Nevada: The recovery continues; Elsewhere: Not so much

After a boffo February, the Silver State also posted extraordinary numbers in March. As Deutsche Bank headlined its report, “Different Month, Same Tune.” Analyst Carlo Santarelli cautioned, “we believe the underlying trends are not as strong as the headline would suggest,” pointing toward slippage in slot handle and in table drop (down 10.5%), excluding baccarat. But Strip revenues have risen 7% in the first quarter, as have statewide ones. March numbers on the Las Vegas Strip leapt like a frog, up 13%. Even with less coin-in, tighter holds pushed slot win up 6%. Baccarat action was back in a big way (as in 93%), with casinos winning $77 million. By comparison, the bump in all other table win on the Strip (5%) seemed unspectacular. We get so spoiled sometimes.

J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff called the numbers a harbinger of “continued uneven recovery,” expecting a 7.5% boost when April’s numbers are released. Whatever munificence the tourists — whose attendance was almost identical with last year’s, are experiencing isn’t being felt at the local level. While the Average Joe in Clark County was playing (and losing) quite a bit more last spring, March’s numbers were flat. Downtown was up 5% (even if Tony Hsieh thinks people shouldn’t be gambling there), while the Boulder Strip and North Las Vegas experienced very modest declines. Laughlin dealt itself  a bad hand, though, down 13%. Life was good to Reno (+11%) and Elko (8%) but not Lake Tahoe (-11%), which has become pretty small potatoes as a market.

Picking through a few regional markets, Iowa had another “blah” month, down 2%. Caesars Entertainment and Ameristar Casinos came out slightly ahead but Isle of Capri Casinos had a slow month, down 3% overall. And is Penn National Gaming just phoning it in on Argosy Sioux City, now that it’s contract with the state isn’t going to be renewed? How to explain that 11% decline? Except for a 32% dropoff aboard Rhythm City, there were no dramatic fluctuations to report. Independent operators generally had a good month, up 5%.

Missouri would have been down 5% last month were it not for the customers repatriated by Isle’s Cape Girardeau casino, good for almost $6 million. That softened the blow of a terrible month in the St. Louis area. But even with an 18% plunge at Hollywood Casino St. Louis, its $20 million gross still dwarfed the $13 million of Pinnacle Entertainment‘s Lumiere Place (left), solidifying my conviction that Pinnacle will shed another vestige of the Dan Lee era and put Lumiere Place on the market if  the Federal Trade Commission frowns upon one casino company owning almost 75% of one market. Factoring in Illinois-side Casino Queen and Alton Belle might dilute the numbers just enough for Pinnacle to appease the feds, although Lumiere Place does seem ripe for divestiture.

River City was steady, year over year, and declines at Ameristar St. Charles and Lumiere Place were in the 3-4% range. We’ve now lapped the one-year anniversary of Penn’s Kansas Speedway casino and the Kansas City market appears to have adjusted to absorb the newcomer. Except for Penn’s Argosy Riverside (up 3%, believe it or not), the declines were smallish: -3% at Ameristar Kansas City, -3% on Isle of Capri Kansas City and -5% aboard Harrah’s North Kansas City. As bad as seasonal flooding can be in the Show-Me State, one is happily surprised that the numbers weren’t worse.

Speaking of anniversaries, Revel just passed its one-year mark, although this isn’t a context in which one thinks of popping champagne corks. Caesars Atlantic City rose 6% and the Atlantic Club (possibly with the help of some PokerStars subsidies) was up 37%, while Trump Taj Mahal (-1%) and Borgata (-1.5%) held their ground, consistent with previous trends. (Wherever Revel is getting its customers, it’s not from the other high-end properties; so much for that theory.) For everybody else, if April wasn’t the cruelest month she was a mean bitch: double-digit declines up and down the Boardwalk. Reporting a beyond-pathetic $6 million, Trump Plaza fell 32% while half-rebuilt Bally’s Atlantic City still posts sickly numbers, down 29.5%. But … but … and again, but — Revel somehow managed to fall 40% off the very modest business ($13.5 million) recorded during its protracted soft opening, landing in next-to-last place with an $8 million thud. Assuming that any reputable casino company wants to take on this white elephant, nothing short of a total rebranding seems enough to salvage a casino so arrogant that — and I still can’t believe this — it didn’t have a players’ club, among other missing amenities. Where’s Sheldon Adelson when you really could use him?