{"id":14,"date":"2008-11-03T20:15:00","date_gmt":"2008-11-04T00:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/blogs\/dmckee\/index.cfm\/2008\/11\/3\/Senate-prediction-feeling-good"},"modified":"2008-11-03T20:15:00","modified_gmt":"2008-11-04T00:15:00","slug":"senate-prediction-feeling-good","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/senate-prediction-feeling-good\/","title":{"rendered":"Senate prediction: feeling good"},"content":{"rendered":"

I've been checking Intrade's election "futures" markets<\/a> and, if you "buy" Sen. John McCain<\/strong> at 9.9 you could collect on the longshot of a lifetime. (I'm of the pessimistic "I'll believe an Obama win when I see it and not one second before" persuasion.) Unless, that is, you want to go waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay<\/em> out an Aleutians-length limb and buy Ted Stevens<\/strong> "futures" (which is an ironic term, seeing as Sen. Stevens appears to have no future whatsoever — at least none that don't involve a long series of numbers across his back).<\/p>\n

I notice that Intrade's odds have reversed on the Al Franken<\/strong>\/Sen. Norm Coleman<\/strong> slugfest in Minnesota<\/strong>, while the trends in all the other ones I profiled last week have solidified. (Reform Party<\/strong> candidate Dean Barkley<\/strong> is a respected figure and has made a robust showing in the polls but is doomed to be an also-ran yet again.)<\/p>\n

So I see no reason to amend my prediction:<\/strong> Dems gain six seats, for a total of 55 (plus Bernie Sanders<\/strong>), but Coleman comes from behind late in the fourth quarter to prevent further GOP erosion.<\/p>\n

Forget Tim Pawlenty<\/strong>; if Coleman pulls this out I expect him to be the Minnesotan to start showing up on the futures markets as a contender for 2012.<\/p>\n

Eighteen months later<\/strong> … <\/strong>Believe it or not, it's been 18 months since Michelle Obama<\/strong> made her first campaign visit to Nevada<\/strong>. Yours truly was detailed to cover that June '07 stump speech — actually more of a marketing effort to raise people's comfort level with the Obama "brand" — which I sandwiched between CineVegas<\/strong> screenings. So how does today's visit<\/a> compare to what seems like 18 years ago<\/a>?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I've been checking Intrade's election "futures" markets and, if you "buy" Sen. John McCain at 9.9 you could collect on the longshot of a lifetime. (I'm of the pessimistic "I'll believe an Obama win when I see it and not … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[13,26,43],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/stiffs-and-georges\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}