{"id":10430,"date":"2013-02-01T13:17:09","date_gmt":"2013-02-01T21:17:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/?p=10430"},"modified":"2013-02-01T13:17:09","modified_gmt":"2013-02-01T21:17:09","slug":"case-bets-super-bowl-wms-bally-wynn-penn-vs-mgm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/case-bets-super-bowl-wms-bally-wynn-penn-vs-mgm\/","title":{"rendered":"Case Bets: Super Bowl, WMS, Bally, Wynn, Penn vs. MGM"},"content":{"rendered":"

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“The twilight’s last reaming”?!?!? Christina Aguilera<\/strong> said it, I didn’t<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Of all the proposition bets being made on Sunday’s “Big Game” (the favored Vegas euphemism), my favorite is how long it will take<\/a> Alicia Keys<\/strong> to crawl through the National Anthem. Admittedly, Jennifer Hudson<\/strong>‘s Wagnerian 2:10<\/a>, at 2009’s Super Bowl<\/strong>, gives Keys a high bar to clear, although it would take a real speed demon to finish “The Star-Spangled Banner” in less than the U.S. Academy Choirs<\/strong>‘ sprinting 68 seconds in 2005<\/a> (not counting the reprise), while — at 95 seconds, last year’s<\/a> Kelly Clarkson<\/strong> rendition represents the Golden Mean.<\/p>\n

Wading through a blizzard<\/strong> of quarterly reports, J.P. Morgan<\/strong>‘s Joseph Greff<\/strong> wasn’t able to weigh in on the WMS Industries<\/strong> takeover by Scientific Games<\/strong> until today. “Cautious optimism” would describe his opinion, “cautious” being the operative word. After a sudden spike and \"\"steep plummet yesterday, Scientific stock has rallied a bit, while WMS continues to trundle happily along at just under $25\/share. Greff”s take is that Scientific caught WMS during a downswing in terms of both earnings and ROI, and that the transaction is further complicated by multiple factors. These include “accelerating operating expenses related to unproven [online] product<\/em>” and a “very modest<\/em>” replacement cycle. Given Scientific’s premium price (159% of WMS’ previous close of trading) “the uncertainties associated with WMS\u2019 newer products and initiative [and] an elevated operating expense structure related to its interactive initiatives<\/em>,” Greff expects neither a bidding war nor a new round of consolidation in the manufacturing sector.<\/p>\n

\"\"Bally Technologies<\/strong>, which sticks to its knitting, remains the darling of Wall Street<\/strong> at $49.25\/share. Greff lauds it for improved financial performance (including a 32% profit increase<\/a>), de-leveraging and strength in the gaming-operations sector. Bally hews to a conservative strategy, driven by server-based-gaming platforms, well-established operating systems, fanning out into tournament products, new boxes, etc. Unlike WMS and International Game Technology<\/strong> it’s not attempting to reinvent the mousetrap but improve the existing one. Deutsche Bank<\/strong>‘s Carlo Santarelli<\/strong> described yesterday’s quarterly earnings report “as expected with no stand out surprises, good or bad<\/em>,” but cautioned against deceleration later in the year, when the effect of large-scale VLT sales in Canada<\/strong> wears off.<\/p>\n

\"\"I wouldn’t say Wall Street’s<\/strong> reaction to Wynn Resorts<\/strong>‘ fourth-quarter report was ho-hum. Rather it was a case of the best surprise being no surprise. In Santarelli’s phrase, Wynn ‘split the fairway,’ with much-better-than-expected winter revenue in Las Vegas<\/strong>, up 12% despite low occupancy (79%), offsetting diminished margins in Macao<\/strong> (where long-abated Cotai Strip<\/strong> construction is finally underway, to the tune of $4 billion). Relatively weak performance in China<\/strong> means that former underachiever MGM Grand Paradise<\/strong> now enjoys larger Macao market share than Wynn except — a very important ‘except’ — in its share of table-game action. Corporate expenditures ($37 million-plus) were bloated by the ongoing legal battle with Kazuo Okada<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, Steve Wynn<\/strong> is forecasting 15%-19% ROI on his Philadelphia<\/strong> and Boston<\/strong> projects — if approved — which would be an impressive feat, given the associated costs and the prospect of East Coast saturation, especially<\/em> in Philly. In a pointed dig at prospective rivals<\/a> such as Penn National Gaming<\/strong> and Caesars Entertainment<\/strong>, El Steve attributed his domestic strength to distinctive hotel products vs. others’ “slots in a box,” as he put it. Let’s face it, when you see a Hollywood Casino<\/strong>, you think “slots in a box,” don’t you?<\/p>\n

While it may be<\/strong> a “national gambling behemoth,” Penn National currently finds itself undecided whether to bid<\/a> against MGM Resorts International<\/strong> for a casino in Prince George’s County<\/strong>. It would certainly be difficult until Penn finishes cloning itself, thereby circumventing Maryland<\/strong> law by keeping its Perryville<\/strong> casino in one entity and Rosecroft Raceway<\/strong> in another. Ergo, it will undoubtedly sue MGM, thereby purchasing time to complete its REIT-ization. What Penn’s doing is a transparent sham — but it may not be an unconstitutional sham. In better news for the state, Rocky Gap Lodge & Golf Resort<\/strong> (beneficiary of a sweetheart 50% tax rate) is on pace to open in May<\/a>, with 558 slots and 10 tables. The western-Maryland license has hung fire for so long that the clanging of those slots will be sweet music to lawmakers’ ears.<\/p>\n

If you’re coming<\/strong> to Las Vegas, brace yourself for a taxi strike<\/a>. This might be a good time to look into renting a car instead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“The twilight’s last reaming”?!?!? Christina Aguilera said it, I didn’t. Of all the proposition bets being made on Sunday’s “Big Game” (the favored Vegas euphemism), my favorite is how long it will take Alicia Keys to crawl through the National … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[65,77,28,14,4,29,22,62,72,112,11,69,95,160,92,74,32,19,38,89],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10430"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10430"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10430\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10432,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10430\/revisions\/10432"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10430"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10430"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10430"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}