Penn a solid bet; New Year’s Eve in Vegas could be better

Penn National Gaming got a rave review from J.P. Morgan gaming analyst Joseph Greff, who wrote that ” we continue to believe PENN offers a favorable risk/reward with an attractive valuation.” Strong fundamentals in the regional-gaming sphere were cited, as were better weather and deleveraging made possible by a sale of the Tropicana Las Vegas. Plainridge Park “continues to experience competition/promotional pressure” from Encore Boston Harbor, with a 14% revenue decline in this quarter predicted, slightly offset by gains in Ohio. “Looking further out, the regional gaming consumer remains healthy, supported by a strong macro environment (wage growth, employment, consumer confidence all pointing in the right direction).”

Both synergies from the Pinnacle Entertainment acquisition and same-store efficiency improvements are expected to drive improved profit margins, as well as “a focus on more efficient marketing/profitable visitation, and a rational promotional environment.” Unprofitable visits from the “lower-worth segment” continues to decline from 22% to 15% of business, looking to go even lower.

* Bad news for the Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Bureau: Sin City is ranked only third by WalletHub for the best places in which to spend New Year’s Eve. This is in spite of coming in first in terms of “nightlife options per capita” and legality of fireworks. It’s also tops in music venues for capita. But … Las Vegas is a lowly 55th for walkability and 39th in average price of a New Year’s Eve party ticket. And we’re just ninth in New Year’s Eve events per capita? Somebody’s got to work on that. On the plus side, restaurants per capita are fourth in the U.S. and luxury-shopping options are sixth. That number-one spot is not out of reach.

* “Integrity fees” (read: payola) have long been sought by major league sports in return for their complaisance in sports betting. Missouri might actually cave in and give it to them. Two bills filed with the Lege have provisions for bribes, er, integrity fees. Leagues would get 25 cents on every $100 wagered, in a bill authored by state Sen. Denny Hoskins (R, pictured). He’d tax sports betting revenues at 9%, plus an upfront fee of $25,000 plus another 25 grand to offer mobile wagering. A rival bill by state Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer (R) would reduce those upfront fees to 10 dimes apiece. His tax rate would be 6.25% but the integrity fee would be three times as great. The gaming industry is expected to oppose the fees, not least because they are levied on handle, further eroding the slim profit margin offered by sports betting.

* Just you wait: If randy Steve Wynn evades discipline at the hands of the Nevada Gaming Control Board, look for him to try and sneak back into the Nevada casino industry. Even so, his attorneys are contending that El Steve is above the law by dint of the fact that he’s not presently involved with the Silver State’s signature industry. Or, to use the fancy legalese, the “legislature’s definition of suitability has no nexus to the person’s temporal connection to a particular license … As Mr. Wynn’s Motion established, grammar and tense matter, particularly in a penal setting where potential revocations and fines are at stake.” A Nevada Gaming Commission showdown is scheduled for Dec. 19.

* Waiting for casinos in Japan is only slightly less long-term of a project than dancing attendance upon Mr. Godot. However, Global Market Advisors‘ Brendan D. Bussmann is full of optimism for 2020, which he predicts will be “a very robust year.” (Given the lack of progress to date, any action would have to be called “robust.”) Yokohama and Nagasaki will make requests for concepts whilst other cities, further back in the process, will issue requests for information. The Diet will be preoccupied with the formation of the Casino Administration Commission, which will be preside over the nascent industry. Actual casino approvals are not expected until 2021. The Japanese race is definitively for those who set store by the fable of the tortoise and the hare.