When China gets coronavirus, Macao develops pneumonia. While Wall Street was expecting gaming revenues to dip 2% in January, they fell 11%. Macanese casinos still grossed $2.75 
billion, so it’s not like they were hearing crickets. However, February is shaping up to be just as bad, if not worse, kicking the narrative of strong gambling-revenue recovery in 2020 into a cocked hat. Declines of 30% are being bruited about, according to the New York Times, at least as long as authorities are curbing travel within the mainland. Lunar New Year has been extended through the weekend, not to promote tourism but to keep banks and other businesses closed. Macao has reported seven cases of coronavirus with a watching brief being kept on another 31 potentially affected people. To say that all this is “presenting significant headwinds” to the casino industry earns a prize for understatement.
Las Vegas Sands President Rob Goldstein estimates Macao visitation has dropped 80% (-83% from the mainland), what with the central government issuing no more visas, and access from Taiwan and 
Hong Kong curbed. Goldstein said it would be “foolhardy”, to expect Sands China to emerge unscathed, adding, “There’s no way to hide from the fact that we employ tens of thousands of people in these markets. It’s an expensive business to operate. The same way operating leverage swings in your direction when volumes are good, it swings against you at times like this.” Sands stock is described as trading “modestly” at the moment. There’s no telling what will happens if Fitch Ratings is prophetic: It is projecting a 50% revenue decline for 1Q20 and 25% for 2Q.
Meanwhile, the phrase “worse than SARS” is being bandied about, in a reversal of previous conventional wisdom. Bloomberg reports that tourism capitals around the world are hunkering down for a prolonged siege. (The story is accompanied by a cheery photo of tourists wearing surgical masks outside Venetian Macao.) If you’ve seen the Oscar-nominated documentary American Factory, you already know that the Chinese economy drives the bus worldwide. How much so? China accounted for 163 million tourists in 2018, almost a third of the worldwide total. A SARS-like reprise could cut that number by seven-eighths. “It’s a triple whammy—Chinese travel more, they spend more and they spend more on beauty products,” said Jefferies consumer analyst Stephanie Wissink. “Chinese travelers are the most significant and most important customers for growth in the travel retail industry.”
Lunar New Year saw $150 billion in spending last year. Obviously we aren’t going to see a repetition in 2020. And hopes for a revival of the sluggish Chinese economy are temporarily on hold. “When airlines are cutting flights, that has impact on ports of entry that affects not 
just airports and shops, but surrounding nodes too,” resumed Wissink. “It’s an entire ecosystem that’s being disrupted, with lots of spillover effects.” (Like Hong Kong needed any more problems right now.) Sands CEO Sheldon Adelson deserves a medal for bravery, judging by his account of a recent visit to Macao. “When I walk in there I think I’m going into an operating room. Everybody’s got masks,” he told investors. But maybe there’s a silver lining, at least in Japan‘s failure to open casinos in time for the summer Olympics. Tourism numbers are expected to be “clobbered” by China’s cancellation of package tours. (Chinese dropped $16 billion in Japan last year, a number of which casino barons are surely cognizant.) With the coronavirus scare spreading to Asian destinations popular with Chinese high rollers, one thing is certain: This is going to get worse before it gets better.
* This week is just chock-full of good news for International Game Technology. Nonfeasance by Minomi Gaming got the latter bounced from two West Virginia casinos’ sports books in favor of IGT management. The casinos are owned by Delaware North—Mardi Gras Casino and Wheeling Island Hotel-Casino-Racetrack. Minomi’s stumble potentially cost Delaware North the lucrative Super Bowl weekend.
* Eldorado Resorts‘ absorption of Caesars Entertainment is three big steps closer to fulfillment. Regulators in Louisiana, Pennsylvania and Illinois have approved the deal. No word yet from New Jersey, where Eldorado intends to operate four casinos in Atlantic City. If it wants to take on that much risk why not let it? It’s their money, after all.
* Connecticut state Sen. Cathy Osten (D) is throwing a big bouquet to the Nutmeg State’s gaming tribes with a bill she’s on the verge of introducing. It would give Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods Resorts Casino dibs on both retail and Internet sports betting, 
“entertainment zone facilities” in New Haven, Hartford, and elsewhere, plus a non-destination casino in Bridgeport. (That cry of anguish you hear is MGM Resorts International, steeling itself for a fight.) “They are two of our top employers and top revenue generators in the state,” Osten said of the two tribal megaresorts. Mashantucket Pequot Chairman Rodney Butler is optimistic this time around, saying, “We’re grateful to all the delegations from both sides of the aisle that have thrown their support behind the Connecticut Jobs & Revenue Act recognizing the value of our continued partnership.” Bipartisan support aside, Osten’s bill still has a lot hurdles to clear, as neither the state’s lottery, its OTBs or carpetbagging MGM will take this lying down.
* The D is rolling out “an ode to Canadian sports and culture.” Titled BarCanada, the 
hockey-themed lounge will debut in March. According to Derek Stevens‘ peeps it “will merge modern design, specialty cocktails and an intimate game-day viewing space as part of the hotel’s second-level expansion project.” The Circa Sports book will also be expanded and will incorporate programming from VSIN: The Sports Betting Network. Said Stevens, “As a hockey fan, I know where you watch a game can be just as important as the game itself. We are excited to debut a … space where locals and visitors alike will want to grab a drink, place a bet, and cheer for their favorite teams.” VSIN will move from its current studio space to Circa proper at year’s end.
