Solution in search of a problem; Trump causes Macao jitters

As it its civic duty, Plainridge Park racino pays into the local Community Mitigation Fund. Now it’s being ill-repaid by Norfolk District Attorney Michael Morrissey, who wants 75 dimes of CMF money to investigate crimes his office says are “stemming directly” from Plainridge Park. Trouble is, the Massachusetts Gaming Commission has already investigated the matter and found a decrease in crime around the rasino. Morrissey even admits he’s going on hearsay and the 75 Gs are to help him scare up some real evidence.

That’s the key word: scare. Morrissey is engaging in the kind of fear mongering that casino developers know only too well. So maybe he should be seeking money to prosecute actual crimes instead of chasing phantoms. Plainridge Park, by the way, is coming of its best month in over year and a half, grossing $14 million, 7.5% over last year. That’s $381/per slot/per day, far above industry average, making Plainridge Park one of Penn National Gaming‘s two top performers.

* “Fake news” is such a catchy new term that Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli couldn’t stop himself from using it to disparage an Orient Daily story. The paper’s offense was to report remarks by regulator Martins Chan that existing Macao casino concessions wouldn’t simply roll over but would be subject to a bidding process. “The comments, if accurate, would have been a material deviation from what was expected to be a relatively seamless renewal process and accordingly, has caused considerable confusion. While we would not bless the accuracy of the article, we do believe a bid style process would be challenging for the operators and would create meaningful uncertainty for the stocks. That said, we believe this is likely a misinterpretation of the Director’s remarks or an issue with translation,” wrote Santarelli.

Methinks he doth protest too much. Both the Beijing and Macanese governments like nothing more than keeping casino operators off-balance and, even if said only for effect, Chan’s remark will ensure that casino bosses are on their best behavior going forward. MGM Resorts International shareholders can sleep well but stockholders of Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts may lose a few winks just thinking about their companies’ heavy exposure to Macao market, which can make or break a quarter.

Besides, there’s a wild card in the form of Donald Trump. Gaming-law expert I. Nelson Rose told his Macanese students that the enclave could suffer ‘collateral damage’ from deteriorating Sino-American relations. In a presentation that made the front page of the Macau Times, Rose posed the question, “The Impact of the U.S. Election on Tourism, Trade and Possibly World War III.” OK, maybe that’s not quite a question but Rose asked, “If there is a trade war, will it mean visa restrictions on Chinese [are] re-imposed?” China could retaliate by targeting the U.S. in two places where it really hurts: Las Vegas tourism and Macao casinos. Steve Wynn and Sheldon Adelson are high-profile Trump supporters and would make inviting targets of opportunity for a Chinese backlash.

The central government could also roll back a 2004 policy that allows its citizens to travel as individuals, not as members of junkets. “By far they are the largest number and spenders of any country in the world – not even counting Hong Kong which is now 10th on the list of world spenders,” Rose explained. Besides, Las Vegas makes 1.5 times as much off baccarat as from blackjack despite blackjack tables outnumbering baccarat nine to one.

And as if this cascade of bad news weren’t enough, attorney Sérgio de Almeida Correia called for an end to the sub-concessionare system, saying it “creates conflicts of interests and other corrupt practices.” Instead, he would have the three sub concessionaires elevated to full concession status, which might bring some governmental review with it but is hardly the end of the world.

* It took forever and a day but Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) and the Tohono O’odham Nation finally reached an accord on casino gambling in the Phoenix area. The T-Os have to cede relatively little: namely the prerogative to build any other casinos in the metro area. In return, the Ducey administration abandons its futile attempt to obtain victory in the court system. Desert Diamond West Valley now gets to add full-blown slot machines (it had been operating with electronic bingo), plus blackjack and other, unspecified table games.

“I am eager to continue meeting with gaming tribes to discuss how we can modernize the tribal-state gaming compacts and create positive economic opportunities for all Arizonans,” said Ducey in a shit-eating formal statement. The Trump administration could still throw a monkey wrench into the peace pact if the Interior Department doesn’t go along with it. Also, the hypocritically titled “Keep the Promise Act” is still on life support in Congress. One hopes that Sens. Jeff Flake (R) and John McCain (R) see reason and unplug the feeding tubes on that monstrosity.

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