Gone baby, gone

[T]he confidence that ­property prices and stock markets would permanently defy gravity” is a phrase that perfectly encapsulates how the casino industry got itself into its present pickle. In what other mindset could an industry convince itself that it could dump CityCenter, Cosmopolitan, a grotesquely enlarged (and now deficit-ridden) Hard Rock Hotel and failsinos like Fontainebleau, Echelon, the Plaza, the short-lived Maxim project, Viva (above) and sundry other crack-pipe dreams into the Strip market more or less one atop the other? Executives at Harrah’s Entertainment and Station Casinos would have you believe that the Great Recession was the only thing that put them in the ditch.

That’s a load of bull manure. Those LBOs were predicated on expectations and projections of continued revenue growth … in short, upon a gravity-defying economy. Had things merely continued at 2006-07 those companies would still be strangulating on their debt-to-cash-flow ratios.

Just around the corner/There’s a rainbow in the sky./So let’s have another cup of coffee/And let’s have another piece of pie.”

Those are the lyrics from a rather annoying and smug Depression-era song and there’s some of that self-deluding talk going through the casino industry these days. While the fallacies that gambling is “recession-proof” or even merely “recession-resistant” have been slain, one still hears happy talk of “pent-up demand.” Sterne Agee analyst David Hargreaves describes this as “an overused buzz phrase that only applies when people feel comfortably well off” or the “We’re expecting sunshine today because it rained yesterday” mentality.

Perhaps it can be best demonstrated as follows:

It’s a good thing for the industry that high-end play never went away en masse and that most of the major operators were sufficiently diverse, geographically, to capture the “convenience” gambler … especially when going to Vegas became Continue reading

Posted in Archon Corp., Atlantic City, Boyd Gaming, Cannery Casino Resorts, CityCenter, Colony Capital, Cosmopolitan, Current, Dining, Economy, Encore, Entertainment, Environment, Fontainebleau, Harrah's, history, Marketing, MGM Mirage, Regulation, Station Casinos, Steve Wynn, Taxes, The Strip, Tourism, Wall Street | 4 Comments

Quote of the Day

“Think of the American economy as a large apartment block. A century ago – even 30 years ago – it was the object of envy. But in the last generation its character has changed. The penthouses at the top keep getting larger and larger. The apartments in the middle are feeling more and more squeezed and the basement has flooded. To round it off, the elevator is no longer working. That broken elevator is what gets people down the most.” — Harvard University economics professor Larry Katz, on Americans’ downward economic mobility (a phenomenon that should be of considerable alarm if you own a casino). Now if only Katz could explain where the douchebagerie gets its seemingly inexplicable wealth …

Posted in Current, Economy | 1 Comment

Ruffin: No bull

Treasure Island owner Phil Ruffin and his beloved mechanical bull made a guest appearance on CNBC and, characteristically, pulled no punches. (Ruffin, that is. The bull had no comment.) Even as MGM Resorts International, Harrah’s Entertainment and Las Vegas Sands talk “recovery,” Ruffin sees continued softening of demand on the Strip and no turnaround until next year. He brands Fontainebleau “toxic,” thanks to its mind-boggling completion budget and the costs attendant upon running such a behemoth. Dr. Ruffin also pronounces the condo market “dead,” with joint venture Trump International severely undersold and only marginally profitable, by his account. Once you get used to Ruffin’s increasingly Liberace-like countenance, he makes a helluva lot more sense than most of his competitors on the Strip.

For instance, if MGM Grand/Mirage/Resorts International/[Your Name Here] thinks it can get 14X cash flow for The Miragein this economy — you’ve gotta wonder what’s in the drinking water at MGM HQ. Maybe you could have found somebody euphoric enough to have paid that multiple when the Strip economy was at its most overheated, three years back. But that ship sailed long ago and with so much undeveloped (and unfinanceable) real estate gathering tumbleweeds along Las Vegas Boulevard South, it’ll be a cold day in Hell before somebody forks over essentially a 100% premium for what is no longer one of MGM’s top three Strip properties.

