I've been checking Intrade's election "futures" markets and, if you "buy" Sen. John McCain at 9.9 you could collect on the longshot of a lifetime. (I'm of the pessimistic "I'll believe an Obama win when I see it and not one second before" persuasion.) Unless, that is, you want to go waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay out an Aleutians-length limb and buy Ted Stevens "futures" (which is an ironic term, seeing as Sen. Stevens appears to have no future whatsoever — at least none that don't involve a long series of numbers across his back).
I notice that Intrade's odds have reversed on the Al Franken/Sen. Norm Coleman slugfest in Minnesota, while the trends in all the other ones I profiled last week have solidified. (Reform Party candidate Dean Barkley is a respected figure and has made a robust showing in the polls but is doomed to be an also-ran yet again.)
So I see no reason to amend my prediction: Dems gain six seats, for a total of 55 (plus Bernie Sanders), but Coleman comes from behind late in the fourth quarter to prevent further GOP erosion.
Forget Tim Pawlenty; if Coleman pulls this out I expect him to be the Minnesotan to start showing up on the futures markets as a contender for 2012.
Eighteen months later … Believe it or not, it's been 18 months since Michelle Obama made her first campaign visit to Nevada. Yours truly was detailed to cover that June '07 stump speech — actually more of a marketing effort to raise people's comfort level with the Obama "brand" — which I sandwiched between CineVegas screenings. So how does today's visit compare to what seems like 18 years ago?
