Atlantic City may have seen the last of Glenn Straub. Last week, Global Gaming Business Editor Roger Gros took to Twitter to announce that
Revel (aka Ten) had been sold, former exec Mark Juliano — late of Sands Bethlehem — would return to the helm and it would reopen as a casino … something that was far from certain under Straub’s mercurial ownership. If true, this news would explain Juliano’s sudden departure from Las Vegas Sands. So far that seems to be the only report to date on what would a pretty radical piece of news along the Boardwalk. Could the alleged buyer be that mystery private-equity firm that Straub denies having met? Only PR firm Digital Launch knows for sure and they’re not talking other than to say it’s a hospitality company that would (unlike Straub) apply for a gaming license.
Channeling his inner Donald Trump, Straub has called the rumored purchase offer “fake news,” going on to say, “There’s no way anybody offers 220 [million dollars] and we would laugh in their face in 15 seconds after they’d do it.” We fail to see the humor, as $220 million would constitute a considerable markup on a
resort property that Straub picked up for a mere $82 million. So either he’s right and this is all hot air or he’s negotiating through the media — which wouldn’t be a first for Straub. But he’s no closer to opening Ten than he was at the start of the year, shows no sign of getting it done soon, and has exhausted the patience of Gov. Chris Christie (R) and many in Atlantic City. So if there’s $220 million on the table, Straub ought to take it and split, although it’s too late to repair the image of him as all hat and no cattle.
The prospect of a revitalized Revel/Ten/[your brand here] along with a Hard Rock Atlantic City is fueling fears of cannibalization, just as the Boardwalk has been rightsized and a market correction has borne fruit. Even the casino-less Showboat is said to be “performing well” under
‘s ownership. (Could Blatstein be behind the Revel chatter? His desire for a Philadelphia casino was thwarted.) Also, we don’t know what MGM Resorts International and Caesars Entertainment are cooking up for their vacant Marina District acreage. However, all the new investment in Atlantic City — especially that of Hard Rock (which has stolen all of Straub’s thunder) — would have been unthinkable even a year ago.
* While Pennsylvania casinos have reached the point of inelasticity in slot revenue (hence the folly of adding slot routes statewide), table games are helping to make up for it, riding a seven-year upward curve
in revenue. For fiscal year 2016-17, they rose 3%. Some speculate that players are gravitating toward the tables as they’re a “better bargain,” due to the lower house edge. If that’s the case, casinos are crying all the way to the bank twice over: They’re making more money and it’s taxed at a far lower rate than slots. For the player, Pennsylvania is an attractive destination because casinos are mandated to only offer 3-2 blackjack, among other player-friendly rules. Speaking of which, what ails Keystone State craps winnings? They’ve declined to 10% of table games winnings. Interestingly, roulette’s share of revenue is directly proportional to the amount of floor space devoted to the game.
* While we’re on the subject of table games, Wynn Palace got taken to the cleaners by junketing VIPs whose lucky play cost the casino $10
million in losses. CEO Steve Wynn called it “the most unique statistical anomaly in my 50 years of doing this,” especially since it took place in a month of “enormous volume.” University of Denver Professor of Risk & Gaming (!) Robert Hannum confirmed Wynn’s diagnosis, telling Bloomberg, “The odds are astronomically high. Of course, black swans do occur and some might say that anything can happen in the casino business.” Wynn hasn’t been the only casino mogul to lose his shirt in Macao this year: One exceptionally fortunate player helped Sheldon Adelson‘s Parisian slide as much as $15 million last January.
Melco Resorts & Entertainment, by contrast, had good news for its shareholders, reporting an 18.5% increase in 2Q17 profits, $36.5 million. Lawrence Ho‘s company will also be able to restart
construction on its Morpheus casino-hotel after a short suspension of work, due to a fatal accident on the site. Similar adversity has kept Sociedade de Jogos de Macau‘s Cotai Strip™ megaresort in mothballs for six weeks. Ho is targeting reliable, cash-and-carry VIP players rather than junketing, credit-fueled VIP ones for Morpheus, which will be allowed 50 gaming tables by City Hall. Despite, among others things, dramatic improvements at Studio City, three Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. analysts wrote, “the two consecutive quarters of subpar mass performance in Macau is a concern.”
Fortunately for Melco and other Macanese operators, gaming revenues came roaring back last month, up 29%. There were still some Debbie
Downers on Wall Street, among them JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff, who wrote, “we think it fell short of the low 30% year-over-year growth expectations,” attributing most of the strength to VIP play. “While this may be an old way of thinking about risk associated with high levels of growth,” he mused, “we have to wonder that if this level, or even lower levels, of [VIP] growth, is sustainable, does the government want to recalibrate policy to bring this growth rate down? It’s possible, but we have no conviction here, and for this reason, our confidence in the sustainability of these types of … growth rates is low.” Analysts seem to be in agreement that increases in gaming revenue will soon be much less dramatic, the market having passed the anniversary of its low point.
* Bearding the lion in its den, Rivers Casino of Schenectady is aggressively advertising at Saratoga Race Course. It’s even offering free shuttle service from Spa City to Rivers. Saratoga Casino Hotel is feeling the effects: It has gone from being a $3 million-a-week performer in preceding Julys to hitting that mark only once this year, more often languishing in the mid-$2 millions. Rivers’ numbers, by comparison, continue to improve from week to week.
