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- Ray Lebowski on Sibella scandal spreads; Supremes forestall Seminoles
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Gaming stocks rejiggered; Smoke blown at AGA
No, we don’t mean the Reddit/GameStop scandal, which has everyone from Sen. Ted Cruz (R) to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) up in arms. Instead, we’re looking at a downgrade of revenue estimates for a slew of projections by JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff, who adds that “[We] prefer to buy on pullbacks, generally.” So it’s not exactly bad news. Noting a rise in Covid-19 infections and corresponding “impact of casino restrictions on regional gaming visitation and spend,” Greff trimmed his estimates and rethought his price target for a who’s-who of regional gaming: Churchill Downs, Boyd Gaming, Caesars Entertainment, Golden Entertainment, Penn National Gaming, Station Casinos and Scientific Gaming. While lowering his forecast for 1Q21, Greff said 2Q21 would be “modestly better.” This doesn’t jib with the optimistic picture painted yesterday by American Gaming Association President Bill Miller, whose advocacy body does its own revenue tracking.
Greff elaborated that “vaccination hopes (which we share theoretically) allow for a more pronounced and sustainable consumer spend recovery starting in the 3Q21; we also know what marketing and staffing changes have been made—some of which are permanent—and have conviction that forward-year margins should be decently higher than pre-COVID-19 levels.” He added that gaming had been bolstered through a soft brick-and-mortar period by gains in sports betting and Internet play. He stuck with his price target for Station ($31/share) and added two bucks to his Boyd goal (to $54). The reasons have been well-rehearsed in this space, so we’ll skip them for now. He really likes Caesars, upping his target $6 to $89/share, noting that its William Hill purchase and i-gaming strategy are firming up nicely. “Additionally, CZR is attractively positioned for the return of the 55+ customer base to its casinos (we think this gains momentum along with vaccine distribution). During this period of COVID-19 related lockdowns/limited discretionary spend, many 55+ Caesars Rewards members have benefitted from increased savings and record-high home values and stock prices.”
Posted in AGA, Barstool Sports, Boyd Gaming, Caesars Entertainment, Churchill Downs, Cordish Co., DraftKings, Economy, Florida, Golden Gaming, Hard Rock International, Health, Horseracing, Illinois, Internet gambling, Marijuana, Marketing, MGM Resorts International, Nevada, New Jersey, Penn National, Pennsylvania, Rush Street Gaming, Scientific Games, Sports, Sports betting, Station Casinos, Tribal, Wall Street, William Hill
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Las Vegas recovery: A definite maybe; Woe at Sands
First, the bad news. Las Vegas emerged from a December that was just plain awful, as discretionary income continues to dry up. Las Vegas Strip win plummeted 51% to $292 million. Statewide, gambling revenue toppled 35.5% for $684 million, an even poorer showing than we expected. The closest thing to a bright spot was the play of Las Vegas locals, who left ‘only’ 17% less year/year in the slots and on the tables. Heck, it would have been worse had November not ended on a weekend, thereby carrying some late-month income into December when the slots were tallied. This occurred at the same time that various amen corners are saying the future’s so bright we’re going to need sunglasses. Perhaps so, but the December numbers give us an idea of how far we have to go to get back to ‘normal.’
Looser hold didn’t help Strip casinos, whose slot winnings fell 55% on 43% less coin-in. Table-game win ($141 million) fell 46% on 44% less wagering. It’s worse than it looks because the Strip had a relatively good month at baccarat, winning 16% less despite 50% lower play. Not even Circa could save Downtown, off 28% to $45.5 million, whilst North Las Vegas slipped 34% to $19 million. The Boulder Strip stumbled 24.5% to $62 million, Laughlin dipped 19.5% to $26.5 million and miscellaneous Clark County was down 6% to $100.5 million. Utahns came to the rescue of Mesquite, flat at $11 million. Upstate, things looked slightly better. Reno slid 16% to $44 million and volatile Lake Tahoe was relatively mild, down 14% to $15.5 million. Wendover was off 10% to $16 million. Maybe that last-minute Trump administration economic-diversification won’t be so bad for Wendover Will after all. And with that we draw the curtain on a year that Nevadans would heartily prefer to forget.
