Exit, pursued by a bear market

Aside from the occasional murmur by Wynn Las Vegas prexy Andrew Pascal, executives at Wynn Resorts keep a low (read: invisible) profile. Even the most assiduous follower of the casino industry would have trouble naming Wynn’s CFO off the cuff. If you answered, “David Sisk,” as of last Monday you’d be wrong. The contours of his golden parachute strongly suggest an involunatry exit, softened by at least $767,000 worth of severance pay, plus a limited-time offer of stock options.

One can’t fault the generosity of Mr. Sisk’s deal: He’s to be paid a year’s salary at pre-rollback rates and, from what little information is disclosed, it doesn’t appear that he’s bound to a non-compete clause. Odd that Wynn would do this without having a successor in the wings. Of course, there are more than a couple of ex-Las Vegas Sands and Harrah’s Entertainment executives updating their resumés these days.

“Encore, me no like!” According to Majestic Research analyst Matthew Jacob, customers are having a tizzy over Encore‘s “chambered” casino layout and gravitating back to more traditional Wynn LV. So what plays in Macao may flop in Vegas, huh? You can’t fault El Steve for trying. Jacob is predicting a squishy 1Q09 for Wynn Resorts, compounded by a first-ever patch of adversity at Wynn Macau.

Jacob is also the star of this CNBC segment on the gaming group, politely wiping the floor with Gabelli Global Multimedia Trust‘s Larry Haverty. The latter’s declaration that resiliency in regional casino markets bodes an imminent recovery of Las Vegas, though we all wish it were true, is a textbook instance of 2+2=5.

Barring Atlantic City and the wholly aberrant phenomenon that is Illinois, regional markets have never slumped as badly as Vegas is doing and were much quicker to recover. Regional diversification is a double-edged sword for gaming: It’s a valuable hedge against a wipeout in one key market, but it also gives customers that much less incentive to travel to Vegas or the Boardwalk when big-budget casino properties are coming closer and closer to home.

Haverty also goes off the rails vis-a-vis MGM Mirage‘s Aria and server-based gaming, predicting successful adoption at CityCenter will spur a wave of emulation. Yes, but … not so fast. First, the economy will have to come firmly out of its present nosedive before casinos contemplate capex spending of that magnitude. Secondly, some of SBG’s largest potential consumers — like Harrah’s Entertainment, Station Casinos, Las Vegas Sands and even MGM are so badly in hock that they’re in no position to participate in a major replacement cycle. Furthermore, I don’t believe International Game Technology expects more than, at most, an initially slow and incremental adoption of SBG — an infiltration of casino floors, not a blitzkrieg. But if you’re looking at IGT as a long-term investment, a drawn-out replacement cycle would probably be a more desirable scenario anyway.

There’s nothing in exceptionable in Jacob’s half of the interview. His more finely shaded and detailed observations contrast favorably with Haverty’s scattergun generalizations. And while I agree with the latter’s enthusiasm for Boyd Gaming, it’s a mite premature to be toasting Pinnacle Entertainment. If Pinnacle hadn’t gotten bogged down in Atlantic City and were making a more appreciable dent in the St. Louis market, then I’d raise my glass without reservation. When Pinnacle was in acquisition mode there were few assets for the taking. By the time that buffet was replenished, Pinnacle’s plate was full to overflowing.

Posted in Atlantic City, Boyd Gaming, Economy, Encore, Harrah's, IGT, Illinois, Macau, MGM Mirage, Pinnacle Entertainment, Sheldon Adelson, Steve Wynn, The Strip, Wall Street | Comments Off on Exit, pursued by a bear market

Icahn vs. Kerkorian II; Ho hearts Adelson

Yesterday saw some intemperate spluttering in newspaper comment threads, along the lines “How dare the Wall Street Journal report the news? It might damage stock prices!” (One hothead even bruited the possibility of a libel suit.) All of which was predicated on the assumption — and we know what happens when we assume — that the WSJ was merely chasing rumors when it reported that Carl Icahn and Oaktree Capital Management were putting the squeeze on MGM Mirage, trying to steer it into bankruptcy. (Some — including The Economist — think a CityCenter-driven bankruptcy is inevitable, regardless.)

