“The Paddy Factor”

(For film buffs: “The Paddy Factor” was the working title of what became the classic gangster movie, The Long Good Friday … and the rest was history.)

A new “Paddy factor” got flung into the Vegas equation this week when the Las Vegas Review-Journal‘s Howard Stutz revealed that renowned sports-betting franchise Paddy Power was looking to ocean-hop into a new territory: Nevada. Paddy Power is seeking a manufacturer’s license, for the purpose of getting into the mobile-gambling market.

This is either disingenuous or naive. The widespread use of such gizmos is now legal in Nevada, so there is a theoretical market opening for Paddy Power. But Cantor Gaming, beneficiary of the new law, already has a leg or two up on the market, and has spent the last six years currying favor and influence in Carson City. It’s also firmly entrenched at several major casinos, most notably at Venelazzo. To Cantor, a Paddy Power incursion will be about as welcome as IRA trigger men were in Harold Shand‘s “manor.” (Though if Cantor is Harold Shand, the movie will have a different ending this time.) For the bookmaker, which is currently taking wagers on the Dr. Conrad Murray trial, everything should hinge on whether it can substantiate its contention that it’s never accepted a bet from an American punter … and whether the financially strapped Nevada Gaming Control Board had the resources to thoroughly vet the firm. By the time Paddy Power’s application makes it to the top of the NGCB agenda, at least 15 months will have passed since the company’s Irish eyes smiled upon Nevada and the initial paperwork was filed.

Paddy prescience. To some extent, the “manufacturing” license is so much Kabuki theater. Or, as COO Breon Corcoran said, Paddy Power wanted to consider “a broad number of options.” The pot of gold at the end of that “optional” rainbow is, of course, Internet gambling. By applying as early as it did, just as the i-poker issue was really starting to simmer, Paddy Power has pipped its rivals to the post by several furlongs. Even 888 Holdings, with Caesars Entertainment vouching for it, hasn’t sought licensing in the Silver State. Several major operators — including MGM Resorts International and Wynn Resorts — have remained indifferent to Cantor’s allure. With one foot in sports wagering and another in the Internet, could Paddy Power flash the kind of green that would get those companies off the fence?

Brace for impact. Because the governor of Illinois, Pat Quinn (D), has demonstrated all the leadership ability of a bump on a log, casino operators can expect to get deluged with competition … if state Rep. Lou Lang‘s pet project ever makes it to Quinn’s desk. Occasionally Quinn has been known to mumble something about the bill being “top heavy” or not generating enough tax revenue, but his pushback could be generously described as “feeble.” Which means that the chances of five new casinos, plus multiple racinos and airport slot routes look much better than 50/50 and that the number of slot machines in the Land of Lincoln will expand more than threefold (3.27X, to be pedantic).

Legislators like state Sen. John Cullerton (pictured) are offering illusory ‘compromise’ that amounts to ditching a provision for slots at the state fairgrounds … a red-herring provision if ever I saw one: Distract people by stirring up a “family values” controversy in Springfield, then magnanimously “concede” whilst the other 95% of the stuff on your wish list is snuck in via the side door. It’s misdirection at its finest. And that 95% could be more like the whole enchilada since Cullerton’s grand compromise would simply reallocate the fairground’s share of gambling positions to new casinos and racinos.