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Posted in AGA, Alex Yemenidjian, Arizona, Boulder Strip, Caesars Entertainment, California, China, Conventions, Derek Stevens, Downtown, Economy, Health, Internet gambling, Japan, Lake Tahoe, Las Vegas Sands, Laughlin, LVCVA, Macau, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, Mesquite, Mohegan Sun, New York, North Las Vegas, Reno, Sheldon Adelson, Singapore, South Korea, Sports betting, Texas, The Strip, Tilman Fertitta, Tourism, Wall Street, Wendover, Wynn Resorts
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Quote of the Day
“If you have this amenity and there’s sports betting at the card rooms, you might add 250 jobs and the secondary effect of those jobs. We have over 2,200 employees in the state. They’re great-paying jobs with an average salary above $75,000. They’re able to support their families, and they’re needed in this state.”—Maverick Gaming owner Eric Persson on ending tribal exclusivity to offer sports betting in Washington State.
Posted in Card rooms, Economy, Maverick Gaming, Sports betting, Washington State
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Profile in cowardice; Sheldon Adelson’s ghost
We were sure this was a story from The Onion or the Babylon Bee but, no, it’s really a thing. Rodney Baker has resigned as CEO of Great Canadian Gaming Corp. after bringing disgrace upon it with a vaccination caper that made international headlines. He and his Russian trophy wife Ekaterina (young enough to be his daughter) flew to Yukon then—allegedly—chartered a private plan to the remote town of Beaver Creek. Once there, Baker, who makes $10.5 million a year, and his princess passed themselves off as employees of a local motel (allegedly) in order to qualify for high-priority Covid-19 vaccinations. Once they got what they wanted, they decided to skip town ASAP. Being afflicted with stupidity as well as an overweening sense of entitlement, they made the mistake of asking for a ride to the airport. Red flags went up and pretty soon the Mounties were on the case … and they always get their man.
It would be great to see Canadian authorities throw the book at these two freeloaders but it’s a light book: $1,150 in fines (already levied) and an optional six months in the clink, which seems highly unlikely. Needless to say, public outrage is running high. “We are deeply concerned by the actions of individuals who put our Elders and vulnerable people at risk to jump the line for selfish purposes,” remarked White River First Nation Chief Angela Demit. “Effectively what they did was they put our community and our isolation team at risk,” added Yukon Community Services Minister John Streicker. “I’m pretty angry at the whole thing.” Great Canadian did not comment on Baker’s precipitate departure but perhaps we should give the last word to Mrs. Baker, whose public posture earlier in the pandemic was, “I stay home to be part of the solution. Everyone, stay home. It’s the right thing to do.” Right then, wrong now.
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Posted in Architecture, Boulder Strip, Boyd Gaming, Caesars Entertainment, Canada, Churchill Downs, Cretins, Culinary Union, DraftKings, FanDuel, Health, Illinois, Indiana, Law enforcement, MGM Resorts International, PointsBet, Politics, Regulation, Sheldon Adelson, Sports, Sports betting, Tennessee, Tribal, Wall Street, William Hill, Wynn Resorts
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Life after Adelson; Super Bowl odds revealed
Taking a business-as-usual approach, Las Vegas Sands reported 4Q20 earnings and JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff wasn’t blown away, writing that “we, like most investors, see the quarter and any outlook commentary offering little in the way of positive developments for Macau … given recent COVID-19 infection spikes in China and ensuing tightened control over tourist visa issuance for mainlanders to visit Macau.” Given the rampant nature of Coronavirus, Greff foresees but a “modest” boost from Chinese New Year. Mass-market tables and slots were down 64% year/year and VIP win fell 76%. Still, that’s a big improvement from 3Q20, when business was negligible. Greff pegs 3Q21 as the time Macao will come back. He recommended buying Macao-centric stocks, citing Melco Resorts & Entertainment, as well as “fatigue” about the pace of Macao’s comeback and that they are “under-owned in general.”