Undeterred, the WSJ is back with the full story today and it’s the real deal. Icahn and Oaktree are not acting in concert and their agendas are Continue reading

Posted in Carl Icahn, Economy, Lawrence Ho, Macau, Melco Crown Entertainment, MGM Mirage, Sheldon Adelson, Stanley Ho, Steve Wynn, Wall Street | Comments Off on Icahn vs. Kerkorian II; Ho hearts Adelson

First, some good news

In a refreshing change of pace comes news of a casino that’s on schedule for its opening. OK, so it’s in Dodge City, Kansas, but we’ll take good news wherever we can get it these days. Whoever thought avionics firm Butler National would be the sole casino bidder to make good on its Sunflower State commitment?

How quickly we forget that the original plans for Red Rock Resort called for three condo-hotel towers. Station Casinos was feeling its oats back then, thinking big even as it projected only single-digit ROI at Red Rock as far out as 2011 or longer. Overconfident much?

They like us. They really, really like us. Casinos in Southern Nevada feeling the recession’s pinch are suddenly overflowing with newfound lurve for area customers, long taken for granted. Satellites like Primm and Mesquite weren’t any great shakes during Vegas’ halcyon years. Why you’d go out there now when oligopolists Herbst Gaming and Black Gaming have helped run their respective markets into the ground is difficult to fathom. (Primm, at least, has a good outlet mall. Mesquite … not so much.) Oh, and what’s wrong with this “Stay and Play Here” graphic?

Goodman one-ups Adelson. Although he’s never exuded warm fuzzies toward the Culinary Union, neither has — to my knowledge — Sheldon Adelson called his longtime adversary “evil.” So Mayor Oscar Goodman stepped into the breach — or stepped in something. As for the Culinary, it’s got much bigger problems to worry about.

Any company that planned an ultra-high-end Elvis Presley-themed resort (a conceptual disconnect if ever I heard one) doesn’t have both oars in the water. This one doesn’t have money in the bank, either, and may soon have its Strip parcel sold right out from under it.

Las Vegas’ best low-cost attraction is on the move, down the road to 1610 E. Tropicana Ave. If there’s a guest list for the grand reopening, Elton John isn’t on it.

Posted in Downtown, Economy, Entertainment, Herbst Gaming, Kansas, Labor, LVCVA, Marketing, Mesquite, Sheldon Adelson, Station Casinos, The Strip | Comments Off on First, some good news

Icahn vs. Kerkorian

According to a brief item in the Wall Street Journal, former Stratosphere owner Carl Icahn and investment fund Oaktree Capital Management are putting the squeeze on MGM Mirage and its majority shareholder Kirk Kerkorian. Quoth the WSJ, Icahn and Oaktree “have each gobbled up hundreds of millions of MGM Mirage bonds and have told the troubled casino giant it should quickly overhaul its massive debts in bankruptcy … ”

And where does Carl Icahn especially like to make acquisitions? In bankruptcy proceedings, that's where. The paper says Icahn and Oaktree have made it known to MGM that bankruptcy “is the best option” for the company.” Whether or not Icahn's endgame is to wrest MGM away from Kerkorian or simply to get a seat at the table, we could be looking at a real clash of the titans.

Posted in Carl Icahn, MGM Mirage, Wall Street | Comments Off on Icahn vs. Kerkorian

Garber to Harrah's? Apparently not

So is former PartyGaming PLC supremo Mitch Garber going to Harrah’s Entertainment or isn’t he? As of yesterday, it appears that the company is denyinga London Times report that it had signed Garber to head up a conglomeration of its online and World Series of Poker operations.

Or not. Asked for clarification, a Harrah’s flack replied, “There is not a statement and we do not comment on mktplace rumor/speculation.”

Since Garber joined PartyGaming in April 2006, several months prior to the odious UIGEA, a Garber-to-Harrah’s move would raise some thorny questions for regulators. Following UIGEA’s dead-of-night enactment, PartyGaming exited the U.S. market. However, up until that point it had been engaged in some slippery dealings to which it recently ‘fessed up.

PartyGaming has put a brave face on its accord with the U.S. Department of Justice, saying it “had no intention of breaking any laws” but its allocution shows that it went to considerable lengths to circumvent American banking rules. The seven-month overlap between Garber’s hiring and PartyGaming’s cutoff of U.S. play would be certain to put the executive under a regulatory microscope and, at minimum, require some dextrous explanation by Garber.

The company’s profession of quasi-innocence is further undercut by the fact that company co-founder Anurag Dikshit has copped a plea that included paying a $300 million fine. Garber’s former employer holds that its own deal with the feds was “amicable” and who are we to argue? If somebody was willing to hand me $105 million in return for causing them no further grief, I’d be quite amicably disposed, too.

