Analysts at JP Morgan like the chances for a Missouri constitutional amendment largely bankrolled by Ameristar Casinos and Pinnacle Entertainment. While Ameristar stands to benefit in tangible ways, JP Morgan focuses on what it could for Pinnacle: a 15% increase in Lumiere Place cash flow and perhaps another $2 per share (at $5.41 as of this moment).
Other takeaways from today's investor note: 1) Lake Charles, La., which Pinnacle dominates, looks good to buck the national trend and keep growing its casino revenue; 2) the heretofore disappointing Lumiere Place is at "an inflection point" in which its Four Seasons hotel starts to become a contributor instead of "a drag on earings"; 3) Pinnacle is holding its ground, at Belterra, better than most of its southern Indiana competitors — Penn National's Argosy Lawrenceburg in particular.
There's still the matter of the $600 million River City project in suburban St. Louis and Pinnacle's stymied Atlantic City megaresort. Pinnacle appears to have let spending get pretty exuberant (only in its $250 million Baton Rouge riverboat casino do budget and market really seem to square up), so it'd premature for CEO Dan Lee to take any victory laps — not that it would be in his nature.
Update: Only in the convoluted logic of the Las Vegas Review-Journal would a constitutional amendment that bars new casinos from Missouri be blithlely described as "Gaming expansion." So, if Ohio voters approve Lakes Entertainment's proposed casino, will that be "gaming contraction"?
