Gaming revenues were down 12% last month in Massachusetts, despite the advantage of an extra weekend. Casinos grossed $69 million, operating at two-thirds capacity. Encore Boston Harbor did the best, off 10% for $41 million. Slot win was up 6% on 10% greater handle, while tables grossed $17.5 million or $3,943/win/table/day. MGM Springfield actually had a better-than-usual month at the tables, averaging $1,071/win/table/day for $4 million, a 39% upsurge. Boy, was luck with the house. MGM slots were a subpar $171/win/slot/day, an 8% decline to $13.5 million, which translated into a 17.5% drop-off in revenue. Plainridge Park brought up the rear with $10 million, down 10% and undoubtedly helped by an above-average $271/win/slot/day (compared to $302/day last October) with handle down 6%. Wall Street can jawbone all it likes about “pent-up demand.” What we’re not seeing is pent-up money.
JP Morgan analyst Daniel Politzer held a virtual meeting with Churchill Downs execs and came away convinced of a “structural industry shift” in horse betting. CHDN’s Twin Spires online subsidiary reflected overall industry trends, in which 64% of 3Q20 wagers were placed online, down from 75% during the woebegone second quarter but up from pre-pandemic levels of 40%. “For the aggregate 2Q/3Q (accounts for Derby shift), total horse wagers declined 3.6% y/y, with online wagers up 65% y/y and retail wagers down 50% y/y.” The company views itself as a nascent i-gaming/sports-betting provider due to technical setbacks that led to a switch of service providers. Also, “management didn’t (and still has not) seen data suggesting that current levels of customer acquisition spend will yield a reasonable level of profit.” Added Politzer, “If management is unable to scale their sports betting business, and believes others will be able to do more with it than CHDN can,” it will fall on a grenade for the shareholders. This is the first such trepidation we’ve seen in the online sports-wagering space.
Thinking that this year’s Labor Day weekend Kentucky Derby “got lost” in a plethora of competing sports, management is focusing on returning the Run for the Roses to the first weekend of May. That should result in better wagers/better horses. Current plans are for 40%-50% seating, to maintain social distancing but “the possibility for additional reserved seats and general admission tickets will depend on what the virus looks like in the spring and the availability/efficacy of therapeutics.” Finally, if you’re missing some of the niceties that characterized Churchill Downs properties pre-pandemic, don’t get your hopes up. The green-eyeshade types have discovered that regional-casino performance isn’t affected as much by whether or not there’s a buffet, for instance. Fewer amenities means higher margins, so expect a somewhat more spartan Churchill Downs experience.