Continue readingLouisiana doldrums; Philadelphia Live sparkles
Does reporting bad news get tedious? You bet! But it comes with the turf. Louisiana casino winnings declined 23% last month, in keeping with the national average. Penn National Gaming casinos got off easiest, slipping 11%, while Boyd Gaming ones tumbled 25% and Caesars Entertainment plunged 38%. The latter wasn’t helped by the continued closure of Isle Grand Palais, a hurricane victim. The statewide gross was $162 million. Capacity limits (50%) and reductions in gaming positions (-75%) remain severe, though a larger economic malaise appears to be in play.
Baton Rouge got off by far the easiest, down 7%, led by L’Auberge Baton Rouge (pictured) with $12.5 million, a 1% gain. Casino Rouge was 11.5% off the pace at $4 million, while ancient Belle of Baton Rouge deservedly plummeted 44% to $1 million. In Lake Charles, market share was best defended by Golden Nugget, grossing $24 million and down 8%. L’Auberge Lake Charles slid 19.5% to $23 million and Delta Downs shed 18% to $12 million. New Orleans suffered the most of any market, with Harrah’s New Orleans emaciated 37.5% to $16.5 million. Runner-up was Boomtown New Orleans, down 14.5% to $8 million, while Treasure Chest notched $6 million, a 28% spill, and Fair Grounds racino eked out $2.5 million, a 33% dive. Amelia Belle scraped up $2 million, down 32.5%.
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Posted in Animals, Bally, Baseball, Boyd Gaming, Caesars Entertainment, Churchill Downs, Colorado, Connecticut, Cordish Co., CQ Holdings, Cretins, Dining, DraftKings, Economy, FanDuel, FoxBet, Foxwoods, Golden Nugget, Health, Illinois, Indiana, Internet gambling, Jim Murren, Law enforcement, Louisiana, Marketing, Massachusetts, MGM Resorts International, Mohegan Sun, Nevada, New Jersey, Penn National, Pennsylvania, Politics, Rush Street Gaming, Sports, Tennessee, Wall Street, West Virginia, William Hill
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Quote of the Day
“I appreciate the referees for putting up with all my fussing. I think I was right most of the time dadgummit!”—Indianapolis Colts quarterback Philip Rivers, in announcing his retirement from the NFL.
Adelson rolling in grave; Police blotter
It’s a good thing Sheldon Adelson didn’t live to see this. The First Circuit Court of Appeals quashed a 2019 reinterpretation of the Federal Wire Act by the Justice Department, one that broadly applied it to Internet gambling. The federal court agreed with a New Hampshire one that the Office of Legal Counsel had erred and that the Wire Act only applies to interstate sports betting. The case had been brought by the New Hampshire Lottery “We find the plaintiffs’ claims are justiciable and that the Wire Act applies only to interstate wire communication related to sports events or contests,” sayeth the court. Unless the Joseph Biden administration pursues this to the Supreme Court (highly unlikely), Eric Holder‘s narrow, 2011 interpretation of the Act will stand. In other words, the First Circuit has driven a stake through the heart of the anti-Internet-gaming movement, or what’s left of it.
Were Adelson still around and the First Circuit had upheld the 2019 revision, he wound have found himself in an awkward position. Earlier this week, ace reporter James Rutherford revealed that Las Vegas Sands “was in discussions with potential partners to enter the sports betting business, a move that would take the company down the internet gambling path which Adelson so vehemently opposed.” That would make Adelson even more of a pious fraud than he already was on the Internet issue. It’s a disservice to Sands shareholders that the company has missed the online-sports-betting boat, although it’s in no position to capitalize i-gaming, not after having quit Pennsylvania.
