Maryland rebounds; Penn wows Wall Street; Trump to play Lucky Dragon

According to Brendan Bussman of Global Market Advisors, “Four of the nation’s most successful casinos are in the South, and all are owned by tribes.” Yes, Harrah’s Cherokee (above), Seminole Hard Rock Hollywood, Seminole Hard Rock Tampa and Wind Creek Casino are profiting hand over fist from the laws of supply and demand, which may be some of the few laws that favor Native Americans. In neighboring states like Kentucky and Georgia, (mostly white) politicians talk a good game about legalizing casinos but are ultimately too tight-assed to do anything about it. Note to solons worried about threatening their state lotteries: Mississippi gaming revenues peaked last year, one of the first in which the state had a lottery. Southern hostility to tribal gaming is harder to fathom. As Bussman writes, “Tribal communities are known for their ability to give back to the communities in which they operate and act as good, strong community stewards. The economic impact multiplies significantly beyond just their immediate gaming revenue generated.”

Wind Creek has offered Alabama a “george” compromise: Class III gambling for the tribe and a lottery for the state. Unfortunately, Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is dithering in typical fashion, letting money slip through the state’s fingers. Don’t expect action until next year at the earliest. In Georgia, the Lege continues to talk big about gaming but fizzle out when push comes to shove. Despite having many forms of gaming, including a busy black-market-slot demimonde, Texas remains staunchly off-limits to casinos or even racinos, once thought the soft underbelly of the Lone Star State. Adds Bussman, “One of the challenges that persists … is a short legislative session, and it is one of four states that meets only every other year. It is difficult to get major issues such as gaming through the legislature without a sustained education campaign to the legislature and the citizens.” The Great White Hope are team owners like Mark Cuban and Tilman Fertitta, who look favorably on sports betting. Could Dixie turned to expanded gambling as a post-Covid economic fix? We’re not betting on it.

“Solid” was JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff‘s verdict on Penn National Gaming‘s 2Q20 results, “reflective of stronger spend per visit levels as well as margin gains across its diverse regional gaming portfolio.” Between reopening and the end of June, Penn properties saw revenues increase 6% and cash flow (reduced operating costs, remember) leap 33%, prompting Greff to exclaim “Impressive stuff.” At the time of the earnings call, only Tropicana Las Vegas and Zia Park in New Mexico were still out of action. Said Penn execs, ““while May and June results may have benefited in part from pent-up demand, we continue to be highly encouraged by revenue and [cash flow] trends in July and early August, despite the continuation of safety protocols, including capacity restrictions and social distancing mandates.” The Barstool Sports launch remains on track, giving Wall Street even more reason to be bullish.

Second-quarter revenue blew through the Street’s consensus $250 million to clock in at $306 million. $131 million of rent credits accrued in the Tropicana sale helped the bottom line too. “On a regional segment basis, the South segment did the best [down 57%], which is where most of the reopened properties were.” Pennsylvania launches Barstool first, already “recording the highest number of podcast downloads in its history in June, making it one of the top 4 largest podcast networks in the country.” Online gambling in the Keystone State has also climbed to 10% of market share. Allowing for long-term casino closures, revenues were mostly picayune, although Penn’s Southern strategy yielded $121.5 million. In the northeast, it scraped together $103 million (-83%), a mere $18 million in the west (-89%) and a not-much-better $36 million (-86.5%) in the Midwest. Still, the Street sees Penn and Boyd Gaming as the best candidates for a turnaround.

Bad news for gaming: Consumers are fleeing the New York City market in search of smaller places to live (lower in population, that is.) Good news for gaming: Las Vegas is the third-most-popular destination for relocation, presumably from California. (Casino-intensive Phoenix rates even higher.)

The Donald Trump campaign really has fallen on evil days. Seeking to court evangelical voters in Las Vegas, it looked around for a venue and settled on … little Lucky Dragon. OK, it’s Ahern Hotel now but still pretty podunk for POTUS. What’s the over/under on whether attendees will A) comply with Nevada‘s mask rules or B) its constraint upon social gatherings to 50 people? The Supreme Court recently upheld the latter and the Trump camp is going to springboard off of Justice Neil Gorsuch‘s dissent, in which he asked, “The world we inhabit today, with a pandemic upon us, poses unusual challenges. But there is no world in which the Constitution permits Nevada to favor Caesars Palace over Calvary Chapel.”

It’s a good question and one for which Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) would, one thinks, be hard-pressed for an answer … save that Caesars Entertainment renders unto Caesar that which is Caesar’s and Calvary Chapel doesn’t. (And in Nevada, Big Gaming carries the freight so it gets to make the rules. We don’t necessarily like it but that’s the realpolitik.) Oh, and don’t expect to see The Donald in person. He’ll address the faithful by video, leaving the heavy lifting to surrogates preacher Paula White and televangelist Jentezen Franklin. If the Lucky Dragon event goes the way of other recent Trump rallies, expect a spike in local Coronavirus numbers.

Happy 58th birthday to my TV wife, Michelle Yeoh. It is for her too-brief appearances that I endure Star Trek: Discovery. (Actually the first season was extremely good but the second went to hell in a handbasket.)