On his way home from Black Hawk, Colorado, gaming analyst Barry Jonas of Truist Securities popped into Las Vegas. He met with various and sundry publicly traded companies, even MGM Resorts International, for which he feels little love. He also sat down with executives from Caesars Entertainment, Station Casinos, Boyd Gaming, International Game Technology, Light & Wonder and Everi. His conclusion? “Start your engines.” What did Jonas mean by that? As he explained, “We left incrementally positive on Vegas’s outlook post-Omicron. The Strip and Locals markets appear healthy with each month since January seeing [sequential] improvement, and a full return of group/convention business pending but increasingly visible.” He also noted that slot manufacturers were seeing “increasing demand” due to “strong content,” ratifying other reports that game-buying is going to pick up well in advance of Global Gaming Expo, the normal starting gun for product purchases.
As for the effect of the wider economy upon Sin City, “pent-up demand continues to trump inflation and higher gas prices. However, we continue to be mindful of extended inflation potentially changing the outlook.” One unnamed casino operator reported some erosion among lower-end customers but they are an outlier so far (we hope). The second half of the year looks good for convention business, fattened further by events that were rescheduled due to Omicron. 2023 is looking better still. Nor does the event calendar hurt, especially with Las Vegas landing a Formula One race in November of next year.
Locals business is also characterized as “strong,” with home prices on the upward march, thanks to an influx of tax refugees from other states. Boyd and Station professed no concerns about the return of the Palms Casino Resort on April 27: “They continue to see a healthy market where players will frequent the properties nearest them and the promotional environment remains mostly rational.” As for regional operators, they’re finding Baby Boomers still shy, especially as Covid-19 continues to rampage. Customers are dropping more into slot machines, but not quite at 2019 levels. “One manufacturer believes spend this year will be 85% of 2019 with a full return by 2023—this despite the fact that slot machine counts on floors have compressed since COVID hit. There is a focus on quality over quantity and some operators are allocating more spend to premium games,” wrote Jonas.
As expected by both operators and manufacturers, cashless gaming remains on a slow-and-steady course to adoption. Unlike Penn National Gaming, which was quick to partner with Everi, most operators are keeping their powder dry, waiting to see what kind of product the market disgorges. That said, cashlessness is believed to be not only important but inevitable.
No surprise, the final month of regular NFL play was good for Arizona sports books ($564 million in handle), with $42 million in revenue derived therefrom … albeit diluted by $21 million in promotional outlays. Although companies continue to build expensive sports-betting palaces in the state, 99% of all January wagering was done online. DraftKings was first in handle ($173 million) but second in revenue with $12 million, lagging FanDuel’s $13 million. All-online BetMGM was next with $11 million and then came Caesars Sportsbook with $4 million. Two sports betting licenses are still up for grabs, expected to go to the San Juan Southern Paiute Tribe, although late movers have to be content with chicken feed, as sports betting goes.
Chances for a Rush Street Gaming casino in Chicago are fading fast. The latest blow was dealt by Alderman Byron Sigcho-Lopez who said he “cannot support” Rivers 78, citing heavy opposition within his ward, where the project would go. A poll of area residents found 78% (how coincidental) saying they either were highly or somewhat unsupportive of Neil Bluhm‘s casino proposal. Bluhm’s pipe dream also went up in smoke with Chinatown residents. Concerns cited by Chicagoans included increased traffic, higher crime, problem gambling and depressed home values. Concluded Sigcho-Lopez, “It is clear that residents of the ward and surrounding areas are not in favor of it.” (Only 12% of survey respondents liked the idea of a casino.)
The alderman put the ball in Bluhm’s court. “Where is the support coming from,” he queried. “It’s their responsibility to find it. And at this point, almost eight out of 10 residents in the area expressed concerns and rejected the proposal of a casino.” Bluhm partner Related Midwest Cos. responded with vague and patronizing blather, saying the polled residents were nothing next to “the tens of thousands of residents surrounding The 78 who are supportive of the plan, the 7,000 jobs it will create and the more than $5B in annual economic impact that will be infused into the neighborhood by the Entertainment District.” With all due respect to Rivers 78, casinos are good for the economy but should not be forced down the affected public’s throat.
At least Related/Rivers can point to an Axios Chicago poll that demonstrates public support, as well as the endorsement of Black Men United. However, the present kerfuffle highlights Mayor Lori Lightfoot‘s exclusion of representatives of the potentially impacted wards from her casino-selection committee, meaning that some NIMBY-minded locals are likely to have one of the three remaining contestants imposed upon them. Aldermen are currently positive toward the Hard Rock International proposal and divided on Bally’s Tribune. It’s often been said this game was Bluhm’s to lose … and he’s losing it.
Jottings: You have to be an early riser to beat Hard Rock International to the punch. The company announced it will have its temporary casino in Bristol, Virginia, open by July 8. It’ll have 900 slots, 20 tables and a sports book … Las Vegas Sands has run up the white flag on its $73 million pursuit of a Jacksonville megaresort. Sands tried to get a mulligan on its failure to collect the necessary 900,000 petition signatures but that effort fell flat in court … Sky River Casino in California won’t open until November but Boyd Gaming (manager of the Wilton Rancheria project, above) is already hiring for the $500 million resort. The target number of employees is 1,500.
