Taken at face value, October's revenue numbers for Nevada casinos were calamitous. Looked at in context (i.e., coming off a 10% increase from October '06 to '07) they were … still bad. But I'm going to resist the temptation to jump off my second-floor balcony at LVA HQ, especially since we're measuring the most anemic month of 2008 against the strongest second-strongest of 2007.
However: The next time somebody, anybody says the casino industry is "recession proof," they should be made to walk the plank straight into the new Mirage volcano, where their screams will mingle piquantly with the percussive stylings of Mickey Hart. Every day, I see more boarded-up store fronts and, last weekend, the Better Half and I were able to book a bargain-rate stay at Loews Lake Las Vegas. Talk about a ghost town: Other than the quacking of ducks, there was not a sound to be heard from our patio. (The casino across the lake at MonteLago wasn't quite dead, but they might want to keep those defibrillators handy.)
In an economy that has been brought to near-total ruination under the malign neglect of George W. Bush, it would be just plain unrealistic to expect people to gamble as they did during Vegas' halcyon years. We should have known this day was coming the moment we started reading about credit card and mortgage debt reaching unprecedented levels, as Americans lived off tomorrow to pay for today.
To the numbers …
Again, remember that these declivities are magnified by being directly compared to a robust year-before performance. The big story appears to be quadruple-whammy leveled on the Strip, where table game drop was down (-20%), as was baccarat drop (-36%), ditto table hold, ditto baccarat hold. Less play + unlucky play goes a long way (as in $100 million-plus) toward explaining the wretched -26% overall comparison. A 17% slippage in slot handle didn't help, but the real damage was done in the table pits, which led the way to a 10th straight month of declines.
The locals market is still slightly (3%) up for the year, but October won't help, with Downtown (-20%), Laughlin (-15%), the Boulder Strip (-28%) and North Las Vegas (-35%) — where Station Casinos was poised to open Aliante Station — all taking it on the chin. Compared to those numbers, Reno's "mere" 7% dropoff looks like a moral victory or something.
After posting an anemic $475 $905 million for October '08 ($475 million on the Strip), was Nevada able to match the previous November's less-than-stellar $520 $981 million ($520 million " ")? The answer will tell us whether we've hit an extremely nasty pothole or been driven clear off the road.
Update: Table game play was extremely lucrative on the Boulder Strip, of all places, which means … which means … nah, I got nuthin'.
In fairness to Leon Black (see previous item), his new gambit of gobbling up $20 billion worth of devalued debt beats the heck out of, say, buying an already-debt-encumbered Harrah's Entertainment at a premium price. But, given the choice between investing one's money with Apollo Management and hiding it under the mattress, the mattress is looking awful good at the moment. At least money's not going to lose any value there.