Ruffin makes a stark contrast to an apparently delusional Donald Trump. Even though condo prices have fallen as far as Continue reading

Posted in Carl Icahn, Current, Donald Trump, Economy, Fontainebleau, Harrah's, MGM Mirage, Phil Ruffin, Sheldon Adelson, The Strip, Tourism, Tropicana Entertainment, TV | 6 Comments

Quote of the Day

“It’s a risky story. We weren’t overly impressed with the results.” — Stern, Agee & Leach‘s David Bain on MGM Resorts International‘s 2Q10 revenues. CityCenter (left) lost $128 million in the quarter.

Posted in CityCenter, Current, Economy, MGM Mirage, Wall Street | Comments Off on Quote of the Day

The Tamares shuffle

Musical chairs continue at Tamares Group‘s downtown Las Vegas collection of crumbling casinos. Bobby Ray Harris is out as casino manager and Anthony F. Santo is in. Otherwise, it was the same old song and dance. $20 million worth of improvements are promised, including a redesign of the Vegas Club, and a makeover and name change of the Plaza. The dreaded Western may get — this may cause fainting spells — slot machines actually built in the 21st century!

Tamares is still characterized as the properties’ landlord although its unsubtle role in thwarting and/or delaying casino improvements isn’t just an open secret but even a matter of legal record (in the ultimately pointless “Plaza vs. Plaza” lawsuit against El Ad Properties). Tamares is “passive” in downtown like the erstwhile Soviet Union was toward Czechoslovakia.

Santo actually had to ensure the Nevada Gaming Control Board that he’d tell Tamares to Continue reading

Posted in Atlantic City, Carl Icahn, Current, Downtown, Harrah's, history, International, Regulation, Station Casinos, Tamares Group, Transportation, Tropicana Entertainment | 2 Comments

East Coast winners, losers; Angle’s strange bedfellows

I’ve become well and truly tired of writing about Massachusetts and its political establishment’s inability to get its act together on casino legalization. Suffice it to say that with Gov. Deval Patrick and House Speaker Robert DeLeo (left) firmly entrenched in opposing foxholes, chances of enactment this year are now zip. The losers are Bay State taxpayers, as millions of dollars in casino licensing fees and revenues slip through Beacon Hill’s fingers (especially as the value of a casino license itself continues to plummet).

There’s plenty of blame to go around, starting with Patrick, whose waffling on how much gambling he wanted and where frustrated the efforts of lawmakers to craft a compromise. DeLeo’s not entirely blameless, either, as his desire to “juice” horse tracks into racino status not only makes a joke of regulation but gives tracks several furlongs lead over resort-casino owners, who’d have to apply, get licensed, invest and build, trying to play catch-up with the horsey set and its slot parlors.

Incidentally, isn’t it past time to rethink of the sport of kings entirely? If it’s inherently unprofitable perhaps its future is to serve as an amenity for slot houses. The races would be a diversionary loss-leader for the casino: sort of like Matt Goss on four hooves.

Speaking of diminished value … that falling object you just saw was the asking price of an Atlantic City casino (not that you can sell one for love or money these days). Pennsylvania casinos notched an 18% revenue increase on the strength of Continue reading

Posted in Atlantic City, Current, Economy, Election, Entertainment, Harrah's, Horseracing, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Politics, Racinos, Sheldon Adelson | 5 Comments

Quote of the Day


“You know that if I walked on water, my opponents would complain that I can’ t swim.” — Gov. Deval Patrick (D-MA), who rejected a two-racino/three-casino legislative compromise, taking a hard-line stance. By letting the perfect be the enemy of the better (not to mention the bettor), Patrick risks having no casinos at all.

Posted in Current, Massachusetts, Politics, Racinos | Comments Off on Quote of the Day

Bad quarters for MGM, Boyd

Undershooting Wall Street‘s expectations for 2Q10, MGM Resorts International missed analyst projections and also took a big-ass writedown on CityCenter (above) consigning $1.2 billion to the dustbin. Hotel occupancy was up from 85% to 93% overall (although RevPAR slipped a wee bit) and CityCenter revenues were 39% better than the first quarter. The latter can be partly attributed to more amenities coming online or  (more likely) room pricing that better reflected market realities and MGM’s oversupply of rooms.