Posted in Cosmopolitan, Donald Trump, Economy, Hard Rock International, Harry Reid, Health, Indiana, Internet gambling, Las Vegas Sands, Law enforcement, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, PointsBet, Politics, Regulation, Sheldon Adelson, Spectacle Entertainment, Sports betting, Taxes
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The Strip plays Capitol Hill
It was like the good old days of the Las Vegas Strip were back in full flower at President Biden’s inauguration. It featured two Strip headliners-in-limbo, Lady Gaga and Jennifer Lopez, as well as former headliner Garth Brooks, crossing party lines to deliver a moving “Amazing Grace.” Her Ladyship’s very personal rendition of “The Star-Spangled Banner” got the proceedings off to a rousing start and every performer gave hope of better times ahead for Sin City.
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Posted in Current, Entertainment, history
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Icahn saves Trump Dump; Disaster in Pennsylvania
Carl Icahn‘s abusive-codependent attachment to Trump Plaza knows no ends. In his latest gambit, the magnate has kiboshed the implosion of the ramshackle ex-casino that had been slated for sometime in February, by dint of obtaining a cease-and-desist order. Instead, dismantling of the crumbling relic will continue at a stately pace, with plans for the site still unknown. At least Icahn, who has repeatedly embarrassed Atlantic City, showed some grace this time. He short-circuited Mayor Marty Small‘s auction of the demolition rights by matching the leading bid—$175,000—and donating it to the Boys & Girls Clubs of Atlantic City. Our sincere thanks for that, Uncle Carl. “From the beginning, we thought the auction and any other related spectacle presented a safety risk, and we were always clear we did not want to participate in any way,” said an Icahn mouthpiece. Opined The Press of Atlantic City, “We hope this happy ending opens the way for redevelopment of the Plaza site for the benefit of all.” We hope so too.
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Posted in Affinity Gaming, Atlantic City, Barstool Sports, Boyd Gaming, Carl Icahn, Charity, Churchill Downs, Cordish Co., Dan Gilbert, Donald Trump, Economy, FanDuel, Greenwood Racing, Internet gambling, MGM Resorts International, Michigan, Ohio, Penn National, Pennsylvania, Pinnacle Entertainment, Rush Street Gaming, Sports betting, The Strip, Tribal, Trump Entertainment Resorts, Wall Street, Wendover, William Hill, Wynn Resorts
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Reader poll
We recently received a question about non-Las Vegas gaming markets and you would know the answer better than we would: You live near them and you play there. The questioner asks which of the following alternative markets are best for variety and product? Thanks for participating.
- Atlantic City
- Biloxi
- Laughlin
- Other (please specify)
Posted in Atlantic City, Laughlin, Mississippi
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Massachusetts hit hard; NFL playoffs a tossup
Between Covid-19 capacity restrictions (33%) and statewide curfews (9:30 p.m., when the night owls are just getting rolling), Massachusetts casinos were between a rock and a hard place last month, with revenues falling 40% to a meager $50 million. If there was a silver lining for anybody, it was at Plainridge Park, whose slots collected an above-average win/slot/day of $247 and whose market share was 18%, closing the gap with MGM Springfield‘s 23%. Encore Boston Harbor remained dominant with 59%. Encore revenue plummeted 46% to $29 million, MGM made $11.5 million (-40%) and Plainridge Park won $9.5 million, only 10% off the pace on 10% less coin-in. (They must have some pretty loyal customers.) MGM saw 33% less slot handle (an anemic $118/win/slot/day) and a disastrous 60% plunge in table game revenue. Where JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff had predicted a 15% decline in the fourth quarter, MGM delivered -34%.