PartyGaming can’t be feeling too much pain in the wallet, as it’s talking about making acquisitions. Nor will Garber be on his uppers if a reported Harrah’s job offer were withdrawn, considering the generosity of his pay package as an Internet gambling CEO.

S&G will try and stay abreast of this story as it continues to develop … or unravel.

We can rule out the “Warren Buffet of the Gulf” as a possible rescuer for CityCenter, from the looks of it. Prince Alwaleed of Saudi Arabia is selling much of his hotel portfolio to shore up his sagging fortune, including several of the Fairmont Raffles Hotels he co-owns with Colony Capital. It was an acquisition so expensive that Colony and its princely partner had to turn right around and sell much of it in return for management contracts. Colony’s luck in the resort sphere seems to come in two flavors, bad and worse.

Posted in Colony Capital, Harrah's, International, Internet gambling, MGM Mirage, Regulation, The Strip, World Series of Poker | Comments Off on Garber to Harrah's? Apparently not

Grab your ankles, casinos

Nevada lawmakers’ revenue model.

There’s one industry that does far and away more than any other to pay the bar tab for the State of Nevada and it’s probably about to be mandated to pay even more. That’s because even though we’re suffering through, proportionally speaking, the worst budget deficit in the U.S. and the methodology underlying Nevada’s general fund is incredibly flawed, other industries will be allowed to continue shirk their share of the load.

How do we know this? Because invertebrate gubernatorial wannabe Barbara Buckley (D-[Your logo here]) flat-out won’t support a corporate income tax. Which might be all right if she had a viable alternative, other than a pie-in-the-sky suggestion that Nevada diversify its economy.

Heck, people more serious than Buckley have been calling for such diversification for years and it still hasn’t happened (in part because the wretched state of Nevada education — about to get worse — scares companies away). And it’s sure as shooting not going to magically happen in the scant few weeks the Lege has to cobble together something resembling a budget.

Sales taxes and gaming taxes each represent roughly a third of the state’s revenue base. The former is regressive both by definition and in practice, while the latter discriminates heavily against one industry, while letting all others pretty much off the hook. For instance, the state’s two most lucrative mines paid $13.3 million in taxes to Nevada in all of 2007 — on $436 million in taxable revenues. Casinos, however, paid $65 million in taxes on $840 million in revenue last February alone.

Were Nevada’s gaming industry not in freefall, that disparity would be more glaring still. But Silver State solons would rather jam hot needles into their eyes than ask the sacrosanct extractive industries for one thin dime more. (Boy, they’ll be sorry when those mines are tapped out.)

Heck, our legal brothels have actually offered to be taxed but our maidenly lawmakers demurely proclaimed, “No, no, a thousand times, no! You cannot buy my caress.” How come? It would create — get this — image problems for a state that got on the map as the divorce capitol of America. Prostitutes are showing themselves more civic-minded that our ostensible “leadership” … but the profession known as prostitution has always been considerably more honest than the prostitution known as politics.

Given the ramshackle history of Nevada’s tax structure and some hints dropped by Buckley and crony Morse “Moose” Arberry, we’ve got a pretty good idea of what to expect from their Secret Budget Plan (under wraps until next month): More of the same. As in higher sales taxes, state fees … and, yes, gaming taxes. Steve Wynn‘s warning about the catastrophic effect of the latter is apparently going to fall upon deaf legislative ears. Wynn’s said he’s “the most powerful man in Nevada.” Now would be a good time to prove it.

On another note …

God forbid, you need to answer the call of nature during the playing of a mediocre Irving Berlin song, at least when you’re at Yankee Stadium. Support freedom — or else! That good old George Steinbrenner spirit remains alive and well, I see.

Posted in Baseball, Economy, Politics, Steve Wynn, Taxes | Comments Off on Grab your ankles, casinos

Case Bets: Seminoles, Iverson, Harrah's, PartyGaming, Station's luck, etc.

Down in Florida, the tide may be turning in favor of the Seminole Tribe. Both the Florida Retail Federation and Restaurant Lodging Association have thrown their support behind the status quo, as represented by Gov. Charlie Crist‘s Class III casino compact. Crist’s unilateral gambling expansion has the not-so-small problem of being unconstitutional but this latest turn of events ratchets up the pressure on solons to pass a version of the compact that meets judicial muster.

