visitation despite increased competition,” President Michael Mathis (pictured) said defensively, even though the “Big E” expo failed to deliver substantial gambling revenues.

The one company not feeling the Penn National Effect was … Penn. Slot play at Plainridge Park was a robust $308/slot/day. Opined LaSell University academic Paul DeBole, “They’re still cleaning everybody’s clock.”

* We’ve been ambivalent about covering the Mike Postle poker scandal, in part because it’s so damned difficult to explain. Poker players following Postle’s exploits on a live stream were flummoxed by his ability to make the right call an uncanny number of times. It defied normal odds. This not only raised the suspicion of cheating but of an inside job, since Postle played with radio-frequency-identification (RFID) cards at Stones Gambling Hall, the theory being that someone else with knowledge of the cards was relaying untoward information to Postle. Stones has ceased using RFID cards for the time being. Sometimes the old methods are the best.

* In Las Vegas and got a parking ticket? The city will comp your citation in return for a food donation (this only applies to tickets issued October 16-November 16). The cutoff date for donations is Dec. 16, timing partly dictated by the purpose of the initiative, which is to help the indigent over the Christmas holidays. According to CNN, “the non-perishable food items must be of equal or greater value to the ticket fine.” Duly noted. And kudos to the city for a creative solution to two enduring problems.

* Caesars Entertainment has a branded entrance to Allegiant Stadium. The San Manuel Band of Mission Indians will see that and raise it a luxury box and “at least” signage. We still think San Manuel is getting the better end of the deal here.

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