Did you miss me? It’s only been 5 years.
I’m so excited to be back and to catch up with my LVA peeps. Much has happened around Neighborhood Realty in the past few years – more on that later.
When we left off circa 2013, the market was still dominated by foreclosures and short sales. Those were the days – when you were buying vacation homes for $100k and high rise condos for less. By the end of the year prices were soaring and the Valley saw appreciation over 20%.
As this cool graph shows, we started off 2014 selling about 340 REOs (foreclosed properties) and 370 short sales each month. Jump ahead to the year that just ended and you’ll see that we’re selling just a handful of REOs and short sales each month. So when investors call me now looking for a foreclosure – well, you can imagine how that conversation goes. We can find REOs, but there’s a lot of competition for these.
(graph courtesy of SalesTraq)
So what’s selling now? Traditional sales of single family homes and highrise condos, both new builds and resales, dominate the market. With vintage downtown homes and highrise condos gaining in popularity, you can now actually be near your favorite poker room north of Sahara. Of course, you can find vacation homes and more highrise condos to the south – and be closer to the Raiders and the Golden Knights. What the hell, even the Aces. And that’s not to mention the rest of this huge valley…
Downtown is hot! Some of the hottest neighborhoods are between Sahara and Charleston, to the east of the I-15. John S. Park, the first subdivision in Las Vegas and home to some of my favorite vintage homes, is minutes from the Arts District, Fremont Street and some great off-Strip restaurants. Further to the south, Southridge is seeing the same revitalization. So let’s begin the year with a quick look at a downtown market update.
Overall, this area is still affordable for single family residences. Prices were rising quickly in these neighborhoods early in 2018, By the end of 2018 the prices were still rising but not quite as rapidly as earlier in the year.
As for me – Neighborhood Realty moved from Green Valley to downtown to be near the excitement. My son Jordan Camacho, who joined me in 2010, became a partner and co-broker in 2014. We’ve been working on some of our own real estate projects, both commercial and residential. And I’m happy as hell to be talking with you again.
Never miss another post
Does it make even the remotest sense to buy a house/condo in Vegas now, at the height of an irrational boom market? I know that a realtor’s answer to that question is always “yes,” but surely the current buying frenzy means that anyone plunking down their cash now is making the same mistake so many people did in 2003-2005. You NEVER want to buy at the peak of the market, whether it’s property, cattle, bananas, or cocaine.
ALL the signs of a recession and market implosion are there, just as they were in 2005. There will be a LOT of people holding the bag of an underwater mortgage in 2025.
The factor that isn’t being examined by most people is that Vegas is reaching physical capacity in terms of infrastructure (the traffic is getting rapidly, dramatically worse), services (the horror of the school system and the feeble, corrupt incompetence of the police), and the public treasury is being stretched thin. Rather than build parks or improve public transit, billions of dollars are being wasted on a foobaw stadium. The quality of life in Vegas used to be pretty good–it still is to some extent, but I’m seeing an imminent tipover and rapid decline. And if you pay $400,000 for a house that winds up being worth $285,000 five years later, where does that leave you when you discover that Sin City isn’t all it’s cracked up to be?
In today’s insanely volatile economic and political climate, it’s a horribly risky gamble to buy property ANYWHERE, but doing so in a boomtown environment like Vegas is just plain nuts.
Right on!
Most people cannot qualify for the overpriced newly built homes. I moved to Henderson in July 2017. The same houses brochure i got in Cadence are up 50 to 70k in one year.
I was so pumped to buy a new house then.
Now, with all the price cuts i keep following on Zillow ( i saved a ton of houses to keep track ) i decided to wait. Not jumping on a 300k house even though it is tempting.
I guess it is a wait and see game now.
Thank you
Hi Karim, We are seeing prices drop just a bit; typical when you return from a seller’s market to a healthier market with sufficient inventory. It’s not just in Las Vegas. The best deals are usually found in resales, but consider money saved through energy savings from newer appliances, newer building codes, lower maintenance costs, etc. If you decide to consider a new build you can negotiate with the builder for incentives that might make a new build more comparable to a resale, all things considered.
Kevin, professional Realtors would say yes for good reason – over time, real estate appreciates. Those Realtors would also tell you to buy low and sell high – sounds easy, but I wouldn’t recommend investing in real estate unless you know what you’re doing or you have a trusted advisor who knows what he/she is doing. Sounds like you’re down on Las Vegas in general – wish you the best!
Well, Robin, that USED to be true. For several decades, you could be confident that after you bought a house, it would slowly appreciate, and at a rate that was modestly and comfortably above the interest rate that you had to pay on your mortgage (or the opportunity cost of having paid cash). That’s no longer the case. Housing, as an investment, is VOLATILE. The political (which I’m not allowed to discuss here, apparently) and economic climate these days is like the ocean during a hurricane. Demand for housing can skyrocket or plummet depending on a number of factors that you can’t possibly anticipate, including the decisions of a bunch of powerful old white men 2,000 miles away.
But yeah, millions of people learned the falsity of “real estate is a good investment” the hard way a decade ago. I strongly suspect they’ll have to learn it again. The tragedy is that one such mistake, and due to the savage power of the credit reporting agencies, you’re ruined for life.
I definitely am down on Vegas as a place to live, because I lived there back when it was a great place to do so. Now, it’s so-so at best, and getting rapidly worse.
Thanks for your comment, Kevin. Let’s agree to disagree.
Hi, You helped us buy in 2009 when the downturn made buys great! Wondered where you had gone!
Dave, how are you?! I got really busy. Built a midsize brokerage with 39 agents and did a 2-year stint as Corporate Broker with Keller Williams for 2 years. I moved Neighborhood Realty downtown 2 years ago, 6 blocks from the tavern we’re breaking ground on soon. If you get downtown, please pop in to say hello – the coffee is always on and I’d love to hear what you’re up to. It doesn’t appear you’ve retired. Please give my best to Jeannie – it’s been forever!