It could be worse but a source familiar with CityCenter says MGM’s been playing some serious handball with subcontractors on the project. “MGM’s not stupid,” the source said, explaining that when the real estate bubble imploded the company renegotiated contracts 20% downward, putting pressure on subcontractors’ operating margins. Now, the source says, “They’ve been grinding those people Continue reading

Posted in Atlantic City, Boulder Strip, Boyd Gaming, CityCenter, Current, Downtown, Economy, Marketing, MGM Mirage, Sheldon Adelson, Station Casinos, Steve Wynn, The Strip, Tourism, Wall Street | 5 Comments

Business is booming … overseas

At some point, Peking may decide that Macao is overheated but for the moment it’s simply red-hot. Revenues vaulted 70% last month, to the tune of $2 billion U.S. dollars (or $25,435,856,924 Zimbabwean), the second-best number in Macanese history. Wynn Resorts continues to outperform the competition with its 15% market share. Stanley Ho‘s archipelago of aging casinos still holds fully a third of the market, with Sands China a distant second at 18.5%. Melco Crown International (15%) and Galaxy Entertainment (13%) nip at Wynn’s heels, while MGM Grand Paradise brings up the rear with 7% of market share. (Goldman Sachs puts Sheldon Adelson‘s market share at 20%, shaving a point off both Sociedade de Jogos de Macau and Galaxy.)

In terms of cash flow (once Pansy Ho’s take is sifted out), Macao actually represents a less remunerative market for MGM Resorts International than — believe it or not — Detroit. Given that Macao’s casino rebound began a year ago, future gains in revenue are going to become progressively less spectacular as the year plays out. The promised IPO is progressing at a stately pace, meantimes. Junket VIP relationships remain “a new and very important effort.” It should have been very important several years ago — a miscalculation that Continue reading

Posted in Architecture, Current, Economy, Genting, International, James Packer, Lawrence Ho, Macau, Marketing, Melco Crown Entertainment, MGM Mirage, Movies, Pansy Ho, Regulation, Sheldon Adelson, Singapore, Stanley Ho, Steve Wynn, Technology, Tourism, Transportation, Wall Street | 1 Comment

CityCenter: Can’t stop the bashing

Won’t someone please give Sharron Angle a hammer so she can go over to Aria and start smashing windows or something? (If it lets more light into that damnably dank casino floor, she’s got my vote.) The woman’s carrying a hate-on for CityCenter the size of Vdara. Like a dog with a juicy new bone, she won’t let go of her simple-minded and wholly misguided notion that every line-employee job created at CityCenter was equaled by the subtraction of a job somewhere else on the Strip. (Yes, and unicorns prance along the banks of the Truckee River.)

In the latest and whiniest permutation of her CityCenter obsession, Angle has sent a spokeswoman forth to impute that there was something untoward, nay, downright nefarious in Sen. Harry Reid‘s ringing up banks to loosen the purse strings. (Reid’s GOP colleague Sen. John Ensign did the same thing … but Angle has never let intellectual consistency stand in the way of a talking point.) By doing so, Angle is conceding Continue reading

Posted in Atlantic City, CityCenter, Current, Economy, Election, Harrah's, Harry Reid, MGM Mirage, Movies, Reno, Steve Wynn, Wall Street | 1 Comment

Quote of the Day

“Living in Nevada is like sitting at a restaurant table where everyone’s kind of a cheapskate. Nobody here wants to pay taxes but you need that to have a competent government.” — Green Party gubernatorial candidate David Curtis.