That’ll be no problem with the state Senate but the uptight House would like to roll back the Seminoles to slots-only status (and would get rid of the casinos altogether, if only they could in their benighted heart of hearts). The table-game genie isn’t going back into the bottle — at least not until the federal courts have their say — so the Solomonic question at hand is how to level the playing field for private-sector racinos without sacrificing Continue reading

Posted in Boyd Gaming, Colony Capital, Detroit, Don Barden, Florida, Harrah's, Horseracing, Internet gambling, Maryland, MGM Mirage, Pennsylvania, Politics, Regulation, Reno, Sports, Station Casinos, Tribal, Wall Street | Comments Off on Case Bets: Seminoles, Iverson, Harrah's, PartyGaming, Station's luck, etc.

Grab your ankles, casinos

Nevada lawmakers’ revenue model.

There’s one industry that does far and away more than any other to pay the bar tab for the State of Nevada and it’s probably about to be mandated to pay even more. That’s because even though we’re suffering through, proportionally speaking, the worst budget deficit in the U.S. and the methodology underlying Nevada’s general fund is incredibly flawed, other industries will be allowed to continue shirk their share of the load.

How do we know this? Because invertebrate gubernatorial wannabe Barbara Buckley (D-[Your logo here]) flat-out won’t support a corporate income tax. Which might be all right if she had a viable alternative, other than a pie-in-the-sky suggestion that Nevada diversify its economy.

Heck, people more serious than Buckley have been calling for such diversification for years and it still hasn’t happened (in part because the wretched state of Nevada education — about to get worse — scares companies away). And it’s sure as shooting not going to magically happen in the scant few weeks the Lege has to cobble together something resembling a budget.

Sales taxes and gaming taxes each represent roughly a third of the state’s revenue base. The former is regressive both by definition and in practice, while the latter discriminates heavily against one industry, while letting all others pretty much off the hook. For instance, the state’s two most lucrative mines paid $13.3 million in taxes to Nevada in all of 2007 — on $436 million in taxable revenues. Casinos, however, paid $65 million in taxes on $840 million in revenue last February alone.

Were Nevada’s gaming industry not in freefall, that disparity would be more glaring still. But Silver State solons would rather jam hot needles into their eyes than ask the sacrosanct extractive industries for one thin dime more. (Boy, they’ll be sorry when those mines are tapped out.)

Heck, our legal brothels have actually offered to be taxed but our maidenly lawmakers demurely proclaimed, “No, no, a thousand times, no! You cannot buy my caress.” How come? It would create — get this — image problems for a state that got on the map as the divorce capitol of America. Prostitutes are showing themselves more civic-minded that our ostensible “leadership” … but the profession known as prostitution has always been considerably more honest than the prostitution known as politics.

Given the ramshackle history of Nevada’s tax structure and some hints dropped by Buckley and crony Morse “Moose” Arberry, we’ve got a pretty good idea of what to expect from their Secret Budget Plan (under wraps until next month): More of the same. As in higher sales taxes, state fees … and, yes, gaming taxes. Steve Wynn‘s warning about the catastrophic effect of the latter is apparently going to fall upon deaf legislative ears. Wynn’s said he’s “the most powerful man in Nevada.” Now would be a good time to prove it.

On another note …

God forbid, you need to answer the call of nature during the playing of a mediocre Irving Berlin song, at least when you’re at Yankee Stadium. Support freedom — or else! That good old George Steinbrenner spirit remains alive and well, I see.

Posted in Baseball, Economy, Politics, Steve Wynn, Taxes | Comments Off on Grab your ankles, casinos

Quote of the Day

“I say I would greet him if he would rectify the record. I think he owes it to us, and I say that respectfully, to say Las Vegas is a great place to come and do business.” — Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, outlining preconditions under which would deign to receive the President of the United States.

Posted in Current, Downtown, Economy, Politics | Comments Off on Quote of the Day

Texas afterthoughts

My apologies for leaving regular readers high and dry on Thursday. I was KO'd by a viral infection of some sort. Between that and a couple of doses of Zicam, I spent most of the day drifting in and out of sleep. Amazingly, I managed to stay awake through the early part of a Dodgers/Padres game in which neither starting pitcher could find the strike zone with two hands and a flashlight (the first two innings took an hour to play), only to doze off as things became — moderately — interesting and each team overcame its aversion to scoring runs.

