Regarding the punting of casinos from Penghu, the great minds of Wall Street put on their thinking caps and came up with the following, as paraphrased by the Las Vegas Review-Journal: "analysts said the vote could be a viewed as a positive indicator for Macau's gaming market, eliminating a source of competition."
Gee, ya think?
Actually, Union Gaming Group's Bill Lerner adds a dash of sanity, rating the Taiwanese market as "marginal" and raising the hitherto-unasked question: Just what's the likelihood Peking would allow Chinese citizens to start hopping planes and ferries to Taiwan, to fritter away Mainland currency?
Too bad, though, for Navegante Gaming Group founder Larry J. Woolf, who bet heavily on Penghu and lost at the ballot box. Having taken the proactive (or rash, according to one's perspective) step of cobbling together beachfront acreage, Woolf has the unenviable choice of trying to sell it — in which case, he's dealing from a weak hand — or trying to make lemonade by building a non-casino resort. That way, he can at least bide his time until the '12 elections come around.
Even before the wheels started coming off the casino industry in earnest, there were portents that it was reaching a saturation point in the U.S. It was inevitable. New jurisdictions were steadily opening, established ones became thicker with competition and the average American's income hasn't been rising at a level that would keep pace with galloping casino growth.
There's only so much discretionary income to go around and the industry was bound to hit the wall. The current depression merely accelerated and amplified the resultant "Thud!"
One casualty of this collision is Rivers Casino in Pittsburgh, whose slot revenues are running 22% below projections. That's causing Standard & Poor's to hint darkly at default, maybe even bankruptcy. Despite being in a prime market, Rivers Casino is performing seventh among Pennsylvania's nine casinos, which means fifth-place Sands Bethlehem has to be upgraded from "flop" to "mild underachiever."
One can't really blame current Rivers ownership. It inherited the $800 million (!) project after original owner Don Barden ran way over budget, then ran dry. However, it's a good thing the local property-tax assessor is currently undervaluing the Rivers site because Neil Bluhm (who breaks ground in Philadelphia next week) needs those extra $$ far worse than we thought.