At Encore, it was the opposite story. Greff expected a 50% 4Q20 decline and Encore managed -34%, a victory of sorts we suppose. Slot handle fell 29% and so did revenue from the one-armed bandits. Table game win was $2,972/table/day (contrast that to MGM’s $543). But even tightening the hold on the slots didn’t help that department. Plainridge Park is obviously doing things right, Encore somewhat the same but a serious rethink of MGM’s gaming product appears in order. Connecticut tribes who feared competition from Springfield can sleep easily at night.
Continue readingFlynt winning in California; Caesars S.I. to Cherokee?
Larry Flynt continues to be the de facto leader of California‘s card room industry. He’s fighting in court against a Golden State law that prevents card room owners from holding stakes in out-of-state casinos. (Flynt in Las Vegas? Imagine!) When Gov. Gavin Newsom‘s administration moved to dismiss Flynt’s suit, Judge John Mendez said ‘No.’ He also indicated that the law could contravene the interstate-commerce clause of the U.S. Constitution. Flynt has been waging this battle since 2016. He co-owns two card rooms, Hustler Casino (what else?) and Lady Luck, both in Commerce. The law Flynt is trying to overthrow was enacted in 1986, in an attempt to keep Mob influence out of California’s gaming industry. If so much as one slot machine went into Flynt’s Vegas-area strip club, he’d either have to sell the club or his card rooms. For Flynt, that is Sophie’s Choice.
Continue readingQuote of the Day
“Let no man pull you so low as to hate him.”—Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., whose life we celebrate today.
Posted in history
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Wynn, loopy attorney in legal feud; Philly goes Live
Steve Wynn is back in the news again. His former attorney, L. Lin Wood, is suing Wynn for alleged defamation, the ex-casino mogul supposedly having told Donald Trump that Wood was several fries short of a Happy Meal. The falling out between Wood and Wynn came after a charity dinner, at which Wood extolled the superior virtues of Christianity to Wynn, a Buddhist by way of Judaism. Before that, Wynn was happy to have Wood doing his dirty work, whether it was trying to muzzle an attorney for victims of Wynn’s sexual harassment or sweeping aforesaid misconduct under the rug. Of one sexual assault Wynn said churlishly, blaming the victim, “Anybody who is over 10 years old and knows what goes on in the world knows what happens next. Along comes this gal who had a turn with me, obviously being advised on what to do. So, in this context, $7.5 million was not a significant number. And I paid it.”
As for Wood’s sanity, judge for yourself. He was banned from Twitter for calling for Vice President Mike Pence‘s execution by firing squad. He’s shilled for QAnon. He has insinuated that Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts is both a pedophile and somehow complicit in the death of Justice Antonin Scalia. Oh, and sex-abuser Jeffrey Epstein is alive and thriving. A Delaware judge recently ruled that Wood’s in-court behavior “exhibited a toxic stew of mendacity, prevarication, and surprising incompetence.” And this is who Steve Wynn chose to handle his legal affairs? Pardon us but we don’t have a dog in this fight.
Quote of the Day
“My platoon of 18-year-olds showed more professionalism every day than the Capitol police do.”—Rep. Seth Moulton (D), a former U.S. Marine.
Posted in Current
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Chilly in Atlantic City, deep freeze in Detroit; Siegfried, R.I.P.
Casino revenues in Atlantic City plunged 29% last month. “Results for the month reflect the negative impact of higher new COVID-19 cases in recent weeks, capacity limits and restrictions on F&B offerings, similar to other regional markets,” writes JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff. The gross was $147 million, with slot revenues plummeting 34.5% and tables down 17%. As we’ll get to momentarily, there was some compensatory news on the cyber front, with i-gaming revenues shooting 102% higher than last year and sports betting skyrocketing 126%. As PlayUSA analyst Dustin Gouker put it, “The pandemic has had a diametrically opposite effect on New Jersey’s online and retail markets for both sports betting and casino games. But the growth of online betting was crucial in making up for at least some of the losses in revenue at Atlantic City casinos and certainly continue to steady the entire gaming industry.” But on to the brick-and-mortar stuff …
Borgata fell 28% $39.5 million as slots were down 31% and tables 28%. The Caesars Entertainment trio collapsed 41% on 46% less slot win, and tables were down 23%. Bally Corp. had a rough first month at its new, eponymous casino, spiraling 45% downward to $7 million. Caesars Atlantic City slipped 23% to $14 million, Harrah’s Resort was a calamitous -53% for $12 million and Tropicana Atlantic City dove 42% to $13.5 million. Only Hard Rock Atlantic City was revenue-positive, up 2% to $26 million. Ocean Resort stumbled 9% to $19 million, Resorts Atlantic City plummeted 42% to $7 million and Golden Nugget slid 43% to $8 million.