Wednesday's report on Sheldon Adelson's surprise appearance in Austin, prompted this reader reaction, posted here because it was devoured by LVA's Comment-Eating Server: Regarding Texas and Casino Gaming: IMO the reason North Texas and Oklahoma are so closely linked is because Texas  has strong beer and strong porn, and Oklahoma has Casino Gaming, and both sides are more OK with it than they want to admit.

Having taken note of Adelson's Texas peregrination, the Las Vegas Review-Journal said to Las Vegas Sands, in effect, "Show me the money!" (Adelson is promising to spend $2 billion-plus on a Dallas-area casino.) The company's response was that its current troubles "wouldn't impair its ability to invest in Texas, in large part because even if gambling is legalized there licenses wouldn't be up for grabs until at least March 2011."

So is Sands promising to have its financial house in order 23 months from now? We'll take that as a "Yes." (Don't forget that Adelson is also courting Massachusetts legislators in hopes of landing a casino deal in his native state.)

The Dallas Morning News, to its credit, did a little number crunching and — at the end of its story — poked a big hole in the revenue projections being made by Texas casino proponents. In essence, they're promising 3X-4.5X the amount of casino-tax lucre that Nevada pulls in, with only double the tax rate and a tiny fraction as many casinos. Uh-huh.

Then again, the poster boy for a Lone Star casino industry is the man who once crowed, "We could build 10 Las Vegas Strips over here [in Asia], there’s so much demand!" How's that working out?

Posted in Baseball, Massachusetts, Sheldon Adelson, Taxes, Texas | Comments Off on Texas afterthoughts

A delicate balance

Another day, a little more movement in the CityCenter situation. Well, it's that or talk about tourism and gaming revenue numbers that are too depressing to contemplate for long.

Time was that the American banking industry was practically giving away money, not requiring MGM Mirage to pledge assets for collateral. Lucky for MGM, lucky for us, not so lucky for the banks. That's going to change and Liz Benston delineates the tightrope that MGM will have to navigate to keep both banks and bondholders happy — a delicate balancing act indeed. The one casino MGM can neither unload nor borrow against is New York-New York, presently encumbered with three-quarters of a billion dollars' worth of junk bonds.

Meanwhile, James Packer continues his CityCenter softshoe routine. According to Bloomberg (see sidebar), while Crown Ltd. may not be talking to MGM or Dubai World directly, it's reported to be exchanging notes in study hall with Colony Capital … hence the carefully couched denials Crown issued last weekend. Since Colony will be merely lending to MGM, not investing (assuming negotiations bear fruit), that'll spare the fund from having any uncomfortable chats with Station Casinos, which has near-Strip aspirations of its own. Besides, if MGM defaults, God forbid, Colony might find itself with a gem like Slots A Fun or maybe even Circus Circus, and could whistle Station in to run it.

The terms of the alleged deal — $750 million toward debt structuring — more than suggest that MGM has given up on any getting any more dinero out of Dubai World. If it can "clear waivers" with its lenders, it looks as though MGM's preparing to shoulder the next $800 million worth of CityCenter costs by its lonesome. Another bit of good news for Kirk Kerkorian's company is that Deutsche Bank analyst Bill Lerner has revised the EBITDA estimates of Beau Rivage and MGM Grand Detroit up a bit. Lerner's new numbers would bring the theoretical asking prices (using 7X cash flow as a baseline) to $715 million and $940 million, respectively. The question of how anybody not named Penn National is going to persuade lenders to underwrite such a deal is still begged, though.

I wonder if Barbara Cappaert of KDP Investments ever tires of having to be the one to point out the elephant in the middle of the room, namely that MGM is pawning tomorrow to pay for today. That $235 million-plus in annual Biloxi/Detroit cash flow is going to be sorely missed.

If anybody ever writes the history of the casino-hotel currently known as the Greek Isles, it'll only have one chapter … Chapter 11. The Isles has known many incarnations but it always seems to find its way back to bankruptcy court sooner or later (usually sooner). It's eked out a marginal existence for such a long time that perhaps the casino evolutionary process needs to "select out" the Greek Isles, which occupies a forlorn backwater between the Convention Center and the Strip.

Anyway, if you enjoy bankruptcy filings, this one should keep you busy. Since the Isles is more of a slot-route outpost than a casino, the alphabet soup of ownership groups is of debatable relevance to its gambling operations, though. Will the last person to leave the Greek Isles please turn out the lights.

