Trop defies Atlantic City odds; Massachusetts underachieves

October was good for Atlantic City‘s new casinos, with the overall market up 8%, but bad for the incumbents, down 11.5%. Terrestrial gambling win totaled $200.5 million, with mixed messages all over the place. Slot win was up 5% but down 12% on a same-store basis (i.e., minus Hard Rock Atlantic City and Ocean Resort) while table game win was up 16% but down 10.5% same-store. Borgata ($51 million) fell 8% despite 12.5% higher table win on 11% lower wagering. The decline was driven by a 15.5% tailspin in slot win. The Caesars Entertainment portfolio tumbled 20%, with table win plummeting 30% on 18.5% less wagering — i.e., the house lost — while slot win toppled 15%. Nonetheless, Caesars gave the market a vote of confidence by announcing a $56 million renovation of star performer Harrah’s Resort.

Tropicana Atlantic City literally beat the odds, its gross gaming revenue up 2%, to $25 million. Of the newcomers, Hard Rock ($23 million) is still playing catch-up with the Trop and Ocean Resort clings to last place with ($13 million). It’s a cinch Bruce Deifik isn’t going to make his $292 million revenue target for Year One. (I’ll bet he wishes he hadn’t predicted he was going to surpass the Trop.) Aside from the Trop, older casinos reported varying degrees of woe. Harrah’s Resort fell 22%, to $24 million — still better than the Hard Rock — while Caesars Atlantic City was in a 21.5% funk, to $20 million, and Bally’s $14.5 million represented a 15% dive for the grind joint. Resorts Atlantic City stayed out of last place with $14 million (down 8%) while the Golden Nugget toppled 10% to $16 million. For the moment it looks like the Trop has the market figured out while everyone else is struggling. It hasn’t missed a step in the Tropicana Entertainment-to-Eldorado Resorts transition.

Sports wagering in the Garden State reached a cumulative $500 million last month, as New Jersey continues to flex its sports-betting muscles. The split was 67% mobile/33% walk-up. October handle was $261 million, of which books retained $11 million. To put matters in perspective, September handle in Nevada was $571 million. “World Series futures on the Boston Red Sox were paid out in October and favorites did well in the month, which is typically bad for sportsbooks. NFL futures bets in prior months could have inflated revenue, too, since they haven’t been paid out yet,” said analyst Dustin Gouker, explaining the low win. He added, “FanDuel Sportsbook is dominating the retail market and DraftKings continues to be the strength of the online market.” Remarked Credit Suisse analyst Cameron McKnight, “It’s still early days for sports betting in New Jersey, participants are yet to launch a full suite of products.” He did allow that the the aforementioned 67/33 split was “inline with mature markets like the UK and Australia.”

The number-one book was FanDuel’s at The Meadowlands ($1 million), followed in descending order by Monmouth Park (way down from a previous $2 million), Bally’s, Borgata (plunging from $2.5 million to $120,000 — chump change), Harrah’s Resort, Resorts Atlantic City, the Golden Nugget and the Trop, bringing up the rear with $15K. FanDuel also led mobile wagering, with almost $2.5 million, followed distantly by Monmouth Park, Ocean Resort, SugarHouse, Caesars and Borgata.

Internet gambling leapt 30%, year over year, grossing almost $27 million. This brings the cumulative tally within shouting distance of $1 billion by year’s end, led by innovator Tilman Fertitta. “After its slow start, few envisioned that the legal online gambling industry would reach $1 billion so quickly,” said columnist Steve Ruddock and we have to agree.

* JP Morgan‘s Joseph Greff has initiated coverage of the Massachusetts market and the news is not good. Penn National‘s Plainridge Park is flat at $13.5 million. Worse still for MGM Resorts International are the sequential comparisons on MGM Springfield. It did $27 million in September, only to fall to $22 million last month. Casinos in Connecticut may have less to fear than they thought.

* Penn bought Detroit‘s Greektown Casino this week and comes on the scene at a moment when the hotel-casino is finally playing a hot hand. It was up 6.5% last month, to $27.5 million. MotorCity was flat at $38.5 million while market leader MGM Grand Detroit gained 3% to $50 million. It seems unlikely that those rankings will ever change but we look forward to what an infusion of Penn management and database marketing can do for Greektown’s fortunes.

* Pennsylvania slot revenues were reported this week and Parx Casino widened its lead, up 2% to $32 million. Other strong performers were Sands Bethlehem ($22.5 million despite an 8% falloff) and Rivers Casino (up 3.5% to $22 million). At the bottom, Lady Luck(less) Nemacolin continues to spiral, down 18% to $2 million. Also-rans who gained ground included Presque Isle Downs, up 1.5% to $9.5 million, and SugarHouse, up 2.5% to almost $15 million, as well as Valley Forge Resort, up 3% to $7.5 million and looking like a very good investment for Boyd Gaming. Mount Airy was flat at $12 million and everyone else lost ground. That includes Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs, minus 6% to $15.5 million, Harrah’s Philadelphia, slipping 3% to $16 million, The Meadows, down 2% to $17 million, and Hollywood Casino at Penn National, falling 7% to $15 million. If you think the Pennsylvania market is saturated now, just wait until all those little satellite casinos start coming on line.

* Casino revenues in Louisiana sank 5% last month, mostly driven by a calamitous Baton Rouge market (-17.5%), where a smoking ban was recently enacted. Yet even powerhouse Lake Charles was down 6%. Only Shreveport/Bossier City held firm, flat with last year. Golden Nugget is now the pace car in Lake Charles, up 5.5% to $24.5 million. L’Auberge du Lac ceded 5% to $23 million, while Delta Downs stumbled 14.5% to $13 million and Isle Grand Palais sank 23.5% to $7 million. Nobody had it good in Baton Rouge but L’Auberge Baton Rouge (left) suffered least, down 12% to $11 million — heckuva time for Penn National to be taking the helm. Eldorado Resorts’ Belle of Baton Rouge plummeted 33% to $3 million and Casino Rouge plunged 21% to $4 million.

In New Orleans, the market was led by Harrah’s New Orleans with $22.5 million, despite a 9% drop-off. Boyd ceded 4% at Treasure Chest ($8 million) but all other casinos were gainers. Fair Grounds racino was up 4.5% to $3.5 million, Penn’s newly acquired Boomtown New Orleans notched $9 million, up 6.5%, and Boyd’s Amelia Belle was up 4.5% to $3.5 million. As for the Shreveport area, despite a 1.5% dip, Horseshoe Bossier City dominated with $14 million. Her strongest competitor was Margaritaville, up 5% to almost $12 million. The only other gainer was Eldorado Shreveport, up 2.5% to $9 million. Sam’s Town was flat at $5.5 million, and all other casinos and racinos posted single-digit declines.

* Kudos to Scientific Games, which is donating $25,000 to the Georgia Farm Bureau Foundation for Agriculture to help farmers adversely affected by Hurricane Michael. Scientific has close ties to the Peach State, its lottery headquarters being in Atlanta and SGMS being closely tied with the Georgia Lottery. Said Jim Kennedy, CEO of Scientific’s lottery division, “The farmers in Georgia are the backbone of the state where our global lottery headquarters and 1,200 employees are located, where we serve one of our biggest lottery customers, and where millions of players enjoy the games we have created over the last several decades. We want to support the recovery of one of the most important industries in Georgia following Hurricane Michael.” Well done, Scientific.