Posted in Current, Economy, Election, Taxes | 3 Comments

Fertittas win: Boyd calls it quits

Boyd Gaming threw in the towel today, ending its pursuit of two-thirds of Station Casinos‘ assets. This makes it virtually a shoo-in that sock-puppet bidder Fertitta Gaming will prevail at the upcoming bankruptcy auction. The latter, a front for Station CEO Frank J. Fertitta III (left) and his loopy partner, Colony Capital CEO (and Stephenie Meyer groupie) Tom Barrack, is offering $772 million for a ragbag of Station properties ranging from tiny grind joints to large-scale facilities like Texas Station. Boyd had topped that with a $950 million — bid but that money’s off the table. Since Boyd has not waived its right of first refusal on the Borgata, you can guess where that money will now be spent.

Boyd balked at the sweetheart deal Station crafted for itself with the assent of Judge Gregg Zive (rhymes with “dive”). Among the things that stuck in Boyd CEO Keith Smith‘s craw were the infamous “Texas Station put” (whereby Fertitta Gaming gets the underlying land for nothing but anyone else would have to pay Mamma Fertitta 75 mil). Also, Station would have the prerogative of removing any and all employees of the casinos up for auction, leaving Boyd with unstaffed, dead-in-the-water properties. The casinos could also be denuded of various physical and intellectual-property assets that would further diminish their value.

Greatly undermining Boyd’s position was Station’s suasion of its unsecured creditors. Despite being out $2.8 billion, they’re willing to kick in $100 million more for a 15% stake in the reorganized Station. (They’d get as much as — roughly– $430 million worth of equity at a fire-sale price.) The premise of the bondholders’ lawsuit still stands, in our opinion. Namely Continue reading

Posted in Atlantic City, Boyd Gaming, Colony Capital, Current, Economy, Herbst Gaming, MGM Mirage, Regulation, Station Casinos, Wall Street | 6 Comments

Must-see TV

Now that The Greatest TV Show of All Time (sorry, Star Trek) is back for Season Four, here’s Christina Hendricks, who portrays my favorite Mad Men character, Joan Holloway. In this interview, she has a Joan Holloway-like effect on the anchorman, who’s reduced to inchoate babbling:

For those of you whose despair at the absence of the kind of Vegas seen in old movies, the notion of a Mad Men fashion trend should be appealing. Arrow shirts and Bermuda shorts would be a far preferable sight on the Strip to the douchebagerie with their Ed Hardy apparel and aluminum bottles of Bud Lite seemingly glued to their right hands — even in the Monte Carlo swimming pool. What a pity that Continue reading

Posted in Cirque du Soleil, CityCenter, Cretins, Current, Entertainment, MGM Mirage, The Strip, TV | 1 Comment

Concord in Massachusetts; Mixed bag at Melco

It’s been leaked to the Boston Globe that a deal is at hand that would resolve the impasse currently holding casino-enabling legislation at bay. While still probably not to Gov. Deval Patrick‘s liking (he wants one racino, the compromise bill would have two), it indicates that the state Senate has prevailed over the lower house. The nitty-gritty is that three resort casinos would be permitted (good news for Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts), while horse tracks would have to vie for a pair of licenses.

This last provision removes the seamy prospect of tracks like Suffolk Downs (above) getting “juiced” for slots while resorts operators grapple for finite licenses. The governor would like to see non-racing venues allowed to bid on the slot-parlor gig but, considering the concessions made by both sides (particularly by House Speaker Robert DeLeo), it’d be churlish and short-sighted to reject a bill such as the one that has (allegedly) been hammered out. Massachusetts really can’t afford to dawdle much longer, as the value of a casino license continues to decline.

A J.P. Morgan analysis of the compromise bill sees relief for the “stubbornly low” Continue reading

Posted in Arizona, Bally Technologies, Current, Detroit, Economy, Election, IGT, James Packer, Lawrence Ho, Macau, Melco Crown Entertainment, Politics, Racinos, Sheldon Adelson, Slot routes, Steve Wynn, The Strip, Tourism, WMS Industries | Comments Off on Concord in Massachusetts; Mixed bag at Melco

Quote of the Day

“The WWW charges a resort fee? Ha ha ha ha ha.” — LVA reader “The Ump,” on Station CasinosDays Inn at Wild Wild West Gambling Hall, which imposes a $4.95/night “local casino amenity fee.