For Rent: One blimp, slightly used. Gets 2.1 MPG. Annual operating cost $1.1 million. Your logo here.

Posted in Colony Capital, Current, Detroit, Economy, James Packer, M Resort, MGM Mirage, Penn National, Station Casinos, The Strip, Wall Street | Comments Off on A delicate balance

The (real) Bridge of Sighs

… and if you look closely you can see Venetian Macao executives loyal to Brad Stone being led off to suffocate in the piombi or drown in the pozzi. OK, so I totally made that last part up; too many hearings of Ponchielli‘s La Gioconda will have that effect.

Posted in Architecture, Sheldon Adelson | Comments Off on The (real) Bridge of Sighs

‘Golden’ customer service

Kudos to Mark Brandenburg, the managing partner of the Golden Gate. His frequent on-site presence and accessibility to guests really brightened the experience of some recent Vegas visitors. They’d had multiple bad experiences at Binion’s Gambling Hall and the Four Queens. (So much for the new service ethic that Terry Caudill supposedly brought when he purchased those Downtown institutions.) By contrast, their stay at the Gate was distinguished by good customer service, and by Brandenburg’s gracious and good-humored interventions on their behalf.

They also give the Gate praise for its ginormous Cobb salad — haven’t tried it myself, but maybe I should — among other gustatory pleasures. (Could it be bigger than the Peppermill‘s banana split? That thing’s the size of Palazzo.) There was less praise for other Downtown casino restaurants, including one that served what is described as shoe leather masquerading as fish.

Back when I profiled it for Casino Executive Magazine (R.I.P.), the Golden Gate was by far the most charming of the Downtown casinos. I’m glad to hear that, in this age  of mega- and meta-, the “small is beautiful” mindset is still paying dividends. If you want to see “old” Vegas in the truest and best sense of the term, it’s the place to go.

Posted in Dining, Downtown | Comments Off on ‘Golden’ customer service

MGM Mirage sells family jewels

Desperation has well and truly hit the fan at MGM Mirage. The company’s Strip casinos may not be priced to move … but it’s said to be quite a different story where MGM Grand Detroit and Beau Rivage are concerned. (A Bloomberg report implies that Gold Strike in Tunica may be on the table, too.)

How desperate? We’re talking about sacrificing $231 million in cash flow (in a down year) to keep CityCenter alive. Outside of Vegas, all the company would retain would be “halfsies” of Borgata, MGM Grand Macau and the Grand Victoria riverboat in Elgin, Il. We’d by definition be talking about considerably increasing MGM’s Vegas exposure, especially since CityCenter would — one hopes — be mostly open for business by the time these potential sales cleared the regulatory process.

Strategically, it stinks. MGM would be putting nearly every chip it has on the Strip. At a time when Continue reading

Posted in Atlantic City, Colony Capital, Current, Detroit, Economy, Illinois, James Packer, Macau, MGM Mirage, Phil Ruffin, Sheldon Adelson, Stanley Ho, The Strip, Wall Street | Comments Off on MGM Mirage sells family jewels

Mandalay Bay is best in LV

It may be tempting fate to mention this, but online voters like Mandalay Bay best among Strip casinos … or, at bare minimum, dislike it the least. Voters in the Steve Friess "Stripper Poll" on which casino most ought to be imploded have cast nary a ballot against the big place with the Komodo Dragon (seen giving rival casinos a Bronx cheer). As for the winners/losers of this ignominious race, Tropicana Las Vegas still holds the lead but only 16 votes separate its first-place status from the fourth-place spot held by Imperial Palace. "Impotent Palace," look to thy laurels!

Baseball season: Six months of alternating paradise and torment — paid out in 162 increments — begin today. This Los Angeles Angels fan is at best guardedly optimistic, seeing how the team continues to accrue one-dimensional sluggers, tubby Bobby Abreu being the latest specimen. Also, with our three top-shelf pitchers on the … well, on the shelf for time being, the starting rotation is the weakest it's been since 2003.

Now with two of the best Angels of recent memory, Garret Anderson and Casey Kotchman, playing for the Atlanta Braves, I'm actually going to have to start thinking positive thoughts about the Braves, if not of their tiresome manager, Bobby Cox, whose incessant petulance wore out its welcome, oh, around 1991.