Posted in Atlantic City, Bally, Barstool Sports, Caesars Entertainment, Centaur Gaming, Derek Stevens, Detroit, Dining, Donald Trump, DraftKings, Entertainment, FanDuel, Golden Nugget, Hard Rock International, Health, Indiana, International, Internet gambling, Las Vegas Sands, MGM Resorts International, Mohegan Sun, New Jersey, Ocean Resort, Penn National, Pennsylvania, PointsBet, Politics, Regulation, Spectacle Entertainment, Sports betting, Station Casinos, The Strip, Tribal, Unite-Here, Wall Street
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Quote of the Day
“Some of the restrictions make sense and others, well, let’s just say they are ill-conceived. The fact that restaurants and bars are still being hit with arbitrary and capricious restrictions is maddening, especially when visiting retail stores and seeing how little restrictions are in place. Diners have to make a reservation in advance for a restaurant, but 437 people can walk right into a Costco without the blink of an eye. Our ‘leaders’ are failing us.”—Carson Kitchen owner Cory Harwell on Las Vegas restaurant restrictions.
Posted in Dining, Health, Regulation
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Covid cramps casino revenues; Trop LV in play … again
Now that the smartest man in the room has left the building permanently, we continue to wait for Wall Street‘s reaction to Sheldon Adelson‘s demise. Hearing none, we move on to varying degrees of decline in regional gaming, once thought impervious to the Covid-19 pandemic. It wasn’t so bad in Missouri, where revenues slipped 8.5%. Boyd Gaming properties held serve, flat year/year but Penn National Gaming took a 24% tumble, while Caesars Entertainment edged 3.5% down. The statewide gross was $134 million, with slots ($116 million) down 7.5% and table games ($18 million) off 13%. Statewide champ was Ameristar St. Charles, up 8.5% to $24 million. Neighboring Hollywood St. Louis plunged 25% to $15 million. Caesars did well at Lumiere Place, up 8% to $14 million. River City (Penn) crashed 29% to $14 million.
Over in Kansas City, only Bally Corp. was revenue-positive at Isle of Capri Kansas City, leaping 18% to $6.5 million. Ameristar Kansas City fell 10% to $14 million and Harrah’s North Kansas City was off 11.5% to $13 million. Penn was slightly more fortunate than in St. Louis, taking in $12.5 million at Argosy Riverside a -14.5% drop. Caesars slipped 8% at Isle of Capri Boonsville, to $6 million, and Century Casinos was 2% down in Caruthersville ($3.5 million) but 14.5% up in Cape Girardeau ($6 million). Independent St. Jo Frontier had an unfortunate month, falling 20.5% to $3 million but Mark Twain Casino jumped 19% to $3 million. Such are the vagaries of small-market gaming.
Posted in Arizona, Atlantic City, Bally, Barstool Sports, Boyd Gaming, Caesars Entertainment, California, Carl Icahn, Century Casinos, Conventions, DraftKings, Economy, FanDuel, Full House Resorts, GLPI, Health, Indiana, Kentucky, Massachusetts, MGM Resorts International, Missouri, Penn National, Politics, Rush Street Gaming, Sheldon Adelson, Singapore, Spectacle Entertainment, Sports betting, The Strip, Tilman Fertitta, Tribal, William Hill
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