Posted in Harrah's, Station Casinos, Tourism | 4 Comments

From the mailbag

A mystery illness has debilitated me off and on (more “on” than “off,” sadly) for the past seven days. Fortunately, lively reader debate in the “Comments” threads have kept things ticking over nicely in my absence. Also, I sometimes get reports from the field like what follows. It’s particularly valuable to somebody like myself, who lives in Las Vegas and becomes inured to incremental changes. To wit …

“• Slot machines are disappearing from casinos. I don’t know whether they are trying to ‘uncluter’ the layout or whether the slot companies have pulled them back from lack of use, but the [Las Vegas] Hilton has, in my guess, about 1/3 fewer machines—or more. A large part of the ‘Space Quest’ casino is now a sitting area for the coffee bar, a dice pit has replaced a big slot area on the main floor, and about 1/3 of the machines have been pulled from the sports book. Same thing on a smaller scale at Planet Hollywood—there used to be a slot area beside the Earl of Sandwich—that section is now just empty. At the Riviera, a large section near the new British pub that used to have rows of machines now has a few pods of three machines each.

Planet Ho’s integration of it’s A-list with Total Rewards is not as smooth as they have led people to believe. Continue reading

Posted in Carl Icahn, Colony Capital, Current, Dining, Economy, Fontainebleau, Harrah's, IGT, Laughlin, MGM Mirage, Planet Hollywood, Riviera, Technology, The Strip, Tourism | 4 Comments

Quote of the Day

“The gaming industry in particular viewed itself as nearly invulnerable, and Las Vegas … viewed itself as a place that could continually transform and develop a new destination that would be successful. This time around, it just didn’t work.” — William Eadington, director of the Institute for the Study of Gambling & Professional Gaming, at UNR, on the “unbridled optimism” of the casino industry in 2006-07.

Posted in Economy, history, The Strip | 1 Comment

Like I’ve been saying …

… strength in hotel rates is a top-down proposition, with such “recovery” as we’re seeing being driven by high-end product. The renewed strength in the business-travel sector also jibes with reports we’ve been getting from Las Vegas Sands and MGM Resorts International of increased convention business in late 2010, extending into next year. However, this phenomenon is being seen mainly on the coasts and looks as though it will take its time trickling down to the Strip.

Nice try but … there’s little wrong with Gov. Chris Christie‘s rescue plan for Atlantic City — other than its timing, for which one can’t blame Christie. He’s been in office fewer than seven months, after all.

However, Moody’s bond analyst Margaret Holloway suggests that Christie is racing the clock and Time is winning. She faults Harrah’s Entertainment for being so levered up that major capex investments are off the table. (Another triumph for Continue reading

Posted in Atlantic City, Economy, Harrah's, MGM Mirage, Sheldon Adelson, The Strip, Wall Street | 1 Comment

Barbour’s futile tilt?

It’s not just Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour who opposes a planned Choctaw Indian casino in upstate Laurel (birthplace of soprano Leontyne Price). Several other Bayou State bigwigs have expressed displeasure. Now the governor’s taking the Choctaws to court, although it’s looking like a futile gesture.

Barbour’s challenge rests upon the assertion that “the policy of this state [is] to develop destination gaming for the economic benefit of all Mississippians.” Unfortunately for the governor, the Indian Gaming Regulation Act doesn’t give a tinker’s damn Continue reading

Posted in Current, Election, Florida, history, Mississippi, Regulation, Tribal | 7 Comments

Quote of the Day

“I found a business that has a good story. Despite all the attacks on the business, this is a business that’s never held its hand out, never asked for subsidies.” — former Penn National Gaming executive and would-be Gettysburg casino developer Joseph Lashinger, speaking in defense of the industry. The accompanying article provides valuable perspective on the Gettysburg casino controversy.

Posted in Economy, history, Penn National, Pennsylvania | 1 Comment