Posted in Baseball, Harrah's, MGM Mirage, The Strip, Tropicana Entertainment | Comments Off on Mandalay Bay is best in LV

Case Bets: Kansas update, Cordish's push, Penn's prudence, taxing sex

Details of Lakes Entertainment‘s just-under-the-wire entry into the Kansas casino derby are beginning to emerge — and it looks a bit half-assed. Particularly non-confidence-inspiring was the admission, “We’re going to go find the cash.” If somebody as flush as Phil Ruffin can’t scare up $175 million, what makes Lakes confident it can score $260 million? Demote this bid from “contender” to “also-ran” status.

Another Kansas applicant also is moving aggressively elsewhere. Cordish Co. is looking to snap up three tracks owned by bankrupt Magna Entertainment. Racino conversion, though is not on the agenda, according to Cordish.

No fools. It looks as though Penn National has sworn off the Strip and small wonder. If execs at Harrah’s Entertainment or MGM Mirage say they want to deal but insist on 10X-12X cash flow as their asking price, they’re not going to find takers. I presume that their rationale — and it’s hardly without merit — is that if business returns to the levels it enjoyed four years ago those multiples will go down.

Whether that argument will fall upon receptive ears seems unlikely. But look on the bright side: You could pay 12 times EBITDA for the Tropicana Las Vegas and it would still only cost you $54 million.

Five bucks a f**k? Sure prostitution is legal in 10 counties of Nevada, a state whose economy is built on the perception of an anything-goes atmosphere. But tax bordellos by the lay? Horrors!

Posted in Cordish Co., Harrah's, Horseracing, Kansas, MGM Mirage, Taxes, Tropicana Entertainment | Comments Off on Case Bets: Kansas update, Cordish's push, Penn's prudence, taxing sex

Leper Colony

Or, in lieu of "Atlantic City Death Watch VII," maybe "Colony Death Watch." Scarcely had S&G dubbed Colony Capital's East Coast casino portfolio "Colony Crapital" than came affirmation in the form of the latest set of numbers from the Boardwalk.

First, the good news. Everyone in Atlantic City reported a profitable operating margin last year as well as a gross operating profit. As the Press of Atlantic City explains, "Net income, however, is not considered as important as gross operating profit, which is seen as the best way to measure a casino’s financial strength."

For instance, Harrah's Entertainment had the two best operating margins in the city (at Caesars A.C. and Harrah's Marina) and four of the top five. In gross operating profit, the Harrah's-owned quartet held the #2-3 and #6 spots, bested only by Borgata (#1, of course) and Trump Taj Mahal. However, thanks to some accounting jiggery-pokery back at corporate HQ, all four posted year-end losses — some of them gargantuan, like the -$355 million charged against Caesars. Only Boyd Gaming's Borgata reported a profitable 2008. In terms of revenue, it was so far ahead of everybody else — by $280 million — it's not even funny.

For Harrah's Marina, the good news was triplefold. Not only did it have the smallest diminution of gross operating profit (-1%), it was also the sole casino to record an increase — 8.5% — in revenue.

Harrah's operational skill aside, UNLV's David Schwartz found another silver lining. To wit, "I’m surprised that gross gaming revenues fell by only 7.1%. For all of the belly-aching about the partial smoking ban and competition from Pennsylvania, Atlantic City’s gaming win actually declined less than Nevada’s, which shrank by about 10%. People are still willing to come to Atlantic City; they are just gambling less." [Emphasis added.]

Now for the bad news. The two lepers in the A.C. colony are — you guessed it — Resorts Atlantic City and the Hilton. Those two Colony Capital casinos posted extraordinarily dismal numbers, even by last year's low standards. Their operating profit margins were less than 2%, against a market average of 21%, and their gross operating profit was $6.3 million … combined. In a year when the average Atlantic City casino saw a gross operating profits fall 25%, Colony's duo crash-dove -88% and -89%, respectively.

Compare this to Trump Marina. Even in a semi-orphaned state, as its sale dragged on (and on), the future Margaritaville garnered superior operating profit margin — 7.5% — and a far bigger operating profit on the smallest revenue base in the market. It reported gross operating profit of $15 million on revenues of $195 million. Somebody's doing something right and it's not Colony's Atlantic City braintrust.

Does Colony know how to pick 'em or what? And is MGM Mirage sure it wants to get into bed with these guys? They're starting to make James Packer look like a sagacious casino mogul. As for the Hilton, which used to be Steve Wynn's Atlantic City Golden Nugget, suffice to say it's seen better days.

Posted in Atlantic City, Boyd Gaming, Colony Capital, Donald Trump, Economy, Harrah's, James Packer, MGM Mirage, Steve Wynn | Comments Off on Leper Colony

Case Bets: Station Casinos, CityCenter, Pittsburgh, James Packer

Credit-default swaps, some of those financial instruments that have played hob with the U.S. economy, are making a cameo appearance in the tortured saga of Station Casinos. If you insured Station's debt, that insurance is worth more than the paper your CDS is printed upon — but not by much.

Congratulations, MGM Mirage. Your probable rescuer is a bottom-feeder who's preparing to root around amidst the dregs of the banking industry. However, with CityCenter as much as $3.8 billion shy of the finish line, MGM isn't in a position be picky about going into business with the K-Mart of casino owners.

Rivers Casino, the former Majestic Star, has some CityCenter-style construction problems. This project has been so vexed and hexed that nothing comes as a surprise anymore.

Interesting business model. Halfway around the globe, Melco Crown Entertainment's got a lot riding on its City of Dreams megaresort. To bring back the whales, it's essentially promising that they can welsh on their markers with impunity. Or, as the company puts it, "Aggressive enforcement actions against a customer [may] unduly alienate the customer and cause the customer to cease playing at our casinos." And, gosh knows, nobody wants to alienate a deadbeat debtor.

Posted in Colony Capital, Don Barden, James Packer, Lawrence Ho, Macau, Melco Crown Entertainment, MGM Mirage, Neil Bluhm, Pennsylvania, Station Casinos, Wall Street | Comments Off on Case Bets: Station Casinos, CityCenter, Pittsburgh, James Packer

Adelson in the details

Nearly lost amidst a flurry of news stories about Las Vegas Sands hoping to jump-start construction on its stalled Cotai Strip™ (with the help of new equity partners) was this snippet from Sands' president of Asian affairs, Stephen Weaver. Rents at the Marina Bay Sands shopping mall, still under construction in Singapore, are being “pulled down to adjust to the market.”

Lower projected rents? Just one more reason to curb the irrational exuberance with which some Wall Street analysts view this $5.4 billion project.

Under the radar: Remember how Columbia Sussex told the New Jersey Casino Control Commission, in effect, "put it on our tab," when hit with a $750,000 fine? ColSux's original plan was to just have the NJCCC skim the 750 large off the top of whatever it got from selling the Tropicana Atlantic City.

However, the NJCCC informs me that ColSux affiliate Adamar settled up with the state a ways back. Bravo to them. Besides, if Carl Icahn wins the Trop with a credit bid, the casino will change hands but no money will. So much for the windfall everyone was anticipating a year ago.

Posted in Atlantic City, Carl Icahn, Columbia Sussex, Macau, Regulation, Sheldon Adelson, Singapore, Wall Street | Comments Off on Adelson in the details

Case Bets: Station Casinos, CityCenter, Pittsburgh, James Packer

Credit-default swaps, some of those financial instruments that have played hob with the U.S. economy, are making a cameo appearance in the tortured saga of Station Casinos. If you insured Station’s debt, that insurance is worth more than the paper your CDS is printed upon — but not by much.

Congratulations, MGM Mirage. Your probable rescuer is a bottom-feeder who’s preparing to root around amidst the dregs of the banking industry. However, with CityCenter as much as $3.8 billion shy of the finish line, MGM isn’t in a position be picky about going into business with the K-Mart of casino owners.

Rivers Casino, the former Majestic Star, has some CityCenter-style construction problems. This project has been so vexed and hexed that nothing comes as a surprise anymore.

Interesting business model. Halfway around the globe, Melco Crown Entertainment‘s got a lot riding on its City of Dreams megaresort. To bring back the whales, it’s essentially promising that they can welsh on their markers with impunity. Or, as the company puts it, “Aggressive enforcement actions against a customer [may] unduly alienate the customer and cause the customer to cease playing at our casinos.” And, gosh knows, nobody wants to alienate a deadbeat debtor.

Posted in Colony Capital, Don Barden, James Packer, Lawrence Ho, Macau, Melco Crown Entertainment, MGM Mirage, Neil Bluhm, Pennsylvania, Station Casinos, Wall Street | Comments Off on Case Bets: Station Casinos, CityCenter, Pittsburgh